Pelicans 2015-16 Schedule: Top Games, Championship Odds and Record Predictions
The New Orleans Pelicans' plan, insomuch as you can call it one, worked in 2014-15. Their free-agent splurging—largely on above-market contracts for young veterans—resulted in a playoff spot in the Western Conference gauntlet. It also helped persuade Anthony Davis, a generational superstar who may be the rightful heir to King James' throne, to sign a five-year contract extension on July 1.
There is a player option for the fifth season, but the implication is clear: Davis will be spending a vast majority of his prime in New Orleans.
That's all good news for the franchise, as this Pelicans core tries to assess its ceiling. Their mass jettisoning of first-round picks—Davis is the only draft pick to remain with the team since 2012—has left their roster thin and highly dependent on their core six players.
Unfortunately, that core has consistently failed to stay healthy. Jrue Holiday missed 42 games, Eric Gordon and Ryan Anderson were each on the bench for 20 plus and even Davis missed extended time. Their projected preseason starting lineup played just 13 games together overall.
Expecting this team to stay fully healthy in 2015-16 would ignore their history, but injury luck is bound to regress to the mean a little bit. That should open up an opportunity in a somewhat weakened Western Conference. The top four (or five if we're including Houston) are solidly locked in. After that, though, New Orleans is part of a murky group that could make some postseason waves if things go right.
With the NBA releasing its full slate of 82 games Wednesday—the full schedule can be seen here—let's take a look at some of the biggest schedule highlights and assess how the Pelicans will do this season.
Marquee Matchups
New Orleans Pelicans at Miami Heat
Date: Friday, Dec. 25 (12 p.m. ET)
This game, ostensibly, is the Pelicans' entrance into the NBA's marquee. Playing on Christmas is a huge deal. Outside the Lakers and Knicks, who have each received Dec. 25 games in recent seasons despite reaching their respective franchise nadirs, the league typically pushes to pit the best of the best against one another.
Miami and New Orleans make for a good matchup because both teams are on a generally similar path. Looking at their starting fives, you could talk yourself into a conference finals run. Davis and Chris Bosh are two of the very best big men in the game; Dwyane Wade and Goran Dragic are a solid offensive backcourt, similar to the Eric Gordon-Jrue Holiday pairing; Omer Asik and Hassan Whiteside are enigmatic defensive monsters, albeit in different ways.
Unfortunately, both benches keep the expected trajectory low. The Heat's best reserve is probably Mario Chalmers or Amar'e Stoudemire until Justise Winslow shows promise or Josh McRoberts proves he's 100 percent back from injury. Their bench situation almost makes New Orleans' look admirable by comparison, which also makes this game a bit of a risk from the NBA's perspective.
One major injury here and we're looking at a potential dud. If Davis goes down, the foundational star the NBA is trying to promote is gone. If Wade or Bosh are hobbled, the Heat are probably headed for the type of lottery-level performance that happened down the stretch last season. This is a precarious contest, which is why it probably makes sense for it to have a non-marquee time on the docket.
Still, if all parties involved are healthy, this game could wind up stealing the show.
New Orleans Pelicans at Oklahoma City Thunder
Date: Wednesday, Nov. 18 (8 p.m. ET)
The Thunder and Pelicans don't necessarily have a natural rivalry. Their biggest similarity, realistically, is that their franchises were both ripped away from cities that had long supported them. (That Charlotte waited all of about eight minutes for a new franchise while Seattle is still lingering is, uhh, quite the weird quirk.)
The stars of New Orleans and Oklahoma City, however, may become intrinsically linked over the next few years. LeBron James, cyborg human that he is, will not be the NBA's best player forever. We may wake up one day midway through this season and realize he's taken a marked step down. (Defensively, one could argue he's already there.)
The two players most likely to take the King's crown will go head-to-head in this matchup. Kevin Durant has long been seen as the rightful heir. His 2014 MVP run put him ahead of James in some people's eyes, especially given the work he's put in to become a better passer and defender. A Jones fracture stopped Durant's trajectory in its tracks. He was limited to 27 games last season, and there is no real guarantee he'll ever be the same after undergoing three procedures over the last year.
Davis may have used that 12-month pause in Durant's career to nudge him to second place for the post-LeBron spot. There aren't many players like Davis in NBA history. He's a 6'10" behemoth who runs the floor, has elite lateral quickness, block shots and is learning how to stretch the floor. Those midrange jumpers he's hitting with consistency are eventually going to become threes, and then the NBA is going to be a sad, despondent place for the next decade or so.
Durant turns 27 in September and has the more fully-formed game at the moment. He's probably the player you'd want of the two if you're starting a franchise for 2015-16. But Davis has a chance to change that conversation this season.
Record Prediction
The Pelicans will be a lot like they were last season. For better and for worse. There is no way they will have as much bad luck with injuries, but the depth isn't here. The Pelicans essentially have a six-man team and a few replacement-level options hanging on the bench.
Alexis Ajinca is better than most would give him credit for being and Norris Cole (who will almost certainly be back) has his moments, but these aren't difference makers. Quincy Pondexter and Anderson are floor spacers who will help offensively while being glaring minuses on the other end. Outside Anderson, who plays his role well enough to be a starter on most NBA teams, New Orleans' bench is a collection of ninth and tenth men being asked to play primary backup duty.
The ceiling here is limited, even with one of the NBA's five best players anchoring things. A fully healthy Pelicans team is good enough to surprise people and push for a low-50s win total. A more realistic outlook projects them as slightly improved but still in one of the bottom two seeds in the Western Conference playoff race.
This core is good enough to do that every year. The problem is that the clock has already begun ticking on national patience.
Championship Odds (via Oddsshark): 150-1
Record Prediction: 50-32
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