Expert College Football Betting Locks for BYU vs. TTU and Week 11's Biggest Games
If nothing else, last week showed us that gambling on college football isn't boring.
In one game, we saw Gunner Stockton, Georgia's starting quarterback, take a knee on the one-yard line with time running out, securing a win for the Bulldogs and a cover for the Gators as the spread hovered around a touchdown.
Almost simultaneously, Cal QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele unleashed a wayward throw that resulted in a pick-six with his team down three and the clock bleeding out. Rather than simply take a knee, Virginia's Kam Robinson returned it for a score to put a cherry on top of a victory sundae. The spread sat at a cool four-and-a-half points.
One resulted in a win. One resulted in a loss. If nothing else, Week 10 was a masterclass in the joy and agony of doing what we love.
Week 11 features a massive game in the Big 12, a potentially fascinating Big Ten matchup with huge upset potential and more. Let's sink our teeth into this slate, in search of a monster week.
Last Week's Record: 4-4
Year to Date: 46-48-1
Texas Tech (-10) vs. BYU
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When the point spread first dropped, it seemed somewhat jarring. But as time progressed throughout the week, it felt more and more appropriate.
All year, the oddsmakers have shown plenty of respect for Texas Tech. The Red Raiders were an underdog once, and they clobbered Utah on the road when they were.
Injuries have been a story for Texas Tech at key positions, although it hasn't mattered to this point. The return of QB Behren Morton, who missed multiple games, certainly helps. Although he is just one of the many cogs on the most talented roster in the conference.
BYU, meanwhile, has done everything right. In fact, the Cougars have been nearly perfect across two seasons, and they are one of four unbeaten team still remaining. Freshman QB Bear Bachmeier has been outstanding, and the rest of the roster has done its part.
So, why is the spread double digits?
Homefield, for starters. Texas Tech is a perfect 5-0 against the spread when playing at home, and this promises to be one of the best settings of the season. For as big as this number is, it won't matter.
The Pick: Texas Tech (-10)
Iowa (+6.5) vs. Oregon
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The average gambler will see this game, a fringe top five team going up against an unranked opponent with a reputation of offensive ineptitude, and they will pounce on the favorite.
Yes, the public will love Oregon at this number. The Ducks will likely be backed in large amounts this week as they head to Iowa City to take on the Hawkeyes. However, this feels like a potential issue for the road team on a variety of fronts.
For starters, Iowa is the only team to push Indiana to the brink or even come close to date. The Hawkeyes nearly upset the Hoosiers outright, and they were likely one good offensive drive away from doing so.
For Oregon, which lost at home by double digits to the same Indiana team, what win excites you? Penn State? Northwestern? Oklahoma State?
While the talent is in place in Eugene, it's fair to question the present resume. And with a long road trip, cold temperatures and maybe even some rain (or even snow!) expected, this feels like a game that could be perfectly Iowa.
It will be close, it will likely be somewhat ugly, and Iowa will push for an outright win.
The Pick: Iowa (+6.5)
Wake Forest (+6.5) at Virginia
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No, this isn't revenge.
Yes, Virginia cost us money last week.
It's never personal, it's only business.
For as bad as business was for Wake Forest last weekend, the spread against a team currently flirting with the College Football Playoff is remarkably small. The fact that this is a road game only makes this number that much more intriguing.
It's been a weird year for the Demon Deacons. A win over SMU and a near win over Georgia Tech show this team is plenty capable in the ACC. But losses like last week don't exactly help this case.
Virginia has managed to keep the momentum rolling, although it hasn't exactly been easy. The Cavaliers last four wins have come by a combined 16 points, and that includes the "unfortunate" pick six from a week ago.
In short, they don't really blow anyone out. And Wake Forest, while unimpressive a week ago, has shown it can hang with some of the best teams in the conference.
On Saturday night, it'll happen again. Wake hangs tough in a close loss.
The Pick: Wake Forest (+6.5)
Tulane (+4.5) at Memphis
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Yes, there is football played outside power conferences. And yes, these football games can lead to enormously important outcomes. Case and point, Memphis taking on Tulane in a game you absolutely need to watch.
Memphis, fresh off its bracket placement in the first College Football Playoff Rankings, will look to validate said placement against a dangerous team. The Tigers are 8-1, with the lone defeat coming against UAB (somehow).
Tulane is 6-2, coming off an ugly midweek loss at UTSA. The other loss came against Ole Miss, and there's no shame in that. A win here could drastically reshape both team's seasons and immediately throw the Green Wave in the playoff picture.
As the week has progressed, the spread vs. Tulane has shrunk. For as bad as last week was, it's not necessarily showing up in the spread. We liked Tulane before the line dipped. We still like the Green Wave now, even on the road after a tough week.
Don't be shocked if a Group of Five shakeup transpires.
The Pick: Tulane (+4.5)
Alabama vs. LSU (Over 49.5)
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While totals haven't been featured much in this year's picks, we're making an exception for a game that still holds a special place in our hearts regardless of the state of both teams.
For Alabama, this is a chance to make a statement. Coming off a close call against South Carolina, the Tide are in a position to thrive, taking on a team with an interim coach.
For LSU, now what? The defense, which showed signs of life early on, has fallen apart in recent weeks. The offense, which has both talent and speed, hasn't put it together this year.
Now, interim head coach Frank Wilson will get his crack. What that means, well, we're about to find out. Although it's probably not going to be boring.
Alabama's resurgence has been one of the biggest stories of the college football season, although the defense has allowed 20 points or more in four of the last five games. Granted, this schedule has been no picnic.
On Saturday night, the Alabama offense will score plenty. The LSU offense will do enough.
The Pick: Over 49.5
Other Games on the Card
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Colorado State (+5.5) vs. UNLV
One team is 6-2. The other is 2-6. Given the record, it feels like this spread should be considerably higher, no? Colorado State thinks so, and the Rams find a way to keep this matchup tight.
South Florida (-13.5) vs. UTSA
We love you, UTSA. You were good to us last week against Tulane. The oddsmakers, however, clearly believe this game will go a lot differently than that one did. We're putting out faith in them here.
UCF (+1.5) vs. Houston
What a weird year it's been for Houston, which has looked the part of a Top 25 team for much of the year. Then last week happened, and the Cougars lost to West Virginia. UCF continues the trend.
West Virginia (-5.5) vs. Colorado
Maybe this is too easy. Maybe I'm falling into a trap I so regularly try to avoid. Maybe, just maybe, Colorado will somehow respond. Given what we have seen in recent weeks, however, I'll pay to see it.
