Expert College Football Betting Locks for 2025 Playoff 1st-Round Games

Long gone are the days of waiting weeks for postseason football to begin.

While the current 12-team playoff is by no means perfect—just ask the nearest Notre Dame football fan in your vicinity—the expedited calendar is one of the true joys of the new format.

Oh, and we get games on actual college campuses in the first round. We can't forget about that glorious adaptation, either.

This week, the true beauty of this imperfect postseason will be on display in the form of four unique playoff games.

In total, we have two games with double-digit spreads and two more featuring wildly compelling storylines. Per tradition, we will bet each and every one, which will also be the case for each round of the postseason and the national championship.

With that in mind, let's dig deep for successful picks. 

Alabama (-1.5) at Oklahoma

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We've seen this game before. In fact, it happened roughly one month ago.

Oklahoma visited Alabama, and the Sooners grinded out a 23-21 victory. In that game, the Crimson Tide finished with more than 400 yards, nearly doubling the output on the home team.

Alabama also dominated time of possession, had fewer penalties, and was better on both third and fourth down.

The difference? Oklahoma forced three costly Alabama turnovers.

Since that matchup, neither team's offense has looked particularly playoff-worthy. The Sooners followed up that win with back-to-back 17-point outputs. They did, however, win both games.

Alabama, meanwhile, nearly lost to Auburn and was promptly clobbered by Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, finishing that game with a staggering negative three rushing yards.

The total, which is sitting right around 40, implies what kind of game we are likely to have: ugly. At the very least, the weather should cooperate with calm conditions even if the offenses don't deliver.

Am I oozing with confidence picking Alabama? Not really. But this offense still found plenty of success against Oklahoma previously, and that feels like the most interesting tidbit in a game loaded with uncertainty.

The Pick: Alabama (-1.5)

Texas A&M (-3.5) vs. Miami

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In terms of overall intrigue, especially given the conversation over the past few weeks, it is hard to find a game with more to offer than this.

Miami found its way into the playoff at the very end, and the reward is a trip to one of the sport's most hostile environments against a team loaded with talent.

Oh, Miami fans are thrilled with the opportunity. As they should be.

For all the debate, the Hurricanes have the right pieces at key positions. The offensive and defensive lines won't be overpowered here, and QB Carson Beck won't be overwhelmed. He knows a thing or two about playing in marquee games.

This team is excellent, debate aside. Miami is getting plenty of respect from the oddsmakers given the fact that this will be a difficult road game.

For A&M, the season ended in somewhat turbulent fashion. After nearly losing to South Carolina, the Aggies' undefeated season caved in against Texas. And given some of the inconsistencies this team showcased at times this year, there is a small sense of unpredictability heading in.

That said, I still really like Marcel Reed and his many weapons. I love this pass rush. And most of all, I love the potential that this environment can produce in a game of great magnitude.

The Pick: Texas A&M (-3.5)

Ole Miss vs. Tulane (Over 56.5)

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First, let's take inventory of the variables.

Lane Kiffin is gone, and Pete Golding has replaced him as head coach. Much of the staff, minus Kiffin, will lead Ole Miss through the playoff. Given what a big shakeup the former coach's departure was at the time, things have worked out reasonably well since.

For Tulane, Jon Sumrall is working double duty. The new head coach at Florida will finish what he started with the Green Wave. Given all he's done for the program, it's a fitting way to finish things off.

Both programs have endured major changes, although they will be largely intact. It's hard to know exactly what this will ultimately look like given the many distractions that have taken place. 

We did see these two teams three months ago, when Ole Miss won, 45-10. The oddsmakers see the scoring staying largely the same with this total, although the current 17.5-point spread implies a closer matchup.

Tulane just limited North Texas, one of the best offenses in college football, to just 21 points. It's worth noting, however, that the Green Wave forced five turnovers to do so.

That likely won't be the case here, but we're banking on both defenses struggling more than they did previously. Even without Kiffin, Ole Miss should thrive. Tulane, even with its head coach ready for his next challenge, should move the ball enough.

It won't be close, but both teams will score.

The Pick: Over 56.5

Oregon (-21) vs. James Madison

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In a weird way, I would love to be wrong.

It would bring this sport great joy and entertainment if James Madison found a way to make this game competitive. Given how this final playoff spot was filled, that would be quite a twist.

For all the talk about the format and the committee, JMU could prove this group right—and this postseason structure right—by keeping this game close.

That sounds great conceptually, although the reality seems far less likely.

Oregon, at home, will be a problem. Having dealt with injuries for the better part of the last few months, the Ducks are getting healthy at the right time, especially at wide receiver.

For as much credit as we give Dante Moore and the Oregon offense, though, the defense doesn't get nearly enough love. This unit, currently ranked No. 8 in scoring, is mighty talented and capable as well.

James Madison is by no means a slouch, having won all but one game this season. The lone loss came against the best program this team played—Louisville—and it came by 14 points.

The rest of the schedule, if we're being perfectly honest, doesn't tell us much. The fact that JMU will travel all the way to Eugene, one of the best environments in the sport, makes this seem like a near-impossible mountain to climb.

The Pick: Oregon (-21)