
Fantasy Football 2015: 15 Players Who Will Ruin Your Draft
It’s about that time when more and more fantasy football players start diving into research and playing out mock drafts and scheduling their real drafts. Draft day can be the most fun you’ll have all football season, or it can turn into an absolute disaster that you’ll regret for months or maybe even the year, depending on how ruthless your friends are.
That brings you here, where we’ll discuss 15 players who could ruin your draft, season, year, life, etc.
The inclusion of these players doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll be busts. It could just mean that for the price you’re going to pay, they're just not worth it.
Most of this list, however, will be about players who are overhyped and overvalued. So, with that said, let’s throw some names under the bus.
Scoring and average draft position (ADP) information will be based on ESPN standard scoring leagues.
DeMarco Murray
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Murray’s 1,845 rushing yards last season were nearly 500 more than the second most. His 392 carries, however, were also the most by 80.
In fact, they were the most regular-season carries since Larry Johnson toted the rock 416 times for the Kansas City Chiefs back in 2006.
Murray is bound for some serious regression for two reasons: He’s not behind that NFL-best offensive line with the Cowboys in Dallas anymore, and he’s got a legitimate second option in Ryan Mathews behind him.
The Philadelphia Eagles would be wise to not let Murray carry the ball nearly 400 times, and in head coach Chip Kelly’s fast-paced offense, there’s a good chance the running backs will sub out fairly often.
If you want to draft Murray, his current ADP is ninth overall. That’s ahead of guys such as C.J. Anderson, LeSean McCoy and Matt Forte.
Aaron Rodgers
2 of 15
Before you rage-throw your computer across the room, understand this. Rodgers should be the highest-scoring player in fantasy this year.
That doesn’t mean you need to draft him in the first round.
In most leagues, that’s where you’ll need to take him in order to get him. That means you’re passing up the elite running backs and wide receivers to get a guy.
Rodgers was the top scorer in ESPN fantasy leagues last year, outscoring the leading non-quarterback, DeMarco Murray, by 60 points.
Case in point as to why Rodgers deserves to go in the first round, right? Not so much.
Five other quarterbacks outscored DeMarco Murray as well. The last of those was Drew Brees, who scored 52 fewer points than Rodgers.
That equals out to about three points per week. While that’s not necessarily small potatoes—if you’ve played fantasy football before, you’ve probably lost by fewer points than that—it’s not worth burning a first-round pick when you can just as easily take Brees in the fourth.
Or, if you really are concerned, you can possible get Andrew Luck, who scored just six fewer points than Rodgers, in the second round. A lot of that will depend on your draft position, of course.
Either way, you can find good value at quarterback throughout the draft. Rodgers should be considered the top QB for sure, but having Luck and Jamaal Charles or Forte or Le'Veon Bell is going to be better than Rodgers and Jeremy Hill.
C.J. Spiller
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If you’re in a PPR league, disregard this—for the most part.
The New Orleans Saints' Spiller is expected to be Darren Sproles 2.0, which in theory sounds delightful. But Spiller is sitting behind a running back who had a career year (Mark Ingram), a quarterback who throws 40-plus times a game (Drew Brees) and next to a coach (Sean Payton) known for using a multitude of running backs.
Oh, and try to think of a year when Spiller didn’t have some sort of injury slowing him down. If you’re in a PPR league, he might be worth a shot (his ADP is at 64, according to ESPN).
Otherwise, steer clear.
Rob Gronkowski
4 of 15
Another best player at his position, Gronk can be a difference-maker for your team. His inclusion on this list isn’t to say he’s a bust. It isn’t even to say he’s not worth a first-round pick, although that is certainly debatable.
But if you burn a first on Gronk, you’re putting your eggs in an unstable basket.
Gronk’s current ADP on ESPN is 15th overall, just outside of the first round. That number will likely creep up more once fantasy players who aren’t committed as much as someone doing a mock draft in July begin to draft.
When it does, avoid the temptation to draft the one-man party—if not for anything else, just because he’s risky. Gronk’s health has always been less than stellar, and now he’s going to be missing sidekick Tom Brady for the first four games.
A lot of people are down on Jimmy Graham since his move to the Seattle Seahawks, and with an ADP of 28, he might carry less potential reward than Gronk. But Graham also has less risk solely based on where you have to spend a pick on him.
Jeremy Maclin
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The Kansas City Chiefs had zero touchdown receptions by their wide receivers. None.
Two offensive linemen had more touchdown receptions than the entire Chiefs receiving core.
Granted, a downfield threat Dwayne Bowe is not. But was that his fault or quarterback Alex Smith’s fault?
Maclin had a great year in Philly, but those two offenses aren’t even comparable. He’s going about 72nd overall, which isn’t a terrible reach at all.
If you want to take a risk on him, he’s going just ahead of receivers such as Kevin White and Mike Wallace. So, that’s understandable.
However, he’s also going right around the same place as non-WRs such as Julius Thomas, Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, Tony Romo and Tom Brady. At this point in the draft, you’d probably be better off taking your quarterback or a shot on a high-upside guy.
Jamaal Charles
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While we're ragging on the Chiefs, let's talk about the highest-drafted player on this list, Jamaal Charles.
He’s going about third overall, and his production fell heavily last year. Charles carried the ball 84 fewer times than Le'Veon Bell and 74 times fewer than Marshawn Lynch, two running backs he’s going directly in front of.
And that wasn’t really due to injury. Backup RB Knile Davis took 134 carries last season.
Charles also lost 40 fantasy points in receiving last season as well. He’s still one of the most productive backs on the field, but he’s on the field much less now.
Tim Tebow
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Just stop.
You’re not the first person to think it would be funny to draft Tebow or another guy with little to no chance of sniffing the field. Don’t be that person.
Even if it is remotely entertaining, you’re better off taking a flier on someone you think could actually be productive.
Seattle Seahawks D/ST
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The Seattle Seahawks defense and special teams are going about 51st overall, ahead of players such as DeSean Jackson, Andre Ellington, T.J. Yeldon, Amari Cooper and, more importantly, about 28 spots in front of the second D/ST off the board, the Buffalo Bills.
The Seahawks have the most recognizable defense for sure. But it's probably not going to be the best.
Earl Thomas and Richard Sherman are coming off major injuries, and while Sherman has been medically cleared, he admitted some concern about his elbow to Ed Werder of ESPN.com.
“Obviously haven't had to stop anyone or be violent, so we will see how it handles in training camp,” Sherman said.
The Seahawks defense was the first one drafted last season as well, and it finished third behind the Eagles and the Bills. This season doesn’t look better.
Sammy Watkins
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This will be a short explanation of why you should avoid drafting Watkins, who’s going about 47th overall.
Ready?
Matt Cassel. EJ Manuel.
If you need more of a reason than that, Watkins also had offseason hip surgery, and the Bills got a shiny new LeSean McCoy toy and a run-heavy, defensive-minded coach in Rex Ryan.
Nick Foles
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Foles took a major step back last season, throwing 13 touchdowns to 10 interceptions in nine weeks. And that was in Chip Kelly’s high-flying, fast-paced offense. It’s not going to get any better with the St. Louis Rams, and Foles is being drafted ahead of QBs such as Colin Kaepernick, Derek Carr and Carson Palmer.
Any one of those three has more potential than Foles.
Todd Gurley
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This is more of a precautionary tale. Todd Gurley is going 50th overall, which isn’t bad value for a player with his potential. But he’s also coming off a torn ACL and has a capable running back in the stable with him in Tre Mason.
Chances are someone will reach for him on draft day because he’s the most hyped rookie in fantasy. Don’t let that person be you.
You could get the steal of the draft, or you could set your team back immensely.
Remember Bishop Sankey?
Darren Sproles
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Unless you’re in a PPR league, avoid, avoid, avoid.
Sproles put up more than 10 fantasy points in standard scoring three times last year. In fact, he had 10 or more total touches just three times.
Things aren’t going to get much better for Sproles behind two very capable RBs (Murray and Mathews) instead of just one. Even in a PPR league, he’s probably not worth it at this point.
Jonathan Stewart
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DeAngelo Williams is finally gone; Stewart’s going to be the lead back. Right?!
According to Dave Richard, a CBS Sports fantasy football analyst, Carolina Panthers coach Ron Rivera still believes in the two-back system and would prefer to keep Stewart at a 15 carry-per-game max.
That’s probably not going to be useful outside of deeper leagues, and Stewart comes with an average price tag of about 43rd overall.
Mike Evans
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Evans had a great rookie season despite who was throwing him the ball, so it may be a surprise to see him on this list with a new, more hyped QB.
But nobody knows how Jameis Winston will perform in the NFL yet. So that makes Evans risky—especially given his price point.
Evans is being taken about 30th overall ahead of receivers such as Emmanuel Sanders and DeAndre Hopkins and just ahead of running backs such as Alfred Morris, Justin Forsett and Melvin Gordon.
Evans could very well do just fine with Winston at QB. He may even do better. But at 30th overall, he’s just a little too risky.
Stephen Gostkowski
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Last and maybe least: the kicker.
Gostkowski is being taken 83rd overall. While his 168 points scored last season were more than Alshon Jeffery and LeSean McCoy scored (seriously), it’s not worth it to take a kicker in the seventh to eighth round.
Seriously, draft a kicker in the last round or two. Nick Folk, the New York Jets' kicker, scored just 41 fewer points than Gostkowski. That’s fewer than 2.5 points per game.
All stats and info courtesy of ESPN.com unless otherwise noted.
Follow Aaron Brand on Twitter @AaronBrand47.
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