Texas Football: Do Longhorns Have Legit Chance to Win Big 12 in 2015?
The Big 12's power balance rounded off a complete flip last season when TCU joined Baylor as the conference's controversial co-champions.
The Horned Frogs, one of the two newcomers to the Big 12, completed a 12-1 season that few saw coming, especially considering their 4-8 record in 2013. And Baylor, the league's former doormat, grabbed a piece of the title with its second straight 11-win campaign.
Meanwhile, traditional powerhouses Texas and Oklahoma struggled in the new-look Big 12. While the Sooners completely failed to live up to lofty expectations with a 8-5 season, Texas stumbled to a 6-7 record in head coach Charlie Strong's first year.
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Now the Longhorns are looking up at the Horned Frogs—a team Texas has beaten 62 times with only 22 losses—and asking themselves, "Why not us?"
Texas wants to cut a path similar to TCU's and make an improbable Big 12 title run this fall. Like Gary Patterson did last season with the Horned Frogs, the Longhorns are also making the switch to a fast-paced spread attack and hoping to revitalize a dormant offense.
But does Texas have a legitimate chance at returning to conference glory this season? Let's take a close look at three important factors of TCU's dramatic turnaround and compare them to Texas in 2015.
Offensive renaissance
TCU quarterback Trevone Boykin went from struggling signal-caller who eventually lined up at receiver in 2013 to dual-threat devastator under new co-offensive coordinators Sonny Cumbie and Doug Meachem.
Texas will most likely stick with Tyrone Swoopes to start the season at quarterback, according to Bleacher Report's Zach Shelton. Like Boykin in 2013, Swoopes struggled as a starter, going 5-7 in a season that ended with the Longhorns only putting up 59 yards of total offense against Arkansas.
While he might not have as much athleticism as redshirt freshman Jerrod Heard, Swoopes is more comfortable in the spread offense—as are the rest of his offensive teammates from a state known for that scheme.
"I’m really excited about [the new offense]," Swoopes said, per Nick Castillo of the Dallas Morning News. "It’s pretty much what we’ve all done in high school. We’re all used to the up-tempo, no-huddle kind of the thing, so it’s just kind of getting us back to our ways."
Texas, however, didn't make any major coaching moves like TCU in order to implement a spread offense in the offseason.
Assistant head coach/quarterbacks coach Shawn Watson and offensive coordinator Joe Wickline ran a West Coast-style attack last season and will help orchestrate the switch in 2015.
According to Jeff Howe of Horns247, the "power spread" system that has been successful at Auburn and Ohio State is the intended goal for the no-huddle Horns, but the look sounds like it will be a work in progress.
"There's a lot of it that looks and would be similar, yes," Watson said, per Howe. "Some of it's different. It's really just our backgrounds coming together."
Just like TCU did in 2014, Texas has seven starters coming back from an offense that simply didn't perform in the previous season. The Longhorns have a veteran weapon at running back in Johnathan Gray, and the offensive line has experience—it just needs to develop its chemistry.
Wide receiver is an area where Texas needs new faces to step up and perform from day one. TCU's Josh Doctson led his team in receiving in 2013 and then followed it up with a 1,000-yard campaign in 2014. But Texas' leading returner out wide is No. 3 option Marcus Johnson, who only had 313 yards and one touchdown.
Texas might not be following TCU's offensive recipe for success down to the letter, but the same basic ingredients are there. It all starts with quarterback play in the gun-slinging Big 12, and Texas coaches say establishing confidence is the first priority for Swoopes and the rest of the offense.
"Confidence is everything in sports and when players have confidence they can play at a high level," wide receivers coach Jay Norvell said, per Howe. "We've seen it in this conference; people turn around quickly, and it's because their kids get confidence. They believe in what they're doing in a short amount of time."
Defensive experience
This is perhaps the biggest difference between TCU heading into 2014 and Texas heading into 2015.
While the offensive turnaround stole the show in Fort Worth, the Horned Frogs were able to rely on eight returning starters on defense.
Veteran names such as Paul Dawson, Marcus Mallet and Chris Hackett were key in TCU's improvement on the defensive side of the ball. The Horned Frogs' opponents averaged fewer than 20 points and 350 yards last season.
Like Patterson, Texas head coach Charlie Strong is known for his defense—and the Longhorns had a great year there last season. Eight returning starters came together under Strong and coordinator Vance Bedford to finish No. 26 nationally in total defense.
This year, however, Texas only has five returning starters on that side of the ball.
"This season's group could end up having six or more underclassmen on the field on any one play," Max Olson of ESPN.com wrote. "They will have to replace veterans like Jordan Hicks and Quandre Diggs, who got the job done right every time.
"Texas has future stars at all three levels of its defense, but there is going to be a learning curve when you’re playing a schedule this tough."
The defense will have to grow up quickly this season or else the Longhorns could see a drop-off in production.
Players such as true freshman linebacker Malik Jefferson have blue-chip talent, but they still haven't gone through the rigors of being a full-time starter at the college level. The hill looks like it could be too big to climb this season for the youthful 'Horns.
"They know how much work they've got to get done," Strong said, per Howe. "They know. They open their eyes and they see it."
As the offense goes through its major transition this year, Texas won't be able to lean on a veteran-laden defense, although the defensive line has some established faces. It's in a similar situation as the offense—lots of promise and potential, little success so far on the field.
The schedule
In order for Texas to win an outright Big 12 title—no confusing shared titles this year—it will most likely have to take two out of the three games against TCU, Oklahoma and Baylor.
Unfortunately, this young team won't be able to rely on a true home-field advantage for any of those major contests. This season, Texas travels to TCU and Baylor in addition to the annual neutral-site game against Oklahoma at the Cotton Bowl.
And while the nonconference games obviously won't determine the Big 12 race, Texas won't be able to ease into the schedule and build up the confidence Norvell said the offense needed.
While TCU and fellow co-champion Baylor opened last season with a trio of nonconference games in which they were double-digit favorites, Texas starts 2015 at College Football Playoff contender Notre Dame.
After a game against Rice, Texas hosts upstart Cal—who will really test the still-sorting secondary—before opening the Big 12 campaign against Oklahoma State.
Right after those contests is the double barrel of TCU and Oklahoma.
"Not only is this team replacing 10 starters, but it also has a tough nonconference schedule before it dives straight into some unforgiving Big 12 play," Shelton wrote. "Just because this team wants to improve doesn't mean it will."
This Texas team has a new attitude after Strong's tough first season in Austin. It will fight hard to prove the doubters wrong and make a turnaround similar to the ones from TCU, Auburn and even Ohio State in recent seasons.
But the schedule looks too brutal.
A successful 2015 season for Texas would be closing the gap between the Longhorns and the new-school powers in the Big 12. With this much youth, 2016 and beyond look bright if the offense can benefit from the system change and the defense can establish playmakers.
An upset victory—one that could ruin a rival's championship dreams—looks possible for this team. A Big 12 championship just doesn't.
All stats courtesy of CFBStats.com.
Justin Ferguson is a college football writer at Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @JFergusonBR.
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