College Football Picks: Week Three

Each Monday morning, we will preview every college football DI FBS game of the upcoming week. The inputs to the 10,000 simulations of these games are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings and then makes modifications for injuries and depth at each position.


Game of the Week: No. 25 Texas Tech: 21 at No. 2 Texas: 39

It may not erase what happened last season when Texas Tech needed a last-minute, amazing touchdown grab by Michael Crabtree to defeat the Longhorns 39-33 in Lubbock, but Texas should get some revenge in Austin this weekend.

Now a senior, Texas quarterback Colt McCoy is not going to let Mike Leach and the Red Raiders destroy his bid for a national championship again this year. In their first two games, McCoy has led Texas to wins over non-BCS teams (automatic qualifiers) by a combined margin of 100-30.

Despite throwing an interception in each game, and while not running as much as in the past, McCoy looks to be on his way to another monstrous year. He has already hooked up with roommate Jordan Shipley on 15 passes for 241 yards and one 72-yard touchdown.

Expect more of the same against Texas Tech. The Red Raiders' defense is not as bad as many might assume, but Texas should be able to score on anyone (including the 28 points we give the Longhorns in the BCS National Championship against Florida).

For Texas Tech, gone are Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree. They have been replaced by Taylor Potts and Lyle Leong.

Potts is a 6'5", 218-pound quarterback, who was a Scout.com four-star recruit coming out of Abilene High School in 2007. He is one of the top recruits of Mike Leach's tenure in Lubbock.

Leong is the 6'1", 165-pound "Z receiver" (Crabtree's old position), who is also Potts' former high school teammate and the son of former Philadelphia Eagle Lyle Sr.

The duo has already connected on three touchdowns, while Potts has thrown for nine total TD's in two games. They have talent and a great scheme, but having only played North Dakota and Rice, the Red Raiders have yet to see a defense as fast and as athletic as they will with the Longhorns this weekend.

In the end, experience, depth, homefield advantage, and revenge win out as Texas rolls to victory according to 89.6 percent of the 10,000 simulations and by an average score of 39-21.

Other Notable Games in Week Three

Texas Tech at Texas opens the Big 12 season and has plenty of drama, but there are some other great conference matchups with interesting back stories this weekend as well.

Hosting Lane Kiffin and Tennessee, Florida keeps its foot on the gas the whole game to win 95.0 percent of the time and by an average score of 44-8.

Georgia travels to Arkansas and wins a surprise shootout 70.7 percent of the time and by an average score of 28-23.

In its second of four consecutive games in different time zones, Fresno State hosts Boise State in a WAC showdown. The Bulldogs should play all four games close, yet probably will not win any of them. On Friday against the Broncos, Fresno State loses 76.8 percent of the time and by an average score of 26-18.

On Thursday night, Georgia Tech plays another close ACC game. This time, the Yellow Jackets narrowly escape Miami with a win 64.7 percent of the time by an average score of 21-17.

The non-conference schedule still has some intriguing matchups as well.

After impressive offensive displays from both teams to date, Virginia Tech and Nebraska find ways to put up some points in a very close game. At home, the Hokies win just 58.1 percent of the time and by an average score of 27-22.

The Cincinnati Bearcats travel to Corvallis, Oregon to take on their toughest opponent yet in Oregon State. They may not score 70 points like they did against Southeast Missouri State, but Cincinnati should still emerge victorious. The Bearcats win 65.1 percent and by an average score of 27-23.

Fellow Big East contender, West Virginia, scores a significant victory by going to Auburn and winning 84.8 percent of the time and by an average score of 30-18.

Florida State has a tough time putting up points against an impressive BYU defense. The Cougars win at home 76.8 percent of the time and by an average score of 30-19.

The game may not be as critical as once thought, yet Utah stays unbeaten by defeating Oregon 71.3 percent of the time at Autzen Stadium and by an average score of 27-23.

And, in a game that we originally predicted as a Louisville victory, Kentucky squeaks by the Cardinals at home 59.1 percent of the time and by an average score of 20-16.

And SMU goes to Pullman, Washington (it is in Pullman this week, right?) and wins 86.8 percent of the time and by an average score of 26-13.


Week Three Scores for Every FBS Game

Matchup	Home Win%	Avg Score
Elon @ Wake Forest	95.0	7.0-33.4
Gardner-Webb @ North Carolina State	95.0	8.7-31.2
Duke @ Kansas	95.0	14.6-39.3
Furman @ Missouri	95.0	8.8-43.5
Rice @ Oklahoma State	95.0	12.5-50.3
Charleston Southern @ South Florida	95.0	7.8-35.1
Eastern Michigan @ Michigan	95.0	8.4-36.8
Temple @ Penn State	95.0	7.7-36.8
Wofford @ Wisconsin	95.0	7.1-37.2
Alcorn State @ Central Michigan	95.0	6.3-34.9
Miami (OH) @ Western Michigan	95.0	6.0-31.5
Texas State @ TCU	95.0	5.9-39.1
Louisiana-Lafayette @ LSU	95.0	10.4-37.4
North Texas @ Alabama	95.0	7.2-40.7
Southeastern Louisiana @ Mississippi	95.0	6.7-50.3
Tennessee @ Florida	95.0	8.3-43.9
Nicholls State @ Louisiana Tech	94.4	7.3-30.2
Louisiana-Monroe @ Arizona State	93.8	7.1-30.2
Florida Atlantic @ South Carolina	91.0	10.3-29.0
Kansas State @ UCLA	90.2	8.3-27.1
Texas Tech @ Texas	89.6	20.6-39.1
Virginia @ Southern Miss	89.6	10.3-28.7
Cal Poly @ Ohio	89.0	8.2-26.4
Tennessee-Martin @ Memphis	85.4	10.3-27.1
Tulsa @ Oklahoma	84.4	19.4-35.5
Florida International @ Rutgers	84.2	13.3-28.5
Hawaii @ UNLV	82.6	17.6-31.8
San Jose State @ Stanford	82.2	12.5-26.3
Connecticut @ Baylor	80.4	12.3-26.3
Mississippi State @ Vanderbilt	78.8	10.7-23.0
Florida State @ Brigham Young	76.8	18.9-30.1
Michigan State @ Notre Dame	76.6	14.3-26.6
Ball State @ Army	75.6	11.0-21.3
Navy @ Pittsburgh	74.1	18.5-29.2
Utah State @ Texas A&M	69.5	21.1-29.1
Northern Illinois @ Purdue	69.1	17.9-26.5
East Carolina @ North Carolina	66.3	12.2-19.5
Iowa State @ Kent State	65.7	18.5-26.7
Middle Tennessee @ Maryland	62.3	18.9-24.8
Louisville @ Kentucky	59.1	15.6-20.0
Nebraska @ Virginia Tech	58.1	22.3-27.3
Boston College @ Clemson	55.5	16.3-19.0
Arizona @ Iowa	55.3	16.0-20.3
UAB @ Troy	53.3	23.7-26.6
Central Arkansas @ Western Kentucky	51.5	12.2-14.4
Buffalo @ UCF	38.5	17.3-15.4
San Diego State @ Idaho	37.9	21.2-18.5
Wyoming @ Colorado	36.7	18.6-16.3
Georgia Tech @ Miami (FL)	35.3	20.6-16.9
Cincinnati @ Oregon State	34.9	27.0-22.9
Northwestern @ Syracuse	32.9	21.1-16.8
Indiana @ Akron	31.9	25.0-20.9
Nevada @ Colorado State	31.1	27.0-22.6
Georgia @ Arkansas	29.3	27.7-22.8
UTEP @ New Mexico State	29.1	22.9-17.4
Utah @ Oregon	28.7	26.8-22.5
Boise State @ Fresno State	23.2	26.0-18.3
West Virginia @ Auburn	15.2	29.6-17.8
Bowling Green @ Marshall	13.2	31.4-17.3
Southern Methodist @ Washington State	13.2	26.4-13.4
Air Force @ New Mexico	8.8	29.2-12.7
California @ Minnesota	8.6	30.1-11.6
Ohio State @ Toledo	6.8	32.7-14.7
USC @ Washington	5.0	34.8-12.6