Updated Bowl Predictions After 2025 Week 11 CFP Rankings, Bracket Projections
On Tuesday, the he College Football Playoff (CFP) selection committee released its first official rankings of the 2025 season. While the initial 25-team field is intriguing, not every team on the list has a realistic shot at making this year's playoff.
The Texas Longhorns, for example, would be in the 12-team field if the season ended today. However, upcoming games against No. 5 Georgia and No. 3 Texas A&M could leave Arch Manning and Co. on the outside looking in.
This doesn't mean that some of the second-tier teams and playoff hopefuls won't find their way on the national stage in the coming weeks. Bowl season is nearly upon us and will serve as an exhibition for some of the top talent in the country.
CFP Rankings, Top 25
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1. Ohio State
2. Indiana
3. Texas A&M
4. Alabama
5. Georgia
6. Mississippi
7. BYU
8. Texas Tach
9. Oregon
10. Notre Dame
11. Texas
12. Oklahoma
13. Utah
14. Virginia
15. Louisville
16. Vanderbilt
17. Georgia Tech
18. Miami
19. USC
20. Iowa
21. Michigan
22. Missouri
23. Washington
24. Pittsburgh
25. Tennessee
CFP Bracket Projections
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First-Round Byes
1. Ohio State
2. Texas A&M
3. Indiana
4. Alabama
Round 1
12. Memphis at No. 5 Georgia
11. Virginia at 6. Oregon
10. Notre Dame at 7. Mississippi
9. Texas Tech at 8. BYU
Quarterfinals
5. Georgia vs. 4. Alabama
6. Oregon vs. 3. Indiana
8. BYU vs. 2. Texas A&M
10. Notre Dame vs. 1. Ohio State
Semifinals
4. Alabama vs. 1. Ohio State
3. Indiana vs. 2. Texas A&M
CFP Bowl Information
While the opening round of the College Football Playoff will be played on-campus, the quarterfinal, semifinal and final rounds will involve neutral-site bowl games.
The quarterfinal round, which will take place on December 31 and January 1, will include the Cotton Bowl (AT&T Stadium), Orange Bowl (Hard Rock Stadium), Rose Bowl (Rose Bowl Stadium) and Sugar Bowl (Caesars Superdome).
The semifinal round will include the Fiesta Bowl at State Farm Stadium on January 8 and the Peach Bowl at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on January 9. The 2026 College Football National Championship is scheduled for 19 at 9:30 p.m. ET and will be played at Hard Rock Stadium.
Two opening-round games will be broadcast on ABC, ESPN and the ESPN app, while the other two will be broadcast on TNT, TruTV and HBO Max. All quarterfinal and semifinal bowl games, along with the championship game, will be broadcast on ESPN and the ESPN app.
Bowl Season Preview
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Plenty will change between now and the end of the regular season, so the initial CFP rankings must be taken with a grain of salt. BYU and Texas Tech are both currently listed as top-10 teams. However, they're set to play on Saturday, and the loser could be in danger of sliding out of the playoff race.
As previously mentioned, Texas has a tough path to getting into the CFP. Missouri, ranked 22nd by the CFP committee and 19th in the AP poll, would have to upset No. 3 Texas A&M this weekend to even have a shot.
The November 15 matchup between No. 11 Oklahoma and No. 4 Alabama looms as another pivotal matchup.
Conference title games may not matter as much this year, in terms of the CFP race, anyway. The committee agreed to introduce straight seeding to this year's bracket, which means that the four first-round byes will no longer go to the four highest-seeded conference champions.
The five top-seeded conference champs will still earn automatic bids into the playoff. However, we could easily see a team lose the SEC Championship Game and still earn a first-round bye.
While the College Football Playoff will begin on December 19, the L.A. Bowl is set to kick off bowl season on December 13. The complete bowl schedule can be found here.
Here are some early predictions for this year's top non-CFB bowl games:
Sun Bowl: SMU vs. Arizona
Citrus Bowl: Michigan vs. Texas
Las Vegas Bowl: Nebraska vs. Washington
Armed Forces Bowl: Houston vs. Army
Liberty Bowl: Cincinnati vs. Missouri
Duke's Mayo Bowl: N.C. State vs. Central Florida
Holiday Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. Arizona State
