Waiver Wire Week 1: Top Pickups, Drops and Expert Analysis

The waiver wire heading into Week 1 isn't the free-for-all that we'll see for the rest of the season. You won't find many game-changing players available after you draft, at least not that we know of at this point in time.

In the coming slides, you'll see a mixture of players to grab based on their Week 1 matchups (Tyrod Taylor, Heath Miller) and others who will be some of the best available options and have the most long-term value (Matt Jones, Phillip Dorsett).

Each week, my defensive suggestions will almost solely be based on the game for that week, but in the case of a team like the Indianapolis Colts, it's looking even further down the road. Personally, I tend to stream my defenses on a weekly basis, but if we're seeing a unit become a reliable option no matter what the matchup, I'll make sure to point it out.

In an effort to find the players who can help the most people, I'll be featuring ownership percentages for both ESPN and Yahoo leagues. This will give you an idea of how readily available each player is to grab off the waiver wire.

This will likely be the shortest version of the waiver wire I write all season, but there are a few names who could pay off in a big way, and we won't be talking drops until next week. It's time to take a look at the best names to grab heading into the start of the 2015 NFL season.

Quarterbacks

Andrew Weber-USA TODAY Sports

Tyrod Taylor, BUF

Percent Owned: ESPN - 12.6, Yahoo – 8

The Buffalo Bills gave Taylor a fair chance to win the starting job and he rose to the occasion, so his reward is facing Andrew Luck in his first NFL start. Luckily, he’ll be doing so at home and with a defense that is good enough to make this game interesting.

For Taylor, his legs will be a big key, and that can be a bonus over some other options on the waiver wire heading into Week 1. Of course, if the Bills fail to slow Luck and the Colts offense down, Taylor will be throwing it more, and he certainly has the arm to do so along with a big weapon in Sammy Watkins.

Taylor faces a beatable Colts defense, although his best chance at strong fantasy numbers probably results in a win for the visiting Colts since he’ll be playing from behind, and that’s looking more and more like the case if LeSean McCoy can’t go, as is being reported by Josina Anderson of ESPN.

Week 1 Projection: 225-235 passing yards, one passing touchdown and 40-50 rushing yards

Joe Flacco, BAL

Percent Owned: ESPN - 45.8, Yahoo – 66

I was surprised to see Flacco available so widely heading into the season, but that could be a result of a career that hasn’t featured many fantasy-relevant years. However, Flacco might have his best chance to be a fantasy contributor with Marc Trestman taking over the Baltimore Ravens offense, since we saw both Josh McCown and Jay Cutler post strong numbers under Trestman in Chicago.

For this week, Flacco and the Ravens head to Denver in a rematch of the season opener from two seasons ago. Not only have the Ravens changed offensive coordinators since then, but so have the Broncos along with their new head coach, Gary Kubiak. This may not be the same high-powered Broncos offense we’ve seen in the Peyton Manning era, but it will still be formidable, so the Ravens should have their hands full.

Flacco won’t have Breshad Perriman, and other than Steve Smith, it’s a pretty weak receiving corps, so it’s tough to get too excited about him, although Justin Forsett will certainly contribute in the passing game. Picking up Flacco might be more of a long-term move to get a reliable backup for the season.

Week 1 Projection: 250-260 passing yards, two passing touchdowns

Marcus Mariota, TEN

Percent Owned: ESPN – 34.5, Yahoo - 42 

I wasn’t sold on Mariota in Tennessee coming into the preseason, but by the end of August, he convinced me that maybe things won’t be so bad with him leading the way. From a fantasy perspective, Mariota fits my look for legs theory because he can give you the bonus of rushing yards that others will not.

Opening the season in Tampa Bay put Mariota in a battle with Jameis Winston and the Buccaneers, so while it’s a high-profile matchup, it’s also a winnable game for the Titans against a defense that is far from dangerous. He’ll see the Cleveland Browns, Bills and Miami Dolphins in the first six weeks, so you may not want to risk using the rookie against those tough defenses.

I may not love Mariota’s weapons, but after a solid preseason, he has me believing he can overcome the lack of high-end talent around him and elevate this team.

Week 1 Projection: 220-230 passing yards, two passing touchdowns and 40-50 rushing yards

Running Backs

Christian Petersen/Getty Images

Christine Michael, DAL

Percent Owned: ESPN – 17.5, Yahoo – 11

The battle between Joseph Randle and Darren McFadden was never really settled in the preseason, and my concern about an outside challenger entering the fray came to fruition when the Cowboys traded for Michael.

As a second-round pick in 2013, Michael looked like he’d have a chance to be the successor to Marshawn Lynch, but Lynch never slowed down and Michael never earned a bigger role. That’s why I can’t get too excited about his chances in Dallas. The Seahawks gave up on him the same week they got rid of Robert Turbin and signed 34-year-old Fred Jackson. 

Dallas looks like it’ll have an ugly running back by committee all season, and according to executive vice president Stephen Jones and head coach Jason Garrett, per David Helman of DallasCowboys.com, Michael isn’t expected to be active in Week 1. Adding him now is hoping you eventually end up with the Cowboys RB with the most touches behind a great offensive line.

Week 1 Projection: Inactive

Matt Jones, WAS

Percent Owned: ESPN – 20.7, Yahoo – 19

Jones falls into the category of players you want to grab now for the long term since I don’t foresee him having a major impact early in the season.

Moving to quarterback Kirk Cousins should help stabilize the offense, but he’s not that good, so I’m still expecting the Redskins to bank on their rushing attack to carry them throughout the season. While Alfred Morris will open the season as the starter, he’s in a contract year and could cede carries to the rookie over time. In fact, Jones has a chance to cut into the goal-line and short-yardage carries right out of the gate. 

I doubt Jones has a big role in the opener, and it’s a rough matchup against a good Dolphins defense.

Week 1 Projection: Eight carries, 34 yards

Josh Robinson, IND

Percent Owned: ESPN – 1.6, Yahoo – 1

Adding Robinson is another long-term move and one you should definitely make if you have Frank Gore. With the Colts deciding to move on from Dan Herron, Robinson figures to be Gore’s handcuff, and that’s important with the veteran entering his 11th season. 

Robinson returned to practice on September 7, per Kevin Bowen of Colts.com, after suffering a concussion in the team’s final preseason game. That puts Robinson on track to play in the opener against the Bills.

This is still Gore’s job, and Robinson will likely only see a few carries here and there to keep Gore fresh, although as the clear handcuff, Robinson would have good value if Gore were to go down at any point this season.

Week 1 Projection: Four carries, 15 yards

Wide Receivers

Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

Brandon Coleman, NO

Percent Owned: ESPN – 13.6, Yahoo – 23

Coleman has ascended from being an undrafted free agent in 2014 to one of the Saints’ top three wide receivers entering 2015, which is why it’s so baffling he’s widely available just days before the start of the season.

Could it be that he had just a single catch in the preseason until the finale, when he hauled in four receptions for 82 yards working with the backups? The Saints have a clear need for size after trading away Jimmy Graham, so Coleman has a chance to be a red-zone threat. Plus, Marques Colston hasn’t been the healthiest player, meaning Coleman could be needed for an even bigger role if the veteran were to go down again.

As it pertains to this week, Coleman will make his debut against a good Cardinals secondary, so he won’t have it easy. However, playing with Drew Brees certainly helps, as will the attention paid to Colston and Brandin Cooks. This may not be a breakout week for Coleman, but you’ll be happy you grabbed him before that happens.

Week 1 Projection: Three receptions, 41 yards 

Rueben Randle, NYG

Percent Owned: ESPN – 27.6, Yahoo – 37

Randle may not have been very efficient last season, but the Giants had to keep him involved behind Odell Beckham Jr. in the absence of Victor Cruz. That absence has a good chance of continuing into Week 1 with Cruz battling a calf injury that continues to keep him out of practice and running underwater to rehab, per Ralph Vacchiano of the New York Daily News.

Even when Cruz gets back on the field, there’s no guarantee he’ll be the same player we saw before last year’s devastating knee injury. I fully expected Randle to play on the outside with Beckham while Cruz worked out of the slot. Not only does that look like it will happen this week, but it could keep Randle in the starting lineup going forward.

Randle dealt with a knee injury during the preseason, but he is healthy heading into a pretty favorable matchup against the Cowboys on Sunday night. Grab him while you still can, because he could be on top of the waiver wire if he’s still available after Week 1.

Week 1 Projection: Six receptions, 72 yards, one touchdown

Phillip Dorsett, IND

Percent Owned: ESPN – 10.1, Yahoo – 13

Who doesn’t want a piece of the Colts offense? T.Y. Hilton and Andre Johnson may lead the way in their receiving corps, but when a first-round pick like Dorsett appears to have the third spot locked up, I’m taking notice.

Initially thought to be the eventual replacement for Hilton, Dorsett didn’t figure to have a big role in the offense as a rookie, but after Hilton signed a long-term deal, the expectations for Dorsett increased. With Hilton and Johnson grabbing most of the attention, Dorsett could be a menace for opposing defenses to deal with and has the speed to be a legitimate deep threat.

Dorsett can be more than that and would get a big bump if Hilton or Johnson were to go down. He’s another long-term add who can pay big dividends as the season goes on.

Week 1 Projection: Three receptions, 52 yards

Tight Ends

Ed Mulholland-USA TODAY Sports

Heath Miller, PIT

Percent Owned: ESPN – 39.2, Yahoo – 43

Miller is as boring as it gets for fantasy. However, he has the trust of Ben Roethlisberger, and that’s important, especially with Martavis Bryant suspended for the first four weeks of the season and Le’Veon Bell suspended for the first two games. 

Other than Antonio Brown, Miller is Big Ben’s most trusted receiver who’ll actually be on the field for the opener in Foxborough on Thursday night. New England’s secondary is nowhere near as good as it was last season, and the Steelers will definitely be taking to the air with Bell unavailable. It’s not an exciting play, but Miller is reliable and is always a red-zone threat. 

Week 1 Projection: Three receptions, 31 yards, one touchdown

Brent Celek, PHI

Percent Owned: ESPN – 1.8, Yahoo – 2

Even with Zach Ertz’s groin injury, no one really bothered to draft Celek, as evidenced by how he’s available in almost every league coming into Week 1. Ertz’s status is still very much in question, so as a believer in the Eagles offense, Celek could be worth taking a shot on this week with a great matchup against the Atlanta Falcons.

Obviously, you’ll have to monitor Ertz’s injury recovery throughout the week, especially with the extra day to prepare, but since he missed so much time in the preseason and may not be ahead of Celek on the depth chart even if he is ready, Celek isn’t a bad reach play if you’re desperate. 

Week 1 Projection: Four receptions, 43 yards

Larry Donnell, NYG

Percent Owned: ESPN – 57.9, Yahoo, 50

I’m not the biggest Donnell fan. However, like the other two players on this list, he fell outside of my top 15 and is widely available, so based on this week’s matchup against the Cowboys, he may be worth grabbing.

With Victor Cruz possibly out due to a lingering calf injury, Donnell could be a factor against a beatable Cowboys defense. He tailed off at the end of last season but was actually productive enough to be considered a fantasy starter for most of the year. Once again, I’m only considering him this week if I’m streaming tight ends and don’t like who’s on my roster. 

Week 1 Projection: Four receptions, 40 yards

Defenses

Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

Indianapolis Colts

Percent Owned: ESPN – 10, Yahoo – 36

If you didn’t invest in one of the better defenses, you’ll likely be playing the matchups on a weekly basis, so the Colts could be worth a look for not just this week, but over the first five weeks of the season.

I don’t think they have a particularly good defense other than a few individual talents like cornerback Vontae Davis, but I expect them to be playing with the lead a lot in matchups against the Bills, New York Jets, Titans, Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans to open the season.

That means those teams will be throwing more out of desperation, and with nothing more than average and/or unproven quarterbacks, turnovers could be plentiful. 

The Bills don’t pose a major threat with Tyrod Taylor under center, but they’ll be especially vulnerable if LeSean McCoy has to sit out, which is a concern, per Josina Anderson of ESPN. That’s even more reason to get the Colts this week and keep them around for the next month.

Week 1 Projection: Three sacks, two interceptions, one fumble recovery, 20-23 points allowed

Minnesota Vikings

Percent Owned: ESPN – 31.5, Yahoo – 14

If you were one of the last teams to take a defense in your draft, the Vikings were a sneaky pick with head coach Mike Zimmer entering his second season with an improving group.

Unfortunately, they face the Detroit Lions, San Diego Chargers and Broncos in the first month of the season, but not before opening the year with a nice matchup against the San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football. I’m expecting Zimmer to throw everything he has at Colin Kaepernick, and I don’t expect Kap to handle it well. Decision-making isn’t a strong point for him, and the 49ers offensive line is suspect.

Week 1 Projection: Five sacks, two interceptions, one fumble recovery, 15-18 points allowed

Jacksonville Jaguars

Percent Owned: ESPN – 1, Yahoo – 1

This is a deep reach, and you’ll be discarding them after the first week, but only after they have a chance at producing some solid fantasy numbers at home against the Carolina Panthers.

Carolina already lost Kelvin Benjamin to a torn ACL, and while Devin Funchess seems to be over his hamstring injury, head coach Ron Rivera said the rookie isn’t even a starter yet, per Joseph Person of the Charlotte Observer. That leaves Cam Newton with Philly Brown and Ted Ginn as the top two wide receivers.

Add in some injury concerns on the offensive line, and the Jaguars could dial up some extra pressure, even with some injuries up front.

Week 1 Projection: Four sacks, two interceptions, two fumble recoveries, 18-21 points allowed

Kickers

Justin Edmonds/Getty Images

Brandon McManus, DEN

Percent Owned: ESPN – 56.1, Yahoo – 15 

Typically, I’ll stream kickers on a weekly basis, but if I can get one on a good team who should always get opportunities regardless of the matchup, I’ll try to snag him.

McManus falls into that category after winning the job in camp. Denver’s offense is still good, and kicking at Mile High is a big advantage, especially for long-range bonuses. Grabbing McManus is a no-brainer.

Josh Lambo, SD

Percent Owned: ESPN – 0, Yahoo – 2

In a big surprise, Lambo beat out Nick Novak for the kicking job in San Diego. Lambo has a big leg and was a soccer player in MLS.

San Diego should have an efficient, though not necessarily great, offense with Philip Rivers leading the way, so Lambo should have plenty of chances and clearly proved himself to the Chargers by beating out the accurate veteran.

Mike Nugent, CIN

Percent Owned: ESPN – 2.6, Yahoo – 8

Before last season, Nugent was a reliable kicker, and he should get back to that this season. The Bengals open their season in Oakland in a game they should win, so Nugent should get enough chances to be a solid fantasy option. 

As for the season, I’m fully expecting the Bengals to run it a ton and limit how much they throw it with Andy Dalton. Stalled drives will happen under Dalton, but as long as they get in field-goal range, Nugent will get his chances.