Expert CFB Betting Locks for Texas vs. Vanderbilt and Week 10's Biggest Games
By the time Halloween arrives, one can't help but take inventory on exactly where we are on the football calendar.
The first College Football Playoff ranking will arrive next Tuesday. As such, teams are deep into their schedules, with the end of the regular season suddenly in sight.
Have no fear—not yet, at least. We still have plenty of games to bet on and an abundance of weirdness to unearth. But be sure to enjoy every single moment, because they won't last forever.
Speaking of not lasting forever, we bet LSU last week. Now, Brian Kelly is no longer the team's football coach. If you're wondering how last week went, you can start there. Losing the Michigan-Michigan State under in somewhat horrific fashion didn't help, either.
After a month without losing, we've done plenty of it of late. That changes this week, when we can get the train back on the tracks.
Last Week's Record: 3-6
Year to Date: 42-44-1
Texas (-2.5) vs. Vanderbilt
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At the time of writing, it remains unclear if Arch Manning will play for Texas this week. The fact that it really doesn't matter—and Vegas doesn't seem to care based on the spread—speaks to the general state of the Longhorns.
It would be wrong of us, however, to not give Manning some credit for last week. By no means was he perfect, but he scored four touchdowns and threw for 346 yards before leaving the game with a concussion.
Backup Matthew Caldwell came in and threw one pass. That pass was a touchdown that won the game for the Longhorns in overtime against Mississippi State.
Here's the reality. Regardless of who plays against Vanderbilt, they will do so at home. And while I love this Vandy team, that offense didn't exactly dazzle last week against Missouri. For what it's worth, this vaunted Texas defense wasn't exactly stellar.
With a total in the low to mid-40s, this looks like an ugly football game that Texas could win, regardless of who is under center.
The Pick: Texas (-2.5)
Florida (+7.5) vs. Georgia
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It feels like it's been an eternity since Florida fired Billy Napier. The sport moves quickly these days.
After barely beating Mississippi State, the Gators made a coaching change. Last weekend, they enjoyed a bye. Now, 54-year-old Billy Gonzales, having been hired as a coach at Florida on three separate occasions, will get the call.
What happens next, of course, can vary greatly. We've seen UCLA, UAB, Arkansas and others respond in a major way with a new voice the first time out. That doesn't mean the Gators will follow suit, but we know the talent is there.
Which brings us to Georgia, currently the nation's No. 5-ranked team. Despite the ranking, the Bulldogs are vulnerable. We've seen it in essentially every conference game. To their credit, they have found a way to win.
Defensively, Florida has the players to slow down the UGA offense. And the Georgia defense, which currently ranks No. 30 in scoring, hasn't dazzled.
For Florida, this game will likely look like a microcosm of the season. The Gators will fall once again, but they will put up a tremendous fight, a.k.a. cover, in doing so.
The Pick: Florida (+7.5)
Cal (+4.5) vs. Virginia
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As far as finishes go in Week 9, Cal and Virginia finished on opposite ends of the spectrum.
The Bears came up short against Virginia Tech in a roller-coaster game, ultimately losing in double overtime. Virginia, meanwhile, stopped North Carolina on the one-foot line on a two-point try in overtime to move to 7-1.
The Cavaliers' last four games have been decided by one score or less, and there's no reason to believe that will change here. Throw in a cross-country flight and an odd early-ish start for a West Coast game, and the recipe is in place for a mild upset.
If you have not yet seen Cal freshman Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele play, now would be a good time. The true freshman QB has shown some tremendous flashes this season, and his presence gives Cal a chance.
Despite the array of close calls for Virginia, the record and the ranking—currently No. 15—are likely to garner plenty of public backing. When this happens, it's best to take the opposite approach.
The Pick: Cal (+4.5)
NC State (+5.5) vs. Georgia Tech
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Betting against Georgia Tech this year has not gone well.
It's not personal, and it never is. We look at spreads, and we make decisions off of those spreads. For whatever reason, the Yellow Jackets have found themselves in some fascinating spots. When we have bet against them, well, you know the drill.
This week, the nation's No. 8-ranked team is a small favorite against a .500 team on the road.
Not only that, but NC State has also lost four of the past five games. The one win came over Campbell. The Fighting Camels (great name) did not put up much of a fight.
Three of those five games did come on the road, and one was at Notre Dame. Oh, and NC State nearly won against Virginia Tech.
No matter how you try to justify it, though, the public is going to be all over Georgia Tech this week. And you know what? The public could be right.
We have seen the Yellow Jackets struggle on the road, nearly falling to Wake Forest earlier in the season. Each close game, Georgia Tech has found a way.
That'll be the case once again, but it won't come easy. NC State pushes for an upset.
The Pick: NC State (+5.5)
Iowa State (-7) vs. Arizona State
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For a while last week, Iowa State was on a roll.
The Cyclones were ahead by double digits against BYU, and things were trending nicely. A slew of miscues, headlined by a backbreaking pick six, ultimately derailed all momentum. The Cougars won, and we lost money.
This week, both teams are limping some mentally and physically. Arizona State will be without Sam Leavitt, the team's best player and emotional leader. Given what he means for this team in so many respects, he's a difficult piece to replace.
Backup Jeff Sims will try, and he has plenty of experience. But it's going to look and feel different, especially playing on the road in a difficult environment.
When Leavitt missed the team's road game at Utah, the Sun Devils lost by 32 points. While this outcome won't be that bad, it's a long road trip and a big ask for everyone involved. From a motivation standpoint, one can't help but wonder what ASU has left after suffering its third loss of the year last week.
Iowa State isn't perfect, and it doesn't have to be.
The Pick: Iowa State (-7)
Other Games on the Card
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UTSA (+5.5) vs. Tulane
For as much momentum as Tulane has, this Thursday night football game is not one to sleep on. UTSA has only played three home games this season, and the fourth one could be far more successful.
Arkansas (-4.5) vs. Mississippi State
Neither team won last week, although Mississippi State had its heart broken against Texas. Going up against a potent Arkansas offense on the road a week later seems less than ideal.
Colorado (+4.5) vs. Arizona
Oh, Colorado was bad last week. In fact, "bad" doesn't really do a sufficient job covering it. Playing at home against a more suitable opponent, however, should help Deion Sanders and his team immensely.
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