Oregon vs. Eastern Washington Complete Game Preview
The narrative surrounding Oregon's season-opener is so obvious we barely need to write it.
New starting quarterback Vernon Adams, who transferred this offseason after three successful years at Eastern Washington, will make his Ducks debut against…Eastern Washington.
Every other player will take a back seat to Adams, who faces the dual-pressure gauntlet of replacing Marcus Mariota, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, while also playing a team filled with former friends and teammates who in some ways consider him a traitor.
But, of course, there's also the macro-storyline of Oregon's Pac-12 title defense and quest for another trip to the College Football Playoff. Eastern Washington beat Oregon State two years ago and lost a 59-52 shootout against Washington in 2014. It is not afraid of playing a Pac-12 opponent.
Oregon should still beat them thoroughly, but the Eagles won't crumble to the floor like some typical FCS tomato can. In that way, they're a useful diagnostic opponent before the Ducks travel to East Lansing for a Week 2 showdown against Michigan State.
Expect this team to learn a lot about itself.
Date: Saturday, September 5
Time: 8 p.m. ET (5 p.m. local)
Location: Autzen Stadium; Eugene, Oregon
TV: Pac-12 Network
Radio: Oregon IMG; ESPN Spokane 700 AM
Line: No line posted at Odds Shark
Note: All recruiting info refers to the 247Sports composite rankings.
Oregon Keys to Victory
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Keep Things Simple on Offense
Academic issues prevented Vernon Adams from joining practice until mid-August. He took off-field steps toward preparing for the season while he sorted out one final grade at Eastern Washington, but he's still only a few weeks into playing with new teammates, executing the playbook, making pre-snap reads, etc.
There is no reason for the Ducks to complicate things offensively. They are bigger, stronger, faster and more explosive at every level. All they need to do is run the simple stuff—the things Adams already knows with confidence—and they should score on nearly every possession.
Eastern Washington beat Oregon State in 2013 and hung with Washington last season, but in those games, its defense allowed more than 1,050 yards and 105 points. It can score at an FBS level—or at least it could with Adams under center—but it couldn't hold up on defense.
At some point, Oregon will need to open up the playbook and push Adams as far as he can go. It can't babysit its quarterback forever.
But it can for at least one week.
Shut Down Cooper Kupp
Adams was Eastern Washington's biggest name, but a strong argument could be made in favor of Cooper Kupp, a junior wide receiver, having been the most talented player on the team. He is just as overqualified for the FCS level as Adams was.
As a freshman in 2013, Kupp caught 93 passes for 1,691 yards and 21 touchdowns. He followed that up last season with 73 catches, 1,013 yards and 13 touchdowns. And if you think his stats are inflated by playing with Adams or in Eastern Washington's offense—both of which contain elements of truth—you should take a closer look at his highlights. He's exactly as good as advertised.
Oregon loses starting cornerbacks Ifo Ekpre-Olomu and Troy Hill from last season, and will thus have to rely on sophomores Chris Seisay and Arrion Springs on the perimeter. Neither has Kupp's experience (although Seisay did replace Ekpre-Olomu in the starting lineup for the College Football Playoff), and the depth chart just gets younger behind them.
Stopping Eastern Washington begins with stopping Kupp. He is not someone Oregon can take for granted.
Eastern Washington Keys to Victory
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Forcefeed Cooper Kupp
It's hard to overstate Kupp's importance, so we'll mention him again. And this won't be the last time.
At 6'2", 195 pounds, he has the size to create mismatches against smaller cornerbacks, but he also has the speed and runs precise enough routes to get open against guys his height. His father and grandfather both played in the NFL, so you know he has the pedigree, and his 21 touchdown receptions as a freshman broke an FCS record held by Randy Moss.
As for his performance against Pac-12 competition: Kupp caught five passes for 119 yards and two touchdowns against Oregon State two years ago, and eight passes for 145 yards and three touchdowns against Washington in 2014. Each of those teams had a top-100 NFL draft pick at cornerback (Steven Nelson and Marcus Peters, respectively). He wasn't playing Washington State.
With Adams on the other sideline, Kupp becomes doubly important. If Eastern Washington wins, it will be because he played the game of his life. There are enough solid weapons around him (Kendrick Bourne, Shaq Hill) to keep Oregon from rolling coverage Kupp's direction.
He will have the opportunity to make plays.
Hold Its Own on Standard Downs
Oregon will do its Oregon thing on standard downs: rushing to the line, preventing Eastern Washington from subbing, running downhill against a defense it thinks is both tired and undersized.
Eastern Washington will never stop this for a sustained portion of the game, but it can hold its own and force Oregon into third downs. It needs a big performance from nose tackle Matthew Sommer, who has the size (6'5", 310 lbs) to give Oregon problems as long as he's conditioned enough to last an entire series without subbing.
Every 3rd-and-long Eastern Washington forces is a massive victory, and so too is every 3rd-and-medium. The more it can put the game in Adams' hands—despite how much talent it knows he has—the better.
Its only chance is exploiting his inexperience.
Oregon Players to Watch
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QB Vernon Adams
How could it be anyone else? Even if you ignore the Eastern Washington thing—which you won't because it's such a good story—you still have the case of a 6'0" FCS transfer replacing the reigning Heisman Trophy winner. In his only fully healthy season at Eastern Washington (2013), Adams threw for 4,994 yards, rushed for 605 more and scored 61 total touchdowns, which are (not even in a) video game numbers. On paper, it seems like he can pull a solid Mariota impression, but there's no way to know until we see him.
WR Bralon Addison
Bralon Addison caught 61 passes for 890 yards two seasons ago, trailing only Josh Huff for the team lead in both categories. He missed last season with a torn ACL and is currently listed as a backup on the depth chart, but he's the best receiver on the team when healthy. Are the Ducks simply easing him into action? Or does his placement on the second team signal bad news about his recovery? Getting him back to full speed is imperative moving forward.
DE DeForest Buckner
DeForest Buckner (6'7", 290 lbs) is too big for many NFL tackles, way too big for most FBS tackles and should thus be way to big for Eastern Washington's tackles. He was always more consistent than former teammate Arik Armstead, but he still doesn't dominate or post the numbers one expects from someone so big, strong and talented. Collapsing the pocket on a new starting quarterback will throw Eastern Washington's offense—its best chance of winning this game—out of whack. Buckner should be living in the backfield.
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Eastern Washington Key Players
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DE Samson Ebukam
Samson Ebukam led Eastern Washington with 7.5 sacks and 15.5 tackles for loss last season, per the team's official website. He's a "Buck" end in the 4-2-5 defense with the size (6'3", 240 lbs), length and motor to cause problems off the edge. His ability to force negative plays will be important for an EWU defense whose best chance is knocking Oregon off schedule and forcing the Ducks to covert 3rd-and-longs with a new quarterback.
WR Cooper Kupp
One more time for Kupp, whom I wouldn't spend so much time hyping unless I felt confident he would prove me right. Oregon's biggest weakness is its cornerbacks, and although Seisay and Springs have a world of potential, they might not be ready for this challenge right out of the gate. Kupp is better than any receiver Oregon will face in Week 2 against Michigan State.
QB Jordan West
Adams missed four games last year with injury, which allowed Jordan West to gain experience. Who knew how important that would become? West is a pocket passer with better size (6'4", 220 lbs) but less mobility than Adams, which should lead to more sacks and fewer moments of improvised brilliance. He completed 86 of 142 passes for 1,072 yards, nine touchdowns and one interception last season.
What They're Saying
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Oregon
Offensive coordinator Scott Frost on the pressure of replacing Mariota, per George Schroeder of USA Today:
"The honest truth is Marcus bailed us out of three or four games last year with his play. I don’t think with the guys around him the quarterback has to be Superman to make it go, but you never know how the season is gonna go.
[Adams and backup Jeff Lockie are] coming into a tough situation, following a guy that was the best player in college football. If you make a bad throw or have a mediocre game, people aren’t used to seeing that from the kid that played last year. But you’ve got to block all that out and be the best player you can be.
"
Secondary coach John Neal on his initial impression of Kupp, per Hayden Kim of the Daily Emerald, Oregon's student newspaper:
"Well, he’s Superman. He’s got some of the greatest stats I’ve ever seen and he’s one of those players that when you watch him, he’s in complete command of everything. He’s like a quarterback because I notice him constantly shifting his hands and talking to people telling them what to do. The offense runs through, so that’s a lot of burden on him. But it’s easy for him. He’s going to find a way to get open. With his strength and size, we’ve got our work cut out for us.
"
Eastern Washington
Offensive lineman Clay DeBord on the drama of losing Adams and the growth of West, per Evan Closky of KREM.com:
"I'm going to call a spade a spade. There was a little bit of turmoil in the offseason and there's no sense in hiding that or shying away from that. I really think (West) is going to surprise a lot of people this year. He kind of got his feet wet after the four games Vernon was out, but he's been looking good this camp.
"
Kupp on the Eagles' preseason attitude, per Jim Allen of the Spokesman-Review: "I think the team is hungrier than I've seen in my time at Eastern."
Prediction
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Oregon will ease Adams into action with a healthy early dose of running back Royce Freeman. If they are able to establish the run, which there's no reason to think they won't, it will force Eastern Washington's secondary to cheat and leave the back end open for big plays.
Eastern Washington doesn't have the secondary talent to run with the likes of Addison, Byron Marshall, Dwayne Stanford, Charles Nelson and reigning SPARQ national champion Kirk Merritt. Especially if their mind is on Freeman, the Eagles will let open receivers streak across the field, and Adams will take advantage of easy throws.
Basically, Oregon will score as many points as it needs to win comfortably. Depending on how Eastern Washington's offense performs, that could be 40, 50, 60 or even 70. Kupp is amazing and will make a few plays, but not enough to keep this one close.
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