How Long Will It Take Jim Harbaugh to Bring Michigan Back to Prominence?

When Michigan hired Jim Harbaugh as its new head coach, the question became a matter of "when" the Wolverines would re-enter the national power conversation again, not "if." At best, it was a nod to Harbaugh's track record with Stanford and the San Francisco 49ers. At worst, it was a safe assumption. 

But with Harbaugh's first season as a coach in Ann Arbor on the horizon, the question remains valid: When will Harbaugh bring Michigan back to prominence?

Here's the context: Speaking on SiriusXM's College Sports Today, Harbaugh's predecessor, Brady Hoke, offered his thoughts on the amount of time it takes to rebuild a major program. Specifically, the question related to second-year Texas head coach Charlie Strong. Before going any further, here's the quote, via Mark Snyder of the Detroit Free Press: 

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Five to six years. That's what everyone wants, two or three, especially if you're a fan of the school. I know you may have to change an offensive system as far as going from a pro style to spread or a spread to a pro style. Defensively, are you going to be a 3-4 team or a 4-3 team? All those things are part (of it) as you go out and start to recruit.

Whenever you get one of those jobs, that first recruiting class is going to be about a 50/50 class. Especially when you're hired as the coach.

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Briefly: As it relates to Texas—which, again, was the subject of the question—Hoke isn't wrong. The program Strong inherited from Mack Brown two years ago was in bad shape. The 2012 class, ranked second nationally by 247Sports at the time, fizzled out, according to Burnt Orange Nation's Wescott Eberts.

The Longhorns now regularly lose out on top in-state recruits to programs like Baylor and Texas A&M. In 2014, Texas was shut out of the NFL draft. For as rough as things have been at Michigan, it can at least say it's had players drafted consistently. 

So, sure, it might take Strong five or six years to get things turned around. 

But let's take Hoke's answer and apply it to his former school. After all, Michigan falls into the same blue-blood category as Texas, so some of the same logic applies. Will it take Harbaugh five or six years to get Michigan back to where it wants to be?

If history is any indication, no. It'll be sooner. 

Dan Wolken of USA Today tweeted some interesting nuggets in response to Hoke's comments and the amount of time it takes to win and build a program. In short, new coaches that go on to win national championships do so fairly quickly: 

Among the coaches to win national championships recently are Urban Meyer, Jimbo Fisher and Nick Saban. Should Harbaugh be placed within that echelon of the coaching fraternity, despite the fact that he hasn't won a national championship? Here's betting many people would put Harbaugh at least in the same conversation as the aforementioned coaches. 

Sure, each situation is different when a new coach takes over. There are nuances that need to be considered, like culture, schematic and recruiting changes. Wolken's data, however, shows there's at least a reason fanbases expect quicker turnarounds.

Those results don't always have to end in national championships, either—at least right away. Coaches like Tom Osborne, Bobby Bowden and even Mack Brown brought their programs to national prominence for years before winning it all. But those programs were relevant all the same: 

The problem with Hoke's time in Michigan is that he did things in reverse. Instead of building, the Wolverines crumbled. In Hoke's first season, 2011, Michigan went 11-2 and won the Sugar Bowl. However, the win totals declined each year afterward, eventually resulting in a five-win season in 2014. 

With all due respect to Hoke, that's not a sign of needing five or six years to turn things around. That's a sign of needing an additional five or six years on top of the four he received.

Harbaugh's track record would lead you to believe he's capable of doing the opposite. In his fourth year with Stanford, Harbaugh had the Cardinal playing for (and winning) the Orange Bowl. In his second year with San Francisco, Harbaugh had the 49ers playing in the Super Bowl. 

Things might be rough in year one at Michigan; a non-conference schedule of Utah, Oregon State and BYU is no picnic, and the Wolverines play in the tougher Big Ten East division. The best player Michigan has right now is likely Jabrill Peppers, a player forced to redshirt a season ago due to injury. 

However, Harbaugh and his staff are already assembling a top-10 recruiting class for 2016, per 247Sports. Four of the top seven prospects verbally committed in that class are offensive linemen, a desperate area of need for Michigan over the past few years. Another is 4-star quarterback Brandon Peters. 

If that's any indication of the kind of recruiting power Harbaugh will have in Ann Arbor, by year four, the Wolverines should be cooking. Will Michigan win a Big Ten or national championship by then? Getting through Ohio State at the rate the Buckeyes are winning is going to be tough. But as Brett Forrest of ESPN The Magazine wrote earlier this month, the Harbaugh-Urban Meyer rivalry is shaping up to be one for the ages. 

Bold predictions are fun, but the reality is we don't know if Harbaugh will bring home a national championship in four years. His history and recruiting acumen indicate he'll at least put Michigan in a position to win, though. 

In that sense, Harbaugh is on his way to proving his predecessor wrong.  

Ben Kercheval is a lead writer for college football. All quotes cited unless obtained firsthand.