Breaking Down College Football Playoff 2025 Bracket Format and Latest Bowl Predictions

The College Football Playoff (CFP) committee released its penultimate rankings on Tuesday. While its latest top 25 provides a good idea of who has a realistic shot of chasing a national title this year, the field isn't set just yet.

The regular season has ended, and a few teams are likely cemented in the playoff field. However, conference championship week is here, which will settle seeding and determine those final few spots in the bracket.

How will the 2025-26 CFP bracket shake out? Let's dive into the playoff format, examine the latest rankings and make a few predictions.

Updated CFB Rankings

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1. Ohio State

2. Indiana

3. Georgia

4. Texas Tech

5. Oregon

6. Mississippi

7. Texas A&M

8. Oklahoma

9. Alabama

10. Notre Dame

11. BYU

12. Miami

13. Texas

14. Vanderbilt

15. Utah

16. USC

17. Virginia

18. Arizona

19. Michigan

20. Tulane

21. Houston

22. Georgia Tech

23. Iowa

24. North Texas

25. James Madison

Bracket Format

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The race to a national championship became a 12-team playoff for the first time last season. While the bracket format used this year will be similar, there are some differences.

The 12-team field will be determined, primarily, by the CFP selection committee. However, the five highest-ranked conference champions will earn automatic bids. This means that, while BYU and Miami would be in the field based on the current rankings alone, both may be out by next week.

Miami missed the ACC title game, which will be played between Virginia and Duke on Saturday. The ACC champion will most likely bump Miami, Notre Dame or Alabama, depending on how things unfold in the Big 12 Championship and the SEC title game.

If BYU loses to Texas Tech in the Big 12 title game, it will almost certainly be out. However Texas Tech might not fall all the way out of the bracket with a loss. There's a chance we could see BYU and Texas Tech in the CFP.

If BYU does win, we'll probably see Notre Dame or Alabama fall out. Alabama is currently ranked higher but could fall below the Irish with a loss to Georgia in the SEC Championship—and potentially out of the 12-team field with a blowout defeat.

Miami's best hope of sneaking in will probably involve a chain of events that includes lopsided losses by both Alabama and BYU. Its No. 12 spot will inevitably go to the top-ranked Group of Five (G5) champion.

Troy and James Madison are set to battle in the Sun Belt title game, while North Texas and Tulane will face off in the American Conference Championship.

Once the top five conference champions are determined, the committee will sort out the seedings. The top four seeds will receive first-round byes, which are no longer guaranteed to go to the top-ranked conference champions. Therefore, we could potentially see both participants from the Big Ten title game—Ohio State and Indiana—earn first-round byes.

Eight teams and four games will make up the opening round, and the entire tournament will be single-elimination.

Updated CFB Bowl Projections

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Ohio State QB Julian Sayin

The following is a prediction based on the current CFP rankings and the potential results of this weekend's games.

Round 1 (on-campus CFP games)

12. Tulane at 5. Oregon

11. Virginia at 6. Mississippi

10. Alabama at 7. Texas A&M

9. Notre Dame at 8. Oklahoma

Quarterfinals

Cotton Bowl

7. Texas A&M vs. 2. Indiana

Orange Bowl

5. Oregon vs. 4. Texas Tech

Rose Bowl

9. Notre Dame vs. 1. Ohio State

Sugar Bowl

6. Mississippi vs. 3. Georgia

Semifinals

Fiesta Bowl

5. Oregon vs. 1. Ohio State

Peach Bowl

3. Georgia vs. 2. Indiana

The prediction here is that Fernando Mendoza and the Indiana Hoosiers keep things relatively close against Julian Sayin in the Big Ten Championship, though the Buckeyes ultimately prevail and keep the No. 1 seed.

If the game is close enough, Indiana should be able to hang onto the No. 2 seed as a one-loss team. Georgia might be able to overtake the Hoosiers with a dominant performance in the SEC Championship. However, the prediction here is that the Crimson Tide gives the Bulldogs a fight, leaving Georgia in the No. 3 seed and Alabama in the playoff.

Predicting Texas Tech to cruise past BYU, we'll pencil in the Red Raiders for the final bye.

Oregon, Mississippi, Texas A&M and Oklahoma should stay where they are since they'll be out of action this week. Notre Dame and Alabama will likely flip if the Tide play respectably in a loss.

We'll predict Virginia to claim the ACC and for Tulane to outlast North Texas in the American. While a convincing James Madison win could give the Dukes the G5 berth and final playoff spot, beating North Texas would likely leave Tulane highest among G5 champions in the CFP rankings.