NASCAR at Bristol 2015: Complete Preview, Prediction for Irwin Tools Night Race
They’re the three words NASCAR fans love to hear:
“It’s Bristol, baby!”
And especially when it’s the annual Irwin Tools Night Race at NASCAR’s most notorious bullring.
Saturday night’s race will be one of the most compelling of the season thus far. With three races left before the start of the Chase for the Sprint Cup, more than a dozen Chase-eligible drivers are still in contention.
But there’s one caveat: With only a few exceptions, virtually each one must win one of those remaining races to make the Chase.
Period. End of story.
So don’t be surprised if the usual wild and woolly Saturday night race at Bristol ratchets up the intensity and craziness. With so much on the line, would you expect anything less?
After all, it’s Bristol, baby!
By the Numbers: Bristol Motor Speedway
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Irwin Tools Night Race
Place: Bristol Motor Speedway
Date: Saturday, Aug. 22
Time: 7:30 p.m. (ET)
TV: NBCSN, 7 p.m. (ET)
Radio: Performance Racing Network, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio
Distance: 500 laps, 266.5 miles (.533-mile short track)
Defending winner: Joey Logano
Youngest winner: Kyle Busch on March 25, 2007 (21 years, 10 months, 23 days)
Oldest winner: Dale Earnhardt on August 28, 1999 (48 years, 3 months, 30 days)
Youngest pole winner: Logano on March 21, 2010 (19 years, 9 months, 25 days)
Oldest pole winner: Harry Gant on August 27, 1994 (54 years, 7 months, 17 days)
Most wins: Darrell Waltrip (12); active—Jeff Gordon, Kyle Busch, Kurt Busch (5 each)
Most poles: Cale Yarborough and Mark Martin (9 each); active—Gordon (5)
Most top-fives: Richard Petty, Waltrip (26 each); active—Gordon (17)
Most top-10s: Petty (37); active—Gordon (25)
Lead lap finishes: Gordon (30)
Laps completed: Terry Labonte (26,026); active—Gordon (21,529)
Laps led: Yarborough (4,305); active—Gordon (2,730)
Most race starts at Bristol: Petty (60); active—Ken Schrader (50)
Race record: Charlie Glotzbach (101.074 mph) on July 11, 1971
Qualifying record: Kevin Harvick (131.362 mph) on August 23, 2014
Best average start: Fred Lorenzen (3.250); active—Gordon (7.667)
Best average finish: Dick Hutcherson (2.40); active—Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (9.200)
Track Notes
- Total number of races at Bristol: 109
- Total number of different pole winners in Bristol history: 48
- Races won from pole: 23
- Last race won from pole: Matt Kenseth on April 19, 2015
- Number of race winners at Bristol: 42
- DNFs (most): G.C. Spencer (20); active—Joe Nemechek (14)
- DNFs (least): Paul Menard (0 in 16 starts)
Key Storylines
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Three races to make the Chase
The Race to the Chase, the prelude to the Chase, has three races remaining. Things are going to get wild and crazy as NASCAR’s version of musical chairs is at its peak, with more than a dozen drivers still trying to win a race to make the 16-driver Chase. And it doesn’t get much crazier and wild than it will Saturday night at Bristol.
If that’s not enough beating and banging mayhem for you, there’s still Darlington in two weeks and the final Chase qualifier at Richmond in three weeks.
Can Aric Almirola and Kasey Kahne still make the Chase?
Heading into Saturday’s race, Clint Bowyer holds down the final spot on the Chase grid. But Aric Almirola (23 points behind Bowyer) and Kasey Kahne (-26 points) are close behind and hope to overtake Bowyer and boot him out of the Chase, much like he missed the Chase last year after falling short at the final Chase qualifying race at Richmond.
Do Danica Patrick and Tony Stewart have a Chase chance?
With two of their Stewart-Haas Racing teammates (Harvick and Kurt Busch) already locked into the Chase, can Danica Patrick and Tony Stewart still steal a win to make the playoffs? Patrick, of course, is still seeking her first career Sprint Cup win, and Bristol or Richmond could be the place she breaks through.
Stewart, on the other hand, can win at all three remaining tracks. He’s been steadily improving in practice and qualifying in recent weeks, but he hasn’t had the results to match. He just needs one win, and not only would it put him in the Chase, it would be his first Sprint Cup win in more than two years.
Is this finally Jeff Gordon’s breakthrough race?
We keep saying the same thing over and over, week after week. Sooner or later, the law of averages has to come out on Gordon’s side and he winds up winning a race, right? Gordon does well at each of the next three races, but there would certainly be greater fanfare and momentum for his team if he were to do it Saturday at Bristol. After falling short so many times this season, can Saturday night finally be his turn?
Can Ryan Newman do it again?
Ryan Newman hasn’t won a race since the 2013 Brickyard 400 in Indianapolis. Still, he has been one of the most consistent drivers in Sprint Cup ever since. It was that same consistency that not only qualified Newman for last year’s Chase, it also carried him through to the season finale, where he finished a close second to eventual Sprint Cup champion Kevin Harvick.
It almost seems like deja vu for Newman in 2015, as he is basically repeating the same type of consistency and momentum that he displayed last year, both in reaching the Chase and then advancing to the final race. Had Harvick not won at Homestead, and with a break or two along the way, Newman potentially could have won last year’s championship. After coming up short in 2014, could the same path ultimately lead to the title in 2015?
Drivers to Watch
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Clint Bowyer
Bowyer comes into Saturday’s race on the Chase bubble. He’s in a precarious position with three races remaining until the playoffs. While Bristol is one of his favorite tracks—and he does fairly well there—he has to guard against getting too aggressive just because of his position in the standings. He has to protect and maintain where he’s at now, lest he wind up like last season and miss the Chase.
Danica Patrick
I’ve been saying for at least the past year-and-a-half that if and when Patrick wins her first Sprint Cup race, it’s going to come on a short track like Bristol or Richmond. While others think she’ll earn her first win at a superspeedway like Daytona or Talladega, my gut just tells me that if Patrick finds herself with a chance to win at Bristol—especially if it comes down to a fuel-mileage battle—she very well could be in the right place at the right time when the checkered flag falls.
Martin Truex Jr.
After finishing third at Michigan—which ironically was where he finished at in the June race there—Martin Truex Jr. looks like he may have finally shaken off some of the bad luck he’s had to endure for much of the previous two months. Given that there are three short tracks in the Chase (New Hampshire, Phoenix and Martinsville), Truex could help himself with a strong run at Bristol.
Kasey Kahne
The Washington state native raced his way into last year’s Chase with a win at Atlanta on Labor Day weekend. Unfortunately, this year’s Atlanta race was moved to early in the season. Kahne does fairly well at Bristol, not so well at Darlington and extremely well at Richmond. But the last thing he wants to do is wait until Richmond and hope his past track record will help pull him through again. He needs to go for the jugular at Bristol—plain and simple.
Tony Stewart
Much like Gordon, it’s just a matter of time before Stewart reaches Victory Lane again. Sure, he hasn’t won in more than two years, but that’s not to say he can’t win again. And if/when Stewart does win, he has the potential to go on a strong following run. He likes Bristol and does well there, and what's a better place for him to break out of his frustrating season slump?
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Favorites
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Matt Kenseth
Kenseth goes for the season sweep at Bristol, having won this season’s spring race there as well. Bristol is one of Kenseth’s favorite and most successful tracks, and given the high he’s riding right now—two wins in the last three races—he’s likely to come into Saturday night with a sky-high level of momentum and confidence.
One more win, and Kenseth would tie Jimmie Johnson and Kyle Busch for most wins by a driver thus far this season (four each). If he can pull that off, Kenseth has the potential of being one of the top seeds once the points are reset to start the Chase.
Kyle Busch
Kyle Busch has been nothing short of spectacular this season. He missed the first 11 races due to a broken right leg and fractured left foot, but he returned to win four of the next 12 races. He’s motivated to not only enter the Chase as one of the top seeds, but more importantly, he is also bound and determined to win the Chase for the first time in his career.
Busch is outstanding at Bristol, tied with Gordon and older brother Kurt Busch for most wins by a driver (five). He would love to win No. 6, break away from the pack and use the resulting momentum to solidify his place heading into the Chase.
Jeff Gordon
Yes, picking Gordon has become a weekly exercise. But the law of averages has to eventually play out in his favor, especially at Bristol. Sure, he’s come up short at some of his best tracks, including Sonoma and Indianapolis, but we’re not giving up on Gordon to finally turn things around and reach Victory Lane.
What’s more, like Stewart, if Gordon finally earns his first win of 2015, he could easily go on a run of multiple wins, particularly in the Chase. Call me foolish, but I’m not giving up on Gordon to win a race, and I’m also not giving up on him to come from behind to win the Chase.
Kurt Busch
In my mind, Kurt Busch has never really been appreciated for the success he’s had over the years at Bristol. Ask most fans, and I bet few would say he’s won five races at the little bullring. Busch is firmly in the Chase, so he can kind of let things hang out in these three remaining races and throw everything else out the window to focus solely on earning the checkered flag.
Keep your eye on the No. 41 Saturday night. If he doesn’t get caught up in a wreck of someone else’s doing, he likely will be right there at the end, challenging for the win.
Brad Keselowski
Much like his predecessors in the Miller Lite Ford—NASCAR Hall of Famer Rusty Wallace and Kurt Busch—Brad Keselowski has taken to Bristol Motor Speedway like a duck to water. He is arguably one of the most aggressive and determined drivers when it comes to beating, banging and challenging for the lead.
Much like Wallace, the late Dale Earnhardt and Darrell Waltrip (Bristol’s all-time winner with 12 triumphs), Keselowski is an old-school racer—and it doesn’t get much better old school-wise than Bristol. Look for Bad Brad and teammate Joey Logano (unless he gets caught up in a wreck) to be major players Saturday night.
Dark-Horse Pick: Paul Menard
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You want a real dark horse? Well, you’ve got one.
Paul Menard has just one win in his Sprint Cup career, and it was a big one: the 2011 Brickyard 400 in Indianapolis.
He’s also never qualified for the Chase for the Sprint Cup.
But quietly and effectively, Menard has been one of the biggest surprises of the 2015 season. He comes into Bristol ranked 11th, and he is 12th on the Chase grid.
Borrowing a page from teammate Ryan Newman’s last-season playbook, all Menard needs to do is keep doing what he’s been doing all season when it comes to consistency, and he’ll make the Chase.
I won’t be surprised if he wins at Bristol. After all, he is the leading driver when it comes to finishing at Bristol: He’s finished each of the 16 races he’s started there.
And the Winner Is: Kyle Busch
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With a three-way tie for most wins among active drivers standing at five triumphs each for Kurt Busch, younger brother Kyle Busch and four-time champ Jeff Gordon, it’s likely we’ll see all three of those drivers battling it out for the win in Saturday’s race.
But it’s Kyle Busch who may have the most incentive of all to reach Victory Lane.
Right now, he’s tied with Jimmie Johnson for most wins by a driver thus far in 2015 (four wins each). The driver with the most wins in the first 26 races (the regular season) will become the No. 1 seed when the Chase begins.
If there’s one thing the younger Busch brother loves—and gets inspired by—it’s incentive.
And to become the No. 1 seed in the Chase for the first time in his career is all the incentive he needs to take the checkered flag on Saturday night.
Statistical information provided by NASCAR media relations.
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