College Football Playoff Path for 2025 Bubble Teams
Considering all the wild-and-wacky scenarios that we still could see in rivalry week leading up to conference championship games, there are too many teams to write about when it comes to the College Football Playoff.
The real bubble narrows down to league championship game bids and Group of Five chaos.
That's what makes it fun, isn't it? We're going into the last week of the season, and there are several spots up for grabs. Plenty of teams in the current College Football Playoff rankings are in win-or-else scenarios. Others on the outside looking in need help.
In all cases, we could be looking at some very interesting situations, especially when it comes to league title games. Would the committee punt a team from the bracket for making the championship game then losing it? In the case of the Group of Five, those games could be the separators.
It's enough to make our heads spin, and we'll try to make sense of it all. Here are the paths forward for some of the teams on the playoff bubble.
Alabama Crimson Tide
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The 10th-ranked Alabama is firmly in the playoffs right now, but the Crimson Tide a fascinating case because of what could transpire.
It's really interesting what could happen, even if they win this weekend.
First and foremost, Alabama has to beat Auburn in the Iron Bowl. Lose, and the Tide will have three losses, including a pair to teams with losing records, which should put them at the bottom of the three-loss possibility list.
But what if Alabama makes it to the SEC championship game and loses to (hypothetically) Texas A&M for the Tide's third setback?
At that point, do you put in a three-loss team that made its conference title game over, say, a two-loss Vanderbilt team that stayed home? Could a Tide loss in the SEC championship game open the door for the Big 12 to be a two-bid league?
Win out and, of course, they're in. But the SEC title game convolutes things.
Another thing to consider is that if BYU beats Texas Tech in the Big 12 championship game, the Red Raiders likely won't drop below a Tide team that loses the SEC title game. The Cougars will get the automatic bid, and Bama could get pushed out for the second year in a row.
BYU Cougars
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BYU coach Kalani Sitake has no love lost with the committee. Last year, he famously bristled at being snubbed, but then the Cougars dealt with a late-season collapse.
This year, Sitake's bunch is possibly facing another situation where it could be left out, but he told reporters after beating Cincinnati last week he won't "waste my energy" campaigning for his team.
The only sure way for the Cougars to make the playoffs is to take care of business against UCF to end the season, clinching the bid to the Big 12 championship game. Then, if they upset Texas Tech, they'll go.
Lose to the Red Raiders, though, and getting there is going to be extremely difficult. There are several other teams that would probably get priority if the Cougars became a two-loss team, even if the second one of those losses was in the conference title game.
They should be in regardless, but barring some help (like another Alabama, Notre Dame or Miami loss), BYU is facing a gotta-win scenario the rest of the season.
Miami Hurricanes
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One of the biggest travesties of the way the CFP rankings are shaking out is that a Miami team that beat Notre Dame head-to-head could get left out while the Irish go.
Make sense? It doesn't to me, either. Because, well, scoreboard.
These two teams actually played in Week 2 with Miami winning 27-24. Since then, though, they've traversed in different directions with the Irish going undefeated and the 'Canes dropping two games.
Now, Notre Dame is firmly in as the ninth seed with only a game at Stanford remaining. Miami sits at 12th, out of the playoffs, and must play Pittsburgh.
Can the 'Canes close the gap? The only way that's assured is winning the ACC, and work must be done by several others for them to get there.
If Miami beats Pitt and several scenarios transpire that would put them in the ACC title game (Virginia and Duke lose while SMU wins; SMU, Duke and Virginia lose and N.C. State wins; SMU, Duke, UVA lose, while North Carolina and Syracuse win; or SMU and Duke lose, while UVA, N.C. State and Syracuse wins), it can end any comparisons with Notre Dame.
If not, the 'Canes will have to pull for a Cardinal win or pound Pitt and watch Notre Dame struggle so much the committee catapults them over the Irish team they've actually beaten.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Michigan Wolverines
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By now, you've probably seen the Fox Sports promo leading up to Saturday's game: "Ohio State beats everybody…except Michigan."
The Wolverines have won four straight in the series, and after last weekend's breakout passing attack against Maryland, they've got a lot of confidence again heading into The Game. Can they make it five?
Even if the Wolverines do, their work may not be done. They've lost twice this season already, so while upsetting the Buckeyes could catapult them over their rival into the Big Ten championship game against Indiana, OSU is still going to the playoffs.
The Wolverines would have to win and hope either Washington beats Oregon or Indiana loses to Purdue to play for the Big Ten title.
If Michigan does its part this weekend, would it be better not to make the Big Ten title game where another loss would assuredly knock them out? It's an interesting thought, but if the Wolverines and Oklahoma both have two losses, Michigan's loss to OU would likely spell doom (unlike the Miami/Notre Dame scenario).
Michigan is still mathematically and theoretically alive for a spot, but coach Sherrone Moore's team's playoff path is the hardest of any team.
Beating No. 1 and No. 2 is a tall, tall task.
Oregon Ducks
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With a win over USC last weekend, Oregon likely has secured its spot in the College Football Playoff no matter what.
At this point, making it to the Big Ten championship game would be a bit of icing on an already scrumptious cake as Dan Lanning's 2025 team tries to make up for unfinished business after last year's squad was ousted as the No. 1 seed.
Standing in the way of a one-loss season (with the only setback coming to No. 2 Indiana) is a year-ending tilt with Washington in a game that really could go either way. If the Ducks were blown out of the water, sure, there's a possibility they could fall out, but Oregon is sixth right now.
Beating the Trojans eliminated the biggest threat to their spot. In no world is the Big Ten going to fail to get at least three teams in, and the Ducks should go, no matter what. If they win and Michigan beats Ohio State, they'll play for the Big Ten title.
In that instance, of course, it wouldn't matter what happened between Oregon and the Hoosiers. Again, they're on firm footing for a playoff spot, but the only thing that could throw a wrench into things is a lopsided loss this weekend.
SMU Mustangs and Virginia Cavaliers
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There's just too much crazy to talk about everything that can happen in the ACC.
Technically, there are scenarios where Virginia, SMU, Miami, Duke, Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh all could make it into the conference title game, meaning any of them (except for probably the Blue Devils, who may not be one of the five highest-ranked conference winners) would make the playoff.
If UVA beats rival Virginia Tech this weekend, the Hoos are in the ACC championship game, so that's that. It's much more fun to talk about the left-for-dead Mustangs, who could somehow make their second straight appearance in the playoffs.
Much like UVA, SMU controls its own destiny once again. Coach Rhett Lashlee's team hasn't been discussed much in the national realm after losses to Baylor, TCU and Wake Forest.
Still, it's stormed back and if SMU wins at Cal on Saturday, the Mustangs will clinch a spot in the ACC title game. That's a dangerous, explosive offensive team that few would want to play.
The two best storylines in the ACC right now are Cinderella UVA winning out and making it in the playoffs and SMU crashing the party for the second straight season.
North Texas Mean Green
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The entire top of the Group of Five food chain could be considered on the bubble right now with no teams being able to afford a loss and stay in the running.
The current "mid-major" program slated to make the playoffs is the Tulane Green Wave, which stand a stellar chance of hosting the American Athletic Conference championship game with a win over Charlotte this weekend.
They'll likely host North Texas, who will make it to the game with a win over Temple this weekend, even if Navy beats Memphis—thanks to owning a 31-17 win over the Midshipmen.
North Texas is a fun team to watch, and with coach Eric Morris heading to Oklahoma State after the season, it's going to be interesting to see how the 10-1 Mean Green respond. They can score with anybody, and they could provide some fireworks in an AAC title game.
A Tulane-North Texas title game likely would be a winner-take-all playoff prize.
At this point, it's difficult to envision a one-loss James Madison team doing enough to somehow catapult the Green Wave or the Mean Green in the rankings.
Vanderbilt Commodores
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For such a huge game this weekend, it's hard to imagine there could be absolutely nothing at stake for Vanderbilt besides instate bragging rights against hated Tennessee.
If the Commodores go into Neyland Stadium and beat the Vols handily, though, would the College Football Playoff committee really keep a 10-2 SEC team out of the final 12? That's hard to stomach.
First, Vanderbilt has to go into Knoxville as underdogs and win. But if it does, it's still likely to need help from other teams. The Commodores are coolly ranked at No. 14 right now, but that means they're a long shot for an at-large bid.
Coach Clark Lea's team has a tough game at hand this weekend, but they not only need to win but also watch closely several other games.
Some things that would help VU's cause would be Oklahoma getting upset by LSU to give the Sooners a third loss, Alabama getting beat by narrow underdog Auburn in the Iron Bowl, or Miami getting upset by a more-than-capable Pittsburgh team.
Don't overlook Notre Dame's road trip to a Stanford team that has wins over Florida State and Cal, either. Sure, the Irish are a much better team, but the Cardinal aren't awful.
Vanderbilt still needs an awful lot of help, but it's not out of the realm of possibility.
Utah Utes and Arizona State Sun Devils
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We're putting these two Big 12 foes together because it shows the true-and-total shenanigans that could go on.
First things first: If Texas Tech and BYU win, the conference title game is set. End of story. No questions asked.
But what if they don't? Then it gets bananas.
The Utes are No. 13, and they are one of the first two teams out right now. To make the playoffs, though, they need help. They need a Big 12 championship game berth. Utah will reach the Big 12 title game if it beats Kansas and both BYU and Arizona State win and Texas Tech loses.
Believe it or not, there's still a path for a three-loss Sun Devils team, too, in a tiebreaker scenario. They need to beat Arizona, first and foremost. Then, they can earn a spot in the Big 12 title game with a BYU loss, or a win and losses by both Texas Tech and Utah.
How wild would it be for a team that is nowhere near the bubble conversation, made it last year and lost its starting quarterback for the season, to come from nowhere and sneak in with a Big 12 championship game win?
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
