Daily Fantasy Football 2015: Predicting Top 10 DraftKings TE Projections

Injuries, suspensions and new locations are the biggest factors for predicting the top 10 DraftKings tight end projections. Greg Olsen ($5,300), Jimmy Graham ($5,600) and Rob Gronkowski (n/a) headline a top-heavy list of reliable daily fantasy contributors at tight end in 2015.

Tight end as a whole can be a frustratingly inconsistent position to predict since most players’ values depend strongly on scoring touchdowns. This reality is reflected in DraftKings’ player prices in which the top Week 1 tight end—Graham—sits thousands of dollars below the top prospects at the other big four positions: quarterback Aaron Rodgers ($8,600), running back Jamaal Charles ($7,900) and wide receiver Julio Jones ($9,300).

The following list outlines what to expect from the top 10 daily fantasy tight ends over the course of the 2015 season.

Honorable Mention

Denis Poroy/Associated Press

Gates will spend the first four games of 2015 on the sidelines after violating the league's performance enhancing drug policy.

Tyler Eifert, Cincinnati Bengals

Eifert ($3,500) returns from a Week 1 elbow injury which cost him the rest of the 2014 season. The third-year pro no longer has to compete with Jermaine Gresham ($2,800)—now with the Arizona Cardinals—for tight end targets, which should boost his outlook in a rebound campaign.

Julius Thomas, Jacksonville Jaguars

Ryan O’Halloran of the Florida Times Union reported Thomas ($4,500) is expected to be recovered from preseason thumb surgery and ready for Week 1. Still, fantasy owners should temper expectations given Thomas’ extensive injury history and Jacksonville’s lowly offense.

Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers

Gates ($4,200) would be a top-10 tight end this season if not for a four-game PED suspension. Ladarius Green ($3,500) will start in his place, possibly clouding the tight end situation in San Diego once Gates returns.

10. Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles

Chris Szagola/Associated Press

Ertz's sports hernia surgery further hampers his bid to top Brent Celek for snaps as Philadelphia's TE1

Adding any Philadelphia Eagle to your fantasy flavor palate can be an acquired taste, especially with head coach Chip Kelly stirring the pot. Ertz ($3,600) is a particularly complicated subject considering Kelly’s love affair with Brent Celek ($2,500), according to Sheil Kapadia of Philadelphia Magazine.

Jeff McLane of the Inquirer tweeted Ertz underwent surgery Friday to repair a “partial groin tear, not [a] sports hernia,” according to the Eagles. David J. Chao, MD of National Football Post replied on Twitter, “Core muscle/athletic pubalgia/sports hernia. All involve [a] groin injury. All [are in a] similar family.”

Injuries in this category take an average of three to six weeks to fully recover, according to the Andrews Sports Medicine and Orthopedic Center. But Kelly said Ertz’s surgeon William Meyers of Penn Medicine predicted a shorter timeline, according to McLane.

"Dr. Meyers said it's going to be a couple of weeks and thinks he'll be fine by the opener. So I said, 'If we got to shut him down now, I'd rather shut him down now than sometime in the middle of the season.'"

Pro Football Focus graded Celek ahead of Ertz in pass- and run-blocking in 2014. Ertz focused his training on blocking this offseason as a result, according to McLane.

The sports hernia looms as a potential setback heading into the season, possibly preventing Ertz from achieving TE1 fantasy status in 2015.

Fantasy Projection for 2015: 5.5 points per game, including four touchdowns.

9. Jordan Cameron, Miami Dolphins

Lynne Sladky/Associated Press

Cameron's receiving ability is unquestioned, but injury and blocking concerns will limit opportunities in Miami.

Miami’s first choice at tight end was re-signing Charles Clay ($3,700), but when Clay signed with the Buffalo Bills, stealing Cameron ($3,800) from the Cleveland Browns presented the next-best option. The Dolphins signed Cameron to a two-year, $15 million deal, but $9.5 million of it is non-guaranteed in 2016, according to Over the Cap.  

Miami general manager Dennis Hickey’s trepidation stems from Cameron’s concussion history: three documented cases over the past two seasons, contributing to nine missed starts. Nate Ulrich of the Akron Beacon Journal reported Cameron said he didn’t think another concussion was “a concern,” adding “I wouldn’t play if it was.”

But the Dolphins are concerned, and fantasy owners should be, too. Besides injury worries, offensive coordinator Bill Lazor’s offense isn’t heavily tight end-dependent. Clay finished 2014 tied for 14th in targets with 81, according to Pro Football Focus.

PFF revealed playing time is also an issue considering Cameron graded 60th out of 67 in run-blocking. Dion Sims ($2,500) finished 31st on an offense head coach Joe Philbin said wants to incorporate the run more in 2015—at least regarding Lamar Miller ($5,500), according to James Walker of ESPN.com.

His concussions, blocking deficiencies and the presence of other viable receiving weapons in Greg Jennings ($4,300), Kenny Stills ($4,700) and Jarvis Landry ($5,600) render Cameron a low-end TE1 prospect at best.

Fantasy Projection for 2015: 5.7 points per game, including three touchdowns.  

8. Dwayne Allen, Indianapolis Colts

Darron Cummings/Associated Press

A healthy Allen should see plenty of scoring opportunities in Indianapolis' tight end-friendly offense.

Season-ending injuries in 2013 stunted Allen’s ($3,400) development as Indianapolis’ top tight end in 2014. George Bremer of the Herald Bulletin tweeted, “Allen said he played at about 70 percent last year.”

The three-year veteran is preparing to rebound in 2015, dropping 13 pounds, according to the Indianapolis Star’s Gregg Doyel on Twitter. If healthy, Allen figures to once again eclipse Coby Fleener ($3,400) for targets and playing time given his superior overall game.

Allen rated ninth overall among tight ends, according to Pro Football Focus—Fleener rated 36th. Although Fleener received better passing marks, Allen’s overall blocking and receiving ability means offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton will give him more snaps.  

Allen led Fleener in NumberFire’s net expected points per target metric, .90 to .76. Allen also finished 2014 more efficient in the red zone, catching seven of eight targets for five touchdowns to Fleener’s seven of 12 for five, according to CBS Sports.com.

Scott Barrett of NumberFire broke down Andrew Luck’s ($8,300) target splits over his first three seasons. He threw to tight ends 19 percent of attempts in 2012-13, increasing to 25 percent last season. Indianapolis’ TE1 saw more than half of those targets in each of those seasons.

Given Allen’s complete skill set, Luck’s propensity to target the tight end and Hamilton’s stacked offense, it’s not a stretch to expect Allen to finish 2015 among the top 10 tight ends in fantasy scoring.

Fantasy Projection for 2015: 5.8 points per game, including seven touchdowns.  

7. Delanie Walker, Tennessee Titans

Mark Humphrey/Associated Press

Walker is poised to put up another round of TE1 numbers under the radar in Tennessee.

Walker ($3,400) quietly threw together an eighth-ranked season in fantasy scoring among tight ends in 2014, according to CBS Sports.com. He averaged 7.5 fantasy points per game through 15 games—14 starts.

Pro Football Focus rated Walker sixth among tight ends who saw at least 60 percent of their team’s snaps in 2014. He finished second only to Coby Fleener's ($3,400) 15.2 yards per catch within the same group, averaging 14.1.

Owners are likely turned off by his atypical size for a tight end—6’0”, 248 pounds—and Tennessee’s dysfunctional offense—the league’s third-worst in 2014.

But if Walker produced so well as the top target—106 total—for Jake Locker (retired), Charlie Whitehurst ($5,000) and Zach Mettenberger ($5,000), imagine what he could do with Marcus Mariota ($6,000).

Walker led all Titans in receptions (63) and yards from scrimmage (890) last season and is a favorite to repeat with as a safety valve for his rookie quarterback.

Fantasy Projection for 2015: 6.1 fantasy points per game, including five touchdowns.

6. Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys

Mark J. Terrill/Associated Press

Witten is still a trustworthy TE1 entering his 13th season.

Witten’s ($4,000) 10th-place finish in fantasy scoring among tight ends marked his lowest since 2006, according to Pro Football Reference. The dip coincided with an offensive philosophy shift in Dallas, focusing more on the run than in years past.

Witten’s total targets (90) also dropped below triple digits for the first time in eight seasons.

The 33-year-old’s production should be expected to sag as his 12-year career glides into the downswing, but he hasn’t missed a game since his rookie season. Pro Football Focus reported Witten participated in all but 11 of Dallas’ offensive snaps in 2014, finishing ranked second among tight ends.

The All Pro ranked fourth in NumberFire’s net expected points rating, directly ahead of Jimmy Graham ($5,600), Martellus Bennett ($4,300) and Travis Kelce ($4,800).

If head coach Jason Garrett and offensive coordinator Scott Linehan decide to rely more on the passing attack after the departure of DeMarco Murray ($6,700), look for Witten to benefit with a boost in production over 2014.

Fantasy Projection for 2015: 7.6 fantasy points per game, including seven touchdowns.

5. Martellus Bennett, Chicago Bears

Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports

Bennett's personal incentive for a better contract could translate to fantasy success in 2015.

Bennett ($4,300) logged his most effective season as a pro, leading all tight ends in targets (125) and receptions (90), according to Pro Football Focus. The seven-year veteran wanted to revisit his contract as a result, just two years through the four-year, $20.4 million deal, according to Over the Cap.

First-year general manager Ryan Pace did not budge, to the point ESPN’s Adam Schefter tweeted Bennett was on the trade block leading up to the draft. Bennett conceded and reported to minicamp and training camp on time, an important factor considering he’s to learn a new offensive scheme under Adam Gase.

With the contract dispute merely settled on the back burner, Bennett brings all the incentive daily fantasy players could hope for since his personal stat line will likely translate to personal finances in 2016.

Julius Thomas ($4,500) flourished under Gase and head coach John Fox, scoring 12 touchdowns in each of their last two seasons together with the Denver Broncos.

The problem is Jay Cutler ($6,800) is obviously no Peyton Manning ($8,200). Manning hit Thomas 13 out of 15 attempts for nine touchdowns in the red zone last season, per CBS Sports.com. Cutler hit Bennett on just 11 of 21 attempts for five red-zone scores.

Bennett’s prospects in 2015 will likely lie somewhere between his and Thomas’ from 2014.

Fantasy Projection for 2015: 7.8 points per game, including six touchdowns.

4. Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs

Ross D. Franklin/Associated Press

Kelce is a cog in the Chiefs' low-volume offense.

Kelce ($4,800) emerged as the most efficient tight end in fantasy last season with a 95.52 percent success rate, according to NumberFire. Alex Smith ($6,200) aided Kelce’s consistency with a conservative passing approach and dearth of viable targets out of a mediocre receiving corps.

Mike Clay of Pro Football Focus reported Smith passed on target to Kelce on 89 percent of 80 targets. Smith’s average target depth reached just 6.3 yards, forcing Kelce to gain 58 percent of his 862 receiving yards after the catch.

Smith is also comfortable throwing to the tight end, making Vernon Davis ($3,100) the top receiver twice during his tenure with the San Francisco 49ers, per Pro Football Reference.

PFF graded Kelce fourth overall among tight ends last season, a solid foundation for a young receiver Smith said is hungry for targets, according to ESPN.com’s Adam Teicher.

"

You’re doing things at the line of scrimmage, changing plays with him, (depending on) how they’re playing him leverage-wise. He wants a different route so he can get the football. Yesterday in practice, I can hear him make calls at the line of scrimmage because he wants the football.

Things like that are encouraging. Obviously, he’s a tremendous player, but it’s so great to kind of see that confidence there on the field, him calling for when he wants the football. As a quarterback, that’s encouraging. You want a bunch of guys out there that are feeling good about their matchup and want the football.

"

Kelce is poised to be one of the most consistent tight ends in 2015 given the relative lack of weapons on Kansas City’s offense.

Fantasy Projection for 2015: 7.9 points per game, including six touchdowns.

3. Greg Olsen, Carolina Panthers

Bill Wippert/Associated Press

Olsen will be the most reliable tight end among the elite in daily fantasy.

Olsen ($5,300) notched a career milestone in 2014 topping 1,000 yards receiving (1,008) for the first time in his eight-year career. He finished second only to Rob Gronkowski (n/a) in receiving yards among tight ends (1,124).

His fourth-place finish in standard fantasy scoring among tight ends—per CBS Sports.com—also marked a career best, according to Pro Football Reference. Carolina rewarded Olsen with a three-year, $22.5 million extension in March as a result, locking the Pro Bowler up through 2018.

Both Pro Football Focus and NumberFire graded Olsen third among tight ends in 2014.

He finished second on the Panthers with 123 targets last season, and figures to be a focal of Cam Newton’s ($7,600) passing game again in 2015. Olsen’s only competition for downfield targets in Carolina are rookie Devin Funchess ($3,800) and second-year pro Kelvin Benjamin ($7,300).

Olsen is the most reliable option among elite fantasy tight ends, not missing a game since his rookie year in 2007.

Fantasy Projection for 2015: 8.0 points per game, including seven touchdowns.

2. Jimmy Graham, Seattle Seahawks

John Froschauer/Associated Press

Graham will carry less fantasy significance in Seattle's run-heavy scheme.

The biggest change for Graham ($5,600) moving from the New Orleans Saints to the Seahawks will be in-line blocking. Tim Booth of the Associated Press reported Graham anticipates run-blocking more often in Seattle.

"It's very important for me to be a part of that here because that's about 75 percent of the offense here and if you have a back like [Marshawn Lynch, $7,300], you want to be in there on those explosive runs and you want to be part of that."

Pro Football Focus rated Graham tied for 15th among tight ends as a run-blocker in 2014.

Although Graham still looks to be the best tight end not named Rob Gronkowski (n/a), his fantasy numbers are expected to be limited in 2015. New Orleans’ pass-to-run ratio was 1.78 over the last three seasons, compared to Seattle’s 0.89, according to JJ Zachariason of NumberFire.

If Graham tops 100-plus targets for a fifth straight season, he’ll be the first to do so in a Seahawks uniform with Russell Wilson ($7,800) under center.

Still, Graham’s red-zone potential is difficult to ignore even in a run-first scheme, which means there should be plenty of touchdowns coming to daily fantasy owners in 2015, especially in favorable matchups.

Fantasy Projection for 2015: 9.1 points per game, including eight touchdowns.

1. Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots

Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports

Note: Gronkowski and the rest of the New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers are not available for DraftKings’ Week 1 fantasy contests.

When Gronkowski plays a full season, there isn’t a better tight end in the league. It isn’t even close.

The fifth-year veteran topped all tight ends in fantasy scoring, averaging 11.5 points per game. His 1,124 receiving yards ranked 15th overall, and his 12 touchdowns tied for fourth, according to ESPN.com.

Gronkowski’s Pro Football Focus grade of 22.9 ranked behind only Le’Veon Bell (23.8) and Antonio Brown (23.4) at the non-QB skill positions. With Jimmy Graham traded to an inferior Seattle Seahawks offense this offseason, there isn’t another contender in the conversation for best fantasy tight end in 2015.

The biggest factor for Gronkowski’s fantasy prospects in 2015 is how many games Jimmy Garoppolo will quarterback in relief of Tom Brady, who is currently suspended for the first four games of the season. The NFL Players Association and the league are debating the length of Brady’s suspension in court, but ESPN’s Adam Schefter tweeted the two sides “got nowhere” on Tuesday.

Consider waiting until Brady returns before adding Gronkowski to your daily fantasy lineup.

Fantasy Projection for 2015: 10.4 points per game, including 10 touchdowns.

DraftKings is giving away over $10 million in Week 1 of the NFL season. Use this knowledge to help you win some of that cash. The biggest first-place prize ever at $2 million will be awarded. Play now for FREE at DraftKings.com.