Breaking Down New England Patriots' Likely Opening-Game Starting Lineup
The New England Patriots' Week 1 starting lineup's biggest element is also the biggest mystery. It's been more than 14 years since the Patriots have had to wonder who will be lining up at quarterback—22, if you go back to the Drew Bledsoe era.
The Patriots are also dealing with questions at several other spots in the starting lineup. The offensive line, defensive line, secondary and running back positions have all seen some degree of turnover.
With two weeks of training camp in the books and with the Patriots' first preseason game in the rearview mirror, we're finally starting to get some more clarity as to how those position battles will end. Make no mistake, there's still plenty of time for things to change, with more than three weeks and three preseason games remaining until rosters must be cut down to 53 players.
At this point, though, it would be a surprise for anyone else to finish with these Week 1 starting spots.
Quarterback
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Tom Brady or Jimmy Garoppolo
For now, the Patriots have no choice but to prepare as if they'll be without Tom Brady for the first four games of the season. The quarterback's suspension was upheld by the NFL upheld the quarterback's suspension, and although he is currently fighting in court to have his ban uplifted, the Patriots have to prepare for the worst.
We saw Jimmy Garoppolo in extended action for the first time since the Week 17 season finale against the Buffalo Bills last year, in which Garoppolo went 10-of-17 for 90 yards. He had a similarly nondescript performance in the preseason opener against the Green Bay Packers, in which he went 20-of-30 for 159 yards with an interception.
Of course, he might have put up much-better numbers if he wasn't being brutalized in a seven-sack night behind a backup offensive line and if he were throwing to top-notch NFL pass-catchers as he would be in regular-season action. That being said, it's important to take Garoppolo's performance with a huge grain of salt.
Running Back
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Jonas Gray
LeGarrette Blount is suspended for Week 1, which means the Patriots will be without their most likely starting running back on opening day. That leaves the door open for several backup running backs to lay claim to the first carry of the regular season.
Right now, Jonas Gray and James White are the two healthiest running backs on the roster. That was evident on Thursday night against the Packers, when the two earned 15 of the 16 carries doled out to Patriots running backs.
White's most likely role on the team is as a third-down scatback; the second-year back led the Patriots with 52 receiving yards on four receptions Thursday night. Gray, on the other hand, is much-better suited to a role as a first- and second-down back. He may have shown some breakaway speed on his 55-yard touchdown run, but he is a between-the-tackles hammer who is best suited for a role as a traditional back.
Wide Receiver
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Brandon LaFell, Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola
We don't need to see any preseason action from Brandon LaFell, Julian Edelman or Danny Amendola to know that those are the top three wide receivers on the Patriots' depth chart.
LaFell and Edelman are nursing injuries, and it would be wise for the Patriots to keep both men out of the lineup until they are fully healthy. This trifecta of wide receivers was good enough to get the job done last year, and the chemistry on offense could be even better with another year of experience in the system.
As slot receivers with flexibility to line up outside, Edelman and Amendola are a perfect complement to LaFell, who is primarily a boundary receiver. This is about as ideal a starting trio of wide receivers as the Patriots have had with Tom Brady at quarterback, sans the 2007 season.
The three receivers caught a combined 193 passes for 2,125 yards and 12 touchdowns. That being said, LaFell didn't truly hit his stride until Week 4 against the Kansas City Chiefs, so who knows how much better he could be if he's able to play at 100 percent in Week 1.
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Tight End
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The Patriots offense is night and day with Rob Gronkowski in the lineup as opposed to without him, and for the first time in a long time, the Patriots have had Gronkowski at 100 percent for a full offseason without any concern over rehabbing an injury or a surgery.
Gronkowski wasn't back to 100 percent until Week 5 against the Cincinnati Bengals. In 11 games from that point, he hauled in 69 passes for 977 yards and nine touchdowns. Extrapolate that production over a 16-game span and you're left with 100 receptions for 1,421 yards and 13 touchdowns.
The Patriots have a good deal of carryover from 2014 to 2015 in their offensive personnel, which is more than they've been able to say in recent years. Gronkowski's return, and his return to 100 percent, is perhaps the biggest key to the offense's continued success.
Offensive Line
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LT: Nate Solder
LG: Shaq Mason
C: Bryan Stork
RG: Tre' Jackson
RT: Sebastian Vollmer
Fear not, Patriots fans. The offensive line that allowed Patriots quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo to be sacked seven times against the Green Bay Packers will not be the same offensive line that starts Week 1 against the Pittsburgh Steelers. In fact, Thursday night's offensive line featured only two of the projected five starting linemen.
There's the possibility that veteran Ryan Wendell could compete for a starting spot at guard if and when he returns to full health and comes off the physically unable to perform list. That being said, he is quickly losing ground to rookies Tre' Jackson and Shaq Mason, who have taken a majority of the practice reps and who both played a big role in the Patriots' preseason opener.
Nate Solder, Bryan Stork and Sebastian Vollmer are the three best linemen on the Patriots' roster, though, so this unit is far inferior with them out of the lineup. Once they get all three of those players back, though, the Patriots offensive line should be back in form—as long as the rookies make a quick transition to the NFL level.
Defensive Line
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DE: Chandler Jones, Rob Ninkovich
DT: Malcom Brown, Sealver Siliga
These positions are hard to project for the Patriots—not because it's unclear who will be the top players on the depth chart, but because the Patriots flow seamlessly from a 3-4 to a 4-3 front as it suits their needs in a given week.
That being said, this is what the Patriots' front four would look like in a traditional 4-3 front. Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich have been the top defensive ends for three straight years, and that isn't going to change in 2015. They may line up at outside linebacker on occasion, but they will both be on the field as much as possible.
Malcom Brown and Sealver Siliga are the two best young run-stuffing defensive tackles and will likely find themselves on the field for a majority of the first-team snaps in the regular-season opener. If the Patriots go to a 3-4 front, expect to see Dominique Easley or Alan Branch sub in as the third defensive lineman when Jones and Ninkovich kick outside to linebacker.
Linebacker
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OLB: Jerod Mayo, Jamie Collins
MLB: Dont'a Hightower
Much like on the defensive line, the linebacker spot is hard to project because of the variety of ways in which the Patriots can deploy their personnel groupings. It may be unclear whether the Patriots will run predominantly a 3-4 or a 4-3 defense in 2015, but one thing that's perfectly clear is that you can expect Dont'a Hightower, Jerod Mayo and Jamie Collins to spend a majority of the time on the field regardless of scheme.
All three linebackers are flexible between the 3-4 and the 4-3. Collins and Mayo would be an inside linebacker in a 3-4 or an outside linebacker in a 4-3, but Mayo could also play middle linebacker in a 4-3; Hightower can play any linebacker spot in any scheme. Any of the three can also contribute in nickel packages, either as a pass-rusher or in coverage.
The Patriots have three versatile, talented and experienced NFL linebackers. That's about as good as it gets when it comes to finding perfect fits for Bill Belichick's defense.
Secondary
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CB: Malcolm Butler, Logan Ryan
S: Devin McCourty, Patrick Chung
With all the turnover in the Patriots secondary, these starting spots were some of the most scrutinized on the roster. We constantly wondered who would start where, but the answer was always relatively obvious.
Malcolm Butler has done nothing but make plays all throughout training camp, and he showed up big in the Patriots' preseason opener in allowing just one completion for 10 yards on three throws into his coverage against Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers.
Logan Ryan was the top cornerback opposite him in most practices, switching between the boundary and the slot, although Robert McClain earned the start in the preseason.
Expect those two to spend a nearly even amount of time on the field.
Devin McCourty's spot at free safety has never been in doubt, especially not after the veteran signed a five-year, $47.5 million contract this offseason. At strong safety, however, there's an underrated battle taking place between Patrick Chung and Duron Harmon. Chung is the better in-the-box safety to help stuff the run and cover in short spaces; Harmon is the better deep safety to help close downfield passing windows.
The Patriots would be smart to employ a combination of both men, but seeing as we're projecting the starting lineup, we'll set Chung in as the starter due to his ability against the run.
Unless otherwise noted, all observations obtained firsthand.
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