UFC Fight Night 73: Main Card Betting Odds and Predictions

The UFC takes over Nashville this weekend with a six-fight main card.

Light heavyweight contenders Glover Teixeira and Ovince Saint Preux will headline the action in a five-round affair. Teixeira is coming off back-to-back losses, but Saint Preux is coming in off back-to-back wins. Will momentum play a role?

The co-main event features No. 5-ranked lightweight contender Michael Johnson squaring off against No. 12-ranked Beneil Dariush.

The question remains—where is the value on this card?

Saturday's event should bring a lot of excitement to your television screens. Let's take a look at UFC Fight Night 73 and its betting odds heading into the weekend.

Ray Borg (-500) vs. Geane Herrera (+350)

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No. 14-ranked flyweight Ray Borg welcomes 25-year-old Geane Herrera to the UFC in the opening main card bout.

Herrera comes to the UFC after posting a perfect 8-0 record on the regional circuit, while Borg is one of the rising contenders at 125 pounds. Borg has won two straight after dropping his UFC debut to Dustin Ortiz by split decision.

I don't have a lot of faith in Herrera at these odds. Playing Herrera would be more enticing if he had a more extensive record against any notable flyweight.

Look for Borg to open the evening with a dominant decision victory. Avoid playing this fight, as there isn't any value.

Prediction: Borg defeats Herrera by decision

The Play: No value in this fight

Chris Camozzi (-155) vs. Tom Watson (+125)

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Chris Camozzi returned to the UFC to try his hand against Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza for a second time, and it went about as well as the first go-around. That is to say, not well.

Camozzi has lost his last five UFC contests, but did win two away from the organization prior to his return. Tom Watson is 1-3 in his last four.

This could be an entertaining brawl or a lackluster grind. I am guessing it will be more of the latter.

That kind of fight favors Camozzi. Watson tends to slow after the first round. Camozzi can grind through the first five minutes and easily take the next two rounds with grappling. And at minus-155 there should be some value on the American. Take it.

Prediction: Camozzi defeats Watson by decision

The Play: A small play on Camozzi

Jared Rosholt (-230) vs. Timothy Johnson (+180)

Brandon Wade/Associated Press

If you are not a fan of slow, plodding heavyweight fights, then you should probably plan something else to do for 20 minutes while this fight takes place.

Timothy Johnson has the proverbial puncher's chance this weekend, but it is most likely Jared Rosholt will simply take him down and outwrestle him. And you can get him at minus-230. That seems like a steal, but maybe you should look at a prop on this fight going to a decision.

I am not exactly sure why this fight is on the main card over Sara McMann vs. Amanda Nunes, but it is. What a shame.

Rosholt is a solid play in an uninteresting fight.

Prediction: Rosholt defeats Johnson by decision

The Play: Take Rosholt

Derek Brunson (-450) vs. Sam Alvey (+325)

Jeff Chiu/Associated Press

This could be a very fun fight. Sam Alvey has proved to be immensely entertaining, but it will be a big step up against Derek Brunson.

Brunson enters as the No. 15-ranked middleweight contender.

Alvey's knockouts and power make playing him at plus-325 enticing, but he's not a particularly great striker. Against Cezar Ferreira he was getting tagged repeatedly until he happened to land the knockout punch. Brunson should have Alvey scouted well enough to take this fight.

Alvey's toughness should allow him to survive, but he will eat a lot of strikes from Brunson.

Prediction: Brunson defeats Alvey by decision

The Play: Skip this fight

Michael Johnson (-170) vs. Beneil Dariush (+140)

Brandon Wade/Associated Press

The co-main event of the evening may be the best fight on the card. Lightweights Michael Johnson and Beneil Dariush are trying to state their case as being a title contender.

Johnson is on an impressive four-fight win streak that no one is talking about. Dariush is on a four-fight streak of his own after getting past Jim Miller.

The odds reflect the closeness of this fight. Johnson is more athletic and powerful, but Dariush is the better grappler. Johnson may try keeping this fight standing to avoid playing in Dariush's world.

This is a coin-flip type of fight, and I don't think there's a good enough return to take a risk on either fighter. However, if you feel like there is a certain outcome—Johnson by knockout, Dariush via submission or the fight going to a decision—then you can likely locate a good prop bet to find that return.

I think Dariush will catch Johnson late in the fight with a submission. A tired Johnson will make a small mistake and get tapped for it.

Prediction: Dariush defeats Johnson via submission in the third round

The Play: Don't play this straight up, find a prop

Glover Teixeira (-130) vs. Ovince Saint Preux (EVEN)

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The main event will put the winner right into title contention, and that kind of importance may make the fighters a bit more tight in the early going of the fight.

Ovince Saint Preux will be fighting in front of friends and family. That kind of pressure can give fighters a boost, or it can be detrimental to their performance. How he handles that this weekend may play a large role.

Teixeira is a more technical and tactical striker, and that is what will ultimately win him the fight. Saint Preux gets too flashy with his strikes at times, and as the fight drags on he will get more sloppy. The holes that will open will make it easier for Teixeira to knock him out.

I'm not too confident on picking either man straight up, but a prop bet on Teixeira winning by KO/TKO should have a greater return. I think that's the best bet for this fight.

Prediction: Teixeira defeats Saint Preux by TKO in the third round

The Play: Take a prop on Teixeira by TKO

All odds provided by OddsShark.com.