US Open 2026 Odds, Early Lines and Predictions for Top Sleepers in the Field

The U.S. Open isn't just the third major on the golfing calendar. It's also a tournament that tends to bring a few surprises. While traditional favorites like Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Xander Schauffele will certainly be in the mix, the challenging course layout of the tournament often leads to a sleeper victory—or, at least, a dark horse or two challenging on the final day.

Last year's U.S. Open, won by J.J. Spaun, serves as a prime example.

Spaun's victory also marked his first top-20 finish in a major. It was the first top-30 finish at the U.S. Open for runner-up Robert MacIntyre.

This year's tournament, held at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club on Long Island, will likely follow suit. It's a hard, fast course that will reward precision, patience, and adaptability.

"You've got Peconic Bay on one side, the Atlantic on the other, sandy soils, perched greens—and when you combine that with sun and wind, conditions can change incredibly quickly," USGA chief championships officer John Bodenhamer said, per Mike Stachura of Golf Digest.

Which sleepers are likely to have a realistic shot at this year's U.S. Open? Let's take a look.

The 126th U.S. Open

Bruce Bennett/Getty Images

When: June 18-21

Where: Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Southampton, New York

First Tee: 6:30 a.m. ET on Thursday

TV and Live Stream Schedule (all times ET)

Thursday: 6:30-5 p.m. on USA Network, 5-8 p.m. on Peacock

Friday: 6:30 a.m.-7:30 p.m. on Peacock and NBCSN, 1:30-7:30 p.m. on NBC

Saturday: 10 a.m.-12 p.m. on USA Network, 12-8 p.m. on NBC and Peacock

Sunday: 9 a.m.-12 p.m. on USA Network, 12-7 p.m. on NBC and Peacock

Live Stream: Peacock, USGA app, USOpen.com

Top Early Favorites

Scottie Scheffler +550 (bet $100 to win $550)

Rory McIlroy +1200

Jon Rahm +1300

Tommy Fleetwood +2200

Xander Schauffele +2000

Cameron Young +2000

Ludvig Åberg +2200

Bryson DeChambeau +2200

*Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook

Tyrrell Hatton (+4000)

Octavio Passos/Getty Images

Tyrell Hatton isn't among the top favorites, though, he's not exactly a dark horse either. The English golfer, who joined LIV in 2024, has 14 career wins, most of them coming on the European tour.

Hatton currently ranks 21st in the World Golf Rankings and has logged four top-10 finishes this season, including a third-place tie at The Masters.

While Hatton missed the cut at the PGA Championship, he logged a top-10 finish in two of the last three Masters and qualified for the U.S. Open by finishing tied for fourth at last year's U.S. Open at Oakmont.

In other words, Hatton is no stranger to success at challenging courses and in high-stakes tournaments. This experience, along with his precise and consistent ball striking, will give Hatton a very real chance to be in contention on Sunday at Shinnecock.

Prediction: Top-10 Finish

Chris Gotterup (+4500)

Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Chris Gotterup isn't one of the bigger names in the field, as he's an up-and-coming star who just turned pro in 2022. While the 26-year-old has yet to win a major, he's recorded four top-25 finishes and two top-10 finishes in majors since the start of last season.

Gotterup is another strong striker who should be able to avoid the rough at Shinnecock. He's also a strong distance driver who should put the ball on the green consistently. He faced a similar course at The Renaissance Club during last year's win at the Scottish Open.

"The pride of Rutgers will have plenty of local support, and he's already shown some links golf chops by beating Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open last year," Alex Myers of Golf Digest wrote.

Don't be surprised if Gotterup's rise continues this weekend with another strong finish against top competition.

Projection: Top-20 Finish

Robert MacIntyre (+6000)

Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images

While MacIntyre has missed the cut in both of this year's majors, his odds feel a little long, especially considering he nearly won last year's U.S. Open.

MacIntyre is the 17th-ranked player in the world, has logged three top-10 finishes in 2026, and possesses a skill set that is well-suited for the links-style conditions at Shinnecock. He has an elite iron game and is well-versed in dealing with windy conditions, as evidenced by wins at the 2024 Scottish Open and the 2025 Alfred Dunhill Championship.

"The Scot and recent Golf Digest cover boy should feel pretty at home at this links layout, "Myers wrote.

MacIntyre is still searching for his first win of the season and the first major victory of his career. He may not find either at the U.S. Open, but it'll be a mild surprise if he isn't in the running over the weekend.

Prediction: Top-30 Finish