Preseason Coaches Poll: Teams That Will Be the 1st to Drop

The Amway Coaches Poll came out Thursday with traditional powerhouse programs making up the bulk of the list. However, multiple teams will see themselves drop early in the season, possibly even out of the poll entirely.

Teams like the Ohio State Buckeyes, TCU Horned Frogs and Baylor Bears have relatively light schedules in the early going, but other teams in the Top 25 do not have this luxury. There are multiple games in the first few weeks of the season that could shake up the rankings.

Four teams appear to be in danger of falling in the polls because of uncertainty and possible weaknesses in their own squads as well as tough early-season matchups. Let's take a look at why these programs will be among the first to drop from their rankings.

Clemson

Head coach Dabo Swinney’s Clemson Tigers return 11 starters from a team that finished 10-3 in 2014. 

Most of these returning players are on the offensive side of the ball, which is why Clemson enters the year at No. 12. Quarterback Deshaun Watson should be healthy, and the offense returns leading rusher Wayne Gallman as well as top receivers Mike Williams, Artavis Scott and Charone Peake. 

Tyler Smith/Getty Images

The Tigers should be able to score points if Watson can stay on the field. However, it may take a few games to find a rhythm since former offensive coordinator Chad Morris is now the head coach at SMU. Morris created one of the best offenses in the nation for four seasons. Clemson promoted running backs coach Tony Elliott and receivers coach Jeff Scott to co-offensive coordinators.

Defense is the major issue. Clemson loses most of its starters from a unit that finished as one of the best in the country. The team loses a ton in the front seven, including defensive end Vic Beasley and linebacker Stephone Anthony, though the pass defense should be solid, with cornerback Mackensie Alexander and safety Jayron Kearse returning.

Here is a look at the key losses on defense:

Player	Tackles	Tackles for Loss	Sacks	Interceptions
LB Stephone Anthony	75	10.5	2	1
S Robert Smith	69	2.5	0	2
DE Vic Beasley	34	21.5	12	0

The Tigers face a tough stretch in Weeks 3 to 5, with a game at Louisville and then home contests against Notre Dame and Georgia Tech. All three of these teams boast strong offenses, which could spell trouble for Clemson.

Louisville will be a difficult game, but Clemson should have the edge based on pure talent. However, Notre Dame returns 19 starters and will be among the nation’s best teams. Georgia Tech returns quarterback Justin Thomas and four offensive linemen from a team that beat the Tigers in 2014.

The Yellow Jackets have also scored at least 28 points on Clemson in the last three seasons, and with the Tigers’ defensive issues, they should easily surpass that mark again, especially with Georgia Tech's powerful running game taking on a depleted Clemson front seven.

Clemson may not be fully clicking on offense, and the defense is sure to go through some growing pains. Thus, the Tigers will lose at least once to either Notre Dame or Georgia Tech—and possibly both. They seem likely to drop early in the coaches poll.

LSU

LSU is traditionally among the top programs in college football, which is likely why it sits at No. 13 in the coaches poll.

This is despite the fact that the team struggled immensely in 2014, finishing at 8-5. The Tigers look to be in danger of a similar fate this season.

Quarterback issues derailed the offense a year ago, and the same problems could persist. Starter Anthony Jennings is currently suspended, and backup Brandon Harris had a rough time last season. Overall, the Tigers finished 109th in passing offense.

Here are the quarterback numbers from 2014:

Player	Completion Percentage	Yards	Touchdowns	Interceptions
Jennings	48.9%	1,611	11	7
Harris	55.6%	462	6	2

The quarterback spot should improve, but the massive uncertainty at the position puts the Tigers higher in the coaches poll than is probably warranted. The Advocate’s Scott Rabalais seems to agree: 

Brynn Anderson/Associated Press

The Tigers’ early-season schedule is also less than favorable. LSU must go on the road at Mississippi State, a team that beat the Tigers in 2014 and returns Heisman Trophy candidate Dak Prescott. The next week, Auburn is in town with one of the nation’s best offenses.

LSU will show why it was overrated heading into 2015. The defense will be strong enough to keep the Tigers in each game, but an anemic offense will struggle to produce points. The Mississippi State and Auburn offenses will eventually break through, and the Bayou Bengals will start the season 1-2 and in legitimate danger of falling out of the coaches poll.

Oklahoma 

At 8-5, the Oklahoma Sooners experienced the program’s worst season since 2009 and return a decent 13 starters, so why are they ranked No. 19 over proven teams like Arizona and Missouri?

The most plausible reason is because Oklahoma is one of the most prestigious programs in America. However, the Sooners should not expect to be this high for long.

Head coach Bob Stoops’ team has one of the toughest nonconference road games in the country when it visits Tennessee in Neyland Stadium.

The Volunteers return 18 starters after a promising 7-6 season. This includes dual-threat quarterback Joshua Dobbs and one of the SEC’s best running backs in Jalen Hurd. Eight starters also return from a defense that finished 32nd nationally in total defense.

The entire situation spells trouble for the Sooners. Outside of running back Samaje Perine, Oklahoma has no threats on offense. Trevor Knight struggled last season, with only 14 touchdown passes and 12 picks, and Sterling Shepard is the only proven receiver. 

On defense, the Sooners could have some trouble stopping Hurd, as All-Big 12 defensive tackles Jordan Phillips and Chuka Ndulue are gone. This should allow Dobbs more time to throw or scramble, like he had in the play below: 

Especially with the game being in Knoxville, Tennessee should win.

Another loss against an always-strong West Virginia team two weeks later would put the Sooners outside of the Top 25. Normally, a team ranked No. 19 falling out of the coaches poll in the first few weeks is not too alarming. But the fact that Oklahoma is involved makes this a drastic possibility, especially since the Sooners have not been out of the Top 25 since 2009.

Oregon

The Oregon Ducks once again start the season in the Top Five of the coaches poll, and again they are set to take on Michigan State in a massive early-season showdown.

The Ducks were able to beat the Spartans 46-27 in Eugene last season, but this year, they must travel to Michigan State, which starts at No. 6 in the poll, on Sept. 12. 

Dynamic offensive playmakers are still abundant for head coach Mark Helfrich, but there are multiple questions for Oregon heading into this matchup.

The quarterback position is unsettled, as Jeff Lockie is battling graduate transfer Vernon Adams. The Eastern Washington transfer is a dual-threat quarterback who lit up the FCS and is expected to win the job, but his future may be uncertain. Adams has apparently not graduated from his previous school, and Helfrich gave a cryptic answer at Pac-12 media days regarding Adams, per USA Today’s Dan Wolken: 

Oregon’s offense relies on the quarterback to run the show and distribute the ball to his playmakers in space. Lockie played sparingly in 2014, but he is a big question mark and a relative unknown. This could hurt the Ducks offense, especially early on.

The other issue is in the secondary, where the team is young and must replace both cornerbacks from last season. This is bad news with Michigan State trotting out potential NFL first-round draft pick Connor Cook at quarterback.

These two factors, along with the game being in East Lansing, put Oregon in a tough spot, and it will be unlikely to end well.

This loss will drop Oregon out of the Top Five and possibly the Top 10. A game two weeks later against Utah, which finished 9-4 last season and returns 14 starters, will also be challenging. A trip-up there would send Oregon plummeting in the polls. The quarterback position will be a huge storyline for the Ducks this year.

All statistics are courtesy of ESPN.com.

Clemson defensive stats courtesy of ClemsonTigers.com.

All information regarding returning starters comes from Phil Steele's projections.