It's Time for the Detroit Tigers to Sell and Rebuild

The 2015 season is a lost cause for the Detroit Tigers. With only a week and a half until the July 31 trade deadline, the Tigers must swallow some pride and become sellers.

The four-time reigning American League Central Division champions currently own a mediocre 46-46 record. Monday’s win over Seattle got them back to .500 after slipping below that mark for the first time (post All-Star break) since 2010—the last time they missed the postseason.

Detroit fans will be swallowing a bitter pill if selling is the chosen path. After an 11-2 start to the season, many, including this writer, had them penciled in for another trip to October. But going 35-44 since then shows they are simply not playoff material.

I am not the only one in the sell camp. Matthew B. Mowery of the Oakland Press agrees. He recently compared the beleaguered Tigers team to bananas with brown spots who should “sell, before the bananas go bad.”

The Tigers now sit nine-and-a-half games adrift of Kansas City in the Central. With this horse having already bolted, the best they can hope for is a wild-card spot. At four games back, they are seemingly still in the race with 70 games still remaining.

So, why sell and not buy?

Three reasons:

1)    Selling up to six free agents-in-waiting, and potentially others, will net significant gains in return.

2)    Detroit’s farm system has been pillaged far too much in recent times and needs some nurturing.

3)    Adding a few talented players, such as Johnny Cueto and/or Aroldis Chapman, wouldn’t be enough to help them contend, anyway. 

The circumstances simply shout sell. The time is now for this organisation to look beyond the present and toward the future. And I mean right now.

The Tigers have a 10-day window to do business, and they possess arguably the biggest fish (potentially) in the trade pond.

There is no confirmation that Detroit is, in fact, a seller. But if it is, nobody would be more attractive to teams needing a pitcher than David Price.

The 29-year-old is a free agent at season’s end and has been outstanding this year with Detroit—9-3, 2.32 ERA and 127 K’s. His 3.5 WAR ranks eighth among all major league pitchers.

The Dodgers, Cardinals and Yankees all spring to mind as potentially interested parties. The latter two both fit the criteria of needing an ace to lead their rotation. Los Angeles always possesses the wealth and desire to acquire marquee players, and Jon Heyman of CBS Sports recently reported that it is gunning for a top arm in the trade market.

Price would only be a part-season rental for his would-be team. But that doesn’t mean he wouldn’t fetch a pretty player or two in return.

Remember that seven years ago, CC Sabathia—who was in his contract year with Cleveland—yielded four prospects from Milwaukee, including Michael Brantley, when the Indians decided to trade him.

The Dodgers are particularly endowed with talented youngsters who could entice Detroit into a deal. According to Baseball America, Los Angeles owns four of the game’s top 20 prospects, including lefty pitcher Julio Arias and infielder Corey Seager.

It doesn’t begin and end with Price for Detroit. Here is a list of the others whose contracts end after this campaign.

While not having as much pull as Price, both Cespedes and Soria would have definite appeal to contending teams. Speedster Davis could also offer clubs a potent pinch-running threat at the very least.

Of course, trading these players would not be without its consequences. The Tigers could face an indifferent final two months of the regular season with little to play for. A major decline in crowd figures would be another negative corollary.

However, it’s better than the alternative. Detroit’s farm system is regularly listed among the worst in baseball, and it desperately needs an influx of new talent. A deeper prospect pool would provide the franchise with a much stronger base for the future. More neglect would result in worse pain down the track.

FanGraphs currently gives the Tigers only a 27.8 percent chance of making the playoffs. Sure, putting on a buyers cap and acquiring a big name or two may raise this a notch. But buying now is not going to bring enough talent to transform this team. An inconsistent offense and a pitching staff with a collective 4.33 ERA—26th in the majors—can only be helped so much.

The other option is standing pat, i.e., not buying or selling. That would be wasteful considering Detroit’s circumstances and what Price, etc., could net in trades.

This is a seismic moment in time for the Tigers franchise. Selling is not the easy call, but it is the right call. It’s time for owner Mike Ilitch to cash in his chips.

All stats in this article are courtesy of FanGraphs

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