Interesting Rumor

I saw an interesting rumor floated on mlbtraderumors.com today, suggesting there might be a possibility of a Matt Cain for Prince Fielder trade this off-season.

The thinking behind such a rumor is obvious: the Giants need a big bat, and the Brewers need starting pitching.  Also, Cain and Fielder each have two years left before they become free agents.

If the trade were Cain for Fielder straight up, the move would make sense for the Giants.  They desperately need a big bat hit clean-up behind Sandoval.

Obviously, it would hurt to give up Cain, and the Giants would likely have to resort to the free agent market to get a fifth starter, since it’s no guarantee that Madison Bumgarner will be ready next April, and it’s highly unlikely that Randy Johnson will be pitching for the Giants next year.  Free agent pitchers too often cost more than what you get in return.

Also, looking at the Brewers’ major league roster and their AAA and AA rosters (Nashville and Huntsville, respectively), it looks to me that if the Brewers were to trade Fielder, they’d be in the same boat the Giants are in this year, with no big bat to hit behind Ryan Braun.

I don’t see how you trade a player like Fielder unless he’s going to become a free agent at the end of the season or you have a big bat stuck at AAA without a place to play at the major league level.

It’s also a big risk to trade Matt Cain at this point in his career, unless you already have more than five starters.  If Bumgarner is ready by the 2010 All-Star Break, and all the Giants’ other starters are healthy, that might be a more realistic time for a block-buster trade involving Cain.

In short, I don’t feel strongly that either team could be certain of getting enough in return to justify trading the player they’d have to give up.  For that reason, I don’t see this trade happening this off-season.