Breaking Down Green Bay Packers' Likely Opening Game Starting Lineup
The Green Bay Packers have opened their preseason schedule for the 2015 season, which means that making predictions for the team's starting lineup come Week 1 is finally based on fact rather than pure conjecture.
Snap counts through training camp have been a good indication of which players are in the lead for the contested starting positions, which are mainly tight end, left defensive end, middle linebacker and the punt and kick return duties.
The following starting lineup predictions are also reflective of the team's most recent unofficial depth chart, though it can and most likely will change prior to Week 1.
All projections that follow are based on the Packers running their 11 personnel (three receivers, one tight end and one running back) on offense and their base 3-4 scheme on defense.
Quarterback
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Starter: Aaron Rodgers
If a sure thing can exist in football, this is it. Rodgers enters his 11th season in the NFL and his eighth as the starter for Green Bay.
In those eight seasons as a starter, Rodgers has missed only nine games, the majority in 2013 when he broke his collarbone and missed seven games. Incredibly, he didn't miss a single game in 2014 despite dealing with a torn calf for the latter part of the season and into the playoffs.
Though injuries have been more of a problem for Rodgers in the last two seasons, he said this offseason that he's good to go heading into 2015.
"I have no restrictions with my body," Rodgers told Fox Sports Wisconsin's Paul Imig in May. "I'm feeling good. I'm at a decent weight where I want to be."
In addition to his consistency in staying on the field, Rodgers has stayed remarkably consistent in the level of his play. In fact, 2014 was his best season to date in terms of accuracy; his interception rate of just 1.0 percent was the lowest of his career. His passer rating of 112.2 was his highest mark since 2011.
This season, Rodgers lines up behind the same high-performing starting five on the offensive line he had in 2014 and got a new weapon in rookie Ty Montgomery. He has all the tools he needs to lead this team well into January.
Running Back
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Starter: Eddie Lacy
Judging by his performance in the Packers' first preseason game of the year against the New England Patriots on August 13, Eddie Lacy could start the season tomorrow if he needed to.
Lacy got five carries early in the Packers offensive action before the team rotated in a cast of halfbacks hoping to make the roster behind Lacy and James Starks, who should continue to spell Lacy as the Packers' No. 2 back in 2015.
In the game, Lacy ran for 36 yards, averaging 7.2 yards per carry, and had a long run of 15 yards. He displayed his usual vision in getting up field and elusiveness in avoiding tackles.
In fact, Lacy had the second-best Pro Football Focus "elusive rating" of any halfback in the league last season with 71.6. The stat measures "a runner's success beyond the point of being helped by his blockers," per the site.
The Packers will likely continue to monitor Lacy's carries in 2015 to ensure he doesn't get worn down too early in the season, but expect the running back to have another elite year.
Wide Receivers
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Starters: Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Davante Adams
In this case, the "starting" wide receivers are the No. 1-No. 3 players who should line up on the field in Green Bay's standard 11 personnel package.
After emerging as a solid weapon for Rodgers in 2014, when he had 38 receptions for 446 yards and three touchdowns in the regular season and another 124 yards and touchdown in the postseason, Adams has earned the No. 3 spot alongside Nelson and Cobb.
This offseason, Rodgers and Adams have been working on their chemistry. In the Packers' first preseason game against the Patriots, Rodgers attempted seven passes on his opening drive and targeted Adams on four of them, per Adam Levitan of Rotoworld. With Adams coming into his own, Rodgers should have plenty of options to find a target when he progresses through his reads in 2015.
Nelson is recovered following an offseason hip surgery and is good to go heading into the season. "It looks like he hasn’t missed a beat,” head coach Mike McCarthy said after Nelson returned to practice, per Jason Wilde of ESPN Wisconsin.
Cobb has been making headlines in camp, continuing to prove how prudent it was for general manager Ted Thompson to re-sign him in March. On August 11, Cobb had a highlight-reel-worthy, one-handed juggling catch for a touchdown, per Ryan Wood of the Green Bay Press-Gazette.
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Tight End
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Starter: Richard Rodgers
Veteran Andrew Quarless got the first-team reps for the Packers when they faced the Patriots in their first preseason action of the summer, but it would be surprising to see anyone but Richard Rodgers take the field first with the offense come Week 1.
In 2014, Quarless and Rodgers shared the starting role. Quarless had 11 starts in 2014, and Rodgers had five.
However, Quarless' ceiling has been established over his career, while second-year player Rodgers' potential is unrealized.
Quarless may have gotten the start against the Pats, but he struggled. He had two catches on five targets for 21 yards. Rodgers, on the other hand, showed off his fantastic hands when he grabbed an 18-yard pass. He also appeared to have improved in blocking, as Brian Carriveau of 247 Sports observed.
Finally, Quarless could still be facing a suspension by the league for allegedly firing a gun in public in early July. That alone might solve the issue of which Packers tight end gets the start in Week 1.
Offensive Line
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Starters: David Bakhtiari (LT), Josh Sitton (LG), Corey Linsley (C), T.J. Lang (RG), Bryan Bulaga (RT)
The Packers return all of their starting five offensive linemen from the 2014 season, ensuring continued success for both Rodgers in the passing game and Lacy on the ground.
Moreover, 2015 will be the first time Rodgers has the same center from the previous season since 2011, the last year he played with Scott Wells. Second-year player Linsley wasn't supposed to play center in 2014, but he stepped in for an injured JC Tretter and performed so well that he's locked the job down.
Linsley graded out as the fifth-best center in the league last season, per Pro Football Focus.
Sitton and Lang finished among the top five guards in the league last season, per Pro Football Focus, allowing just three sacks between them. Sitton took it slow to start training camp with a toe injury, as ESPN.com's Rob Demovksy reported, but he participated in the preseason action against the Patriots.
Left tackle Bakhtiari got off to a shaky start against the Patriots, allowing two sacks and a hit, according to Pro Football Focus. However, his play was solid in 2014 and should be again this season.
Per Pro Football Focus' pass-blocking efficiency stat, the line was the second-best in the league in 2014 in pass protection, allowing just 112 total pressures and 18 sacks.
Defensive Line
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Starters: Josh Boyd (Week 1)/Letroy Guion (LDE), B.J. Raji (NT), Mike Daniels (RDE)
By necessity, defensive lineman Josh Boyd will need to start on the left side opposite Mike Daniels in the Packers' Week 1 matchup against the Chicago Bears, as both Guion and Datone Jones will be suspended.
Jones will return in Week 2, while Guion's suspension lasts three weeks. The Packers could slot Jones into the left end spot, but it's safe to say given his high level of play in 2014 that once he returns, Guion will receive the starting snaps.
Raji entered camp determined to prove himself with another chance of starting at the nose tackle spot. He demonstrated his commitment to the team last season by attending practice and remaining in Green Bay even though he was on injured reserve.
He's also taken care this offseason to return to prime football shape; Raji told Bob McGinn of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel at the start of training camp that he's at his lowest weight since college.
Daniels is establishing himself as one of the best interior pass-rushers in the league. He ranked No. 8 among 3-4 defensive ends in 2014, per Pro Football Focus, with six sacks, 11 hits and 24 hurries.
Jones played 323 snaps last season, compared to 263 in 2013. He also had three starts. However, he was still used primarily in pass-rushing situations and will need to show he can be more versatile to keep getting snaps once Guion returns.
Linebackers
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Starters: Clay Matthews (LOLB), Sam Barrington (LILB), Matthews/Nate Palmer (MLB) Julius Peppers (ROLB)
Going by the Packers' most recent unofficial depth chart, Matthews will officially be listed as a starting outside linebacker even though he'll most likely play inside on first and second downs.
The most interesting position in the group, of course, is the middle linebacker spot, where Palmer has stood out during training camp and earned the first (unofficial) nod at the position.
Some might have seen the name on the first offseason depth chart in that spot being either second-year player Carl Bradford or rookie Jake Ryan.
However, Palmer has outperformed all other inside linebackers through training camp; he has been wearing a club cast on one hand and even managed to pick off a Matt Blanchard pass August 10, as Wes Hodkiewicz of the Green Bay Press-Gazette reported.
When Matthews is playing inside, Mike Neal and Nick Perry will compete for snaps opposite Peppers. Perry is effectively now in a "prove-it" year after the Packers declined to pick up his fifth-year option, and Neal will be a free agent in 2016.
Secondary
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Starters: Casey Hayward (LCB), Sam Shields (RCB), Morgan Burnett (SS), Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (FS)
Hayward got the start outside for the Packers in their preseason game against the Patriots. Though he only played 12 snaps before the other cornerbacks rotated in, per Pro Football Focus, it's safe to say he has locked down the starting job for 2015.
Hayward played 225 of his 470 possible snaps (or 48 percent) in the slot in 2014, per Pro Football Focus, but he had three interceptions. He can bring that playmaking ability to the perimeter, where he'll have many more chances to be disruptive.
Shields allowed opposing receivers a catch rate of just 51.9 percent last season, one of the lowest in the league among all cornerbacks, per Pro Football Focus. But his passes defensed (nine) and interceptions (two) were down from 2014, something he can improve upon in 2015.
For the safeties, Burnett and Clinton-Dix each had one interception, while Hyde had two. Burnett's performance was trending up: He had 130 combined tackles, a career high, 1.5 sacks and four passes defended. Pro Football Focus graded him the No. 16 safety in the league.
Clinton-Dix had a solid rookie season, but definitely improved as he went. In the conference championship against the Seattle Seahawks, Clinton-Dix had two interceptions of Russell Wilson. He also had three passes defended in that game, half of his regular-season total.
However, Clinton-Dix had a missed tackle in the preseason game that allowed New England running back Jonas Gray to take a 55-yard run to the house. Presumably, the second-year player just needs time to get back in the swing of things.
Special Teams
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Starters: Mason Crosby (K), Tim Masthay (P), Brett Goode (LS), Micah Hyde (PR), Ty Montgomery (KR)
Green Bay's special teams unit appears to be off to a better start to the 2015 season after being ranked last in the league in the Dallas Morning News' special teams rankings.
Crosby had one of his best seasons in recent years in 2014, making 81.8 percent of his field goals. That's lower than his 89.2 percentage in 2013, but it's his third-highest percentage in his eight-season career.
Masthay had the worst season of his career in 2014, but he appears to have done enough in camp to keep his job. On August 10, the Packers released punter Cody Mandell, whom the Packers signed to compete with Masthay in camp.
Crosby only had four missed field goals up to the point of Mandell's release, and all four came with Mandell holding, per Michael Cohen of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
In the Packers' most recent unofficial depth chart, Hyde earns the nod on punt returns, while rookie Montgomery is listed as the team's kick returner.
Montgomery led Stanford in 2013 with 12 punt returns for 238 yards (averaging 19.8 yards per return) and two touchdowns. It was his first year returning punts. On kick returns, he had 17 for 429 yards, a 25.2 yards-per-return average.
Hyde helped the Packers improve on punt returns in 2014, with 14 returns for 221 yards, averaging 15.8 yards per return, and two touchdowns.
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