Predicting NBA MVP, ROY and Every Major 2026 Award
It's just about time to put a bow on the 2025-26 NBA season.
Or maybe a trophy. Several trophies, actually.
Soon, the best and brightest performers over the course of this 82-game marathon will be handed out hardware in recognition of their performance. While these winners won't be officially revealed yet, several feel already locked in place.
With that said, there are some undecided races barreling toward photo finishes, including an all-time pursuit of the Rookie of the Year honor between a pair of former college teammates.
Our task here is to predict the results of that race and all the others before the league officially tallies them up.
Executive of the Year: Onsi Saleh
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This award is unique and not just for the most obvious reason (honoring someone other than players and coaches). The voting is handled by one executive from each team. There can't be a unanimous winner, since executives aren't allowed to vote for themselves.
It is often the single hardest award to predict, particularly in a season like this, where there is no obvious choice. While it's typically tied to someone overseeing a winner, historical precedent shows that difficult, seemingly patternless criteria should be used. Sometimes it has a lifetime-achievement type of feel, which sort of makes sense when these executives are almost always considering more than just the confines of that particular campaign.
Like, maybe the Memphis Grizzlies did a great job of dismantling their roster, but we won't actually know that for years. Just like we won't be able to see whether the Utah Jazz (Jaren Jackson Jr.) or the Washington Wizards (Trae Young, Anthony Davis) were wise to make their deadline additions.
Had the Houston Rockets launched themselves into short-list championship contention, Rafael Stone might've run away with the award for his Kevin Durant deal. Had the Orlando Magic corrected their imbalance with that costly Desmond Bane blockbuster, Jeff Weltman would've had a strong argument.
Instead, this feels like it could come down to our predicted winner, Onsi Saleh of the Atlanta Hawks, and Jeff Peterson of the Charlotte Hornets. Peterson absolutely nailed the 2025 draft—landing a difference-maker at No. 4 in Kon Knueppel and a couple rotation regulars in the second round (Ryan Kalkbrenner and Sion James)—and bolstered his bench with a deadline deal for Coby White.
Saleh, meanwhile, was recognized for having the best offseason last summer, making a discounted deal for Kristaps Porziņģis, turning a sizable trade exception into Nickeil Alexander-Walker and fleecing the New Orleans Pelicans for an uber-valuable 2026 first. All solid-to-spectacular stuff, right?
Well, where Saleh edged slightly ahead is with the in-season pivot away from Young. The Hawks recognized they needed a directional shift and had to clear the runway for breakout star Jalen Johnson. They gave themselves clarity and financial flexibility in the process—all while keeping themselves in the chase for a top-six seed.
Alexander-Walker has been awesome (more on that later), Porziņģis was later flipped for potential building block Jonathan Kuminga. That draft pick might deliver a centerpiece. Even Asa Newell, last summer's 23rd pick, has intrigued in limited minutes. That feels like an award-winning body of work in a season with no clear-cut choice for this honor.
Coach of the Year: J.B. Bickerstaff
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This award typically goes to the coach of the team that most exceeded expectations. This season, there are three strong candidates.
One is obviously Bickerstaff, and we'll dissect his body of work in a minute. Another is Boston Celtics skipper Joe Mazzulla, who stiff-armed the idea of a gap year, navigated around Jayson Tatum's Achilles injury and last summer's cost-cutting subtractions to keep his club in the Eastern Conference's elite class. The other is San Antonio Spurs coach Mitch Johnson, who ushered along a climb from 48 losses to 60-plus wins.
While voters might need a coin flip to guide their selections, Bickerstaff sealed our selection for the way his club handled the late-season loss of Cade Cunningham to a collapsed lung. Any team would obviously miss the presence of an MVP candidate, but this group seemed especially vulnerable, since Cunningham's scoring support was highly scrutinized throughout the season.
The worries were real that this dream season for Detroit—which featured Cunningham's ascension to superstar status, Jalen Duren's All-Star rise and full-scale defensive dominance—might derail at the least opportune time. Instead, the Pistons posted a .727 winning percentage and clinched the East's No. 1 seed without Cunningham.
A next evolutionary step certainly seemed possible for Detroit this season, but who saw this club conquering an entire conference? The good-to-great leap is the hardest to author in sports, but the Pistons made it appear seamless and almost inevitable—without always playing with their full deck of cards.
Mazzulla's work was nearly just as awesome and could certainly get him an award he couldn't care less about. But Bickerstaff transforming a young, developing team into a short-list championship contender ultimately got him the edge here.
Clutch Player of the Year: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
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Despite being such a statistically driven designation, this award doesn't always have a crystal clear selection. It absolutely does this year, though.
While the Oklahoma City Thunder are only 11th in total clutch minutes this season, their perpetually calm, cool and collected leader, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, sits first in total clutch points. And it's not particularly close. Only Jamal Murray, who's played more than 50 additional clutch minutes, is within 10 points of SGA, and only two other players (Nikola Jokić and Kevin Durant) are within 30.
There's more than volume pushing Gilgeous-Alexander to the top list. There's also the fiery 51.5/35.1/85.3 shooting slash assembled in the clutch, and his 3-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. And if that wasn't enough to clinch it, he's also the league leader—this time by a double-digit margin—in clutch plus/minus (plus-93 points, in 125 minutes).
If haters wanted to attack his volume by noting that OKC effectively runs all of its late-game offense through him, that might actually be a point in his favor. Opponents know he'll have the ball in his hands, yet they're still powerless to stop him.
"Shai's a great closer," Thunder head coach Mark Daigneault told reporters earlier this season. "... He has great confidence in those situations."
Most Improved Player: Nickeil Alexander-Walker
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The field for this award is typically crowded—even if you share the belief that second-year players shouldn't be considered—and this season is no different.
You've seen all kinds of improvements, from All-Star breakouts (Jalen Duren, Jalen Johnson, Deni Avdija) to fringe rotation players becoming indispensable starters (Neemias Queta, Collin Gillespie, Ryan Rollins).
Yet, the rise of Nickeil Alexander-Walker feels like it best captures the spirit of this award. This isn't some ballyhooed, blue-chip prospect coming into his own or someone simply enjoying the statistical perks of a big spike in playing time. Instead, it's a seasoned, well-traveled, seemingly established veteran seizing an opportunity to reroute their career trajectory.
This is the best version we've ever seen from NAW, and it's not close. It'd be one thing if you could just pin his career-high 20.9 points onto his career-high 33.4 minutes, but he's been more potent on a per-minute basis than ever before (by not a small margin).
All three layers of his 45.8/39.9/90.2 shooting slash are personal bests. He's never had a higher player efficiency rating (16.5), a lower turnover percentage (11.0) or more win shares (6.2).
"He better win (MIP)," his cousin, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander told reporters. "I think what's most impressive about it is just how he stuck with it... We've talked so many times–countless times–about just being ready when the moment comes, and I'm just proud of how much he stuck with it and has taken advantage of this moment."
Sixth Man of the Year: Keldon Johnson
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There have been some legitimately awesome second-teamers this season, but with absences torpedoing the arguments for Ajay Mitchell and Isaiah Stewart, this award feels like a two-man race between Keldon Johnson of the San Antonio Spurs and Jaime Jaquez Jr. of the Miami Heat.
If you wanted to make a spirited argument for Jaquez, we'd certainly hear it out. His scoring, distributing and overall offensive aggression have been invaluable for the Heat. He is first in total bench points and second in bench assists.
But Johnson has been nearly as productive as a scorer (and actually more productive per 36 minutes) while being far more efficient as a shooter (61.3 true shooting percentage to Jaquez's 56.4). He's also a massive reason San Antonio boasts one of the NBA's best bench units (fifth in efficiency, 10 spots above Miami).
This race shows one of the smaller gaps of all the awards, but Johnson's win boils down to superior efficiency and willingness to play his role on a much better team.
Defensive Player of the Year: Victor Wembanyama
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There has never been a unanimous winner of this award. That should change now.
There isn't a defensive presence in the NBA like Victor Wembanyama. Not now, maybe not never. The dimensions alone are silly (7'4" with an 8'0" wingspan), but once you add in the mobility, fluidity, and feel, that's when you veer into extraterrestrial territory.
If there's a metric that doesn't treat Wembanyama as the best defender in basketball, that's not really a metric worth revisiting. He's first in defensive estimated plus/minus, first in defensive win shares, first in defensive box plus/minus, first in defensive LEBRON—you get the idea.
He's about to lead the league in blocks for the third time (in three seasons). He has the best defensive field-goal percentage differential among rotation regulars (minus-8.9). He drops San Antonio's defensive rating by over 10 points per 100 possessions just by taking the floor.
When he isn't blocking shots, he's altering them. When he's not doing both, he's probably forced opponents to think they aren't even worth the attempt. No one shrinks the floor and constricts opponents quite like him.
The eye test and the stat sheet both agree that, provided he qualifies, he is the runaway winner.
Rookie of the Year: Cooper Flagg
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For the early portion of this season, it felt like this was Cooper Flagg's award to lose. Then, Kon Knueppel, his teammate Duke, shot his way into the history books and turned his Charlotte Hornets into surprise juggernauts while an injured Flagg watched his Dallas Mavericks toil near the bottom of the West standings.
By that point, it felt like the scales tipped firmly in Knueppel's favor. And a lot of folks might think that's still where they sit, praising the No. 4 pick for his advanced efficiency, ability to impact the game with more than shooting and invaluable contributions to Charlotte's amazing about-face.
Knueppel's case is super compelling—and would be award-winning in a lot of seasons. But Flagg just has a different top gear, and since this reward often lands with the most specatcular rookie (not necessarily the most successful one), our crystal ball thinks he'll edge out this hard-fought race.
Flagg, who turned 19 in December, is on course to become just the fifth rookie ever to average 21 points, six rebounds, four assists and a steal. The others are two Hall of Famers (Michael Jordan and Larry Bird), a future Hall of Famer (Luka Dončić) and a four-time All-Star who somehow peaked as a rookie (Sidney Wicks).
NBA freshmen—let alone teenage freshmen—aren't supposed to be this great this quickly. And yet, Knueppel has been so incredible that he probably still had this vote until Flagg went supernova over the campaign's penultimate weekend, delivering 96 points, 14 rebounds and 12 assists over a two-game stretch.
"I think it's definitely some sort of statement," Flagg told reporters after following a 51-point outburst with a 45-point near-triple-double. "But it just goes back to what I said: I'm confident in myself, and I know what I'm capable of. I'll just let the rest of the stuff figure itself out."
If it didn't feel like such a cop-out. We might call for Co-Rookies of the Year (which has happened before). Forced to choose, though, give us the rookie with sensational across-the-board numbers over the one with great supporting stats on a superior team.
MVP: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
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It looked like this might be an MVP race for the ages, and theoretically, that's still how things could play out. Even with injuries wrecking the arguments for Cade Cunningham and Luka Dončić, there's still so much to like about Victor Wembanyama's two-way impact and Nikola Jokić's latest statistical absurdities.
But Gilgeous-Alexander isn't vacating his throne. And we aren't the only ones making that claim.
That's how oddsmakers have it. Straw-poll voters agree. Players reached the same conclusion, too, with SGA receiving nearly twice as much support as anyone in a recent polling of 161 anonymous players by The Athletic.
"He's the best player on the best team," one player responded. "What more do you have to say?"
More probably needs to be said, of course, but there are so many talking points to put forth. OKC's dominance is definitely on the list—especially with the injury trouble it's had—but SGA's individual brilliance is just as critical.
His inside-the-arc efficiency and midrange mastery are Michael Jordan-esque. SGA's metronomic consistency is on a Wilt Chamberlain level. The reigning MVP is somehow unstoppable, both driving to the basket and stopping on the way for a pull-up jumper. And in those rare moments where he's not getting buckets off those actions, he's getting free throws out of them.
No one has produced more win shares. No one has a higher plus/minus (or anything remotely close to it). And for as good as his team is, it's really otherworldly with him (plus-14.7 net rating) and good-not-great without him (plus-5.1).
So, yeah, props and hat tips to the other players in this "race," but this is SGA's award. Again.
