Expert CFB Betting Locks for Kansas State vs. Iowa State and Week 0's Biggest Games

At last, we have football.

After seven long months, college football will return on Saturday in the form of Week 0. No transfer portal or NIL. No playoff expansion rumors. Just pure, magnificent football.

Sure, it's an abbreviated slate. But who wants to eat a ribeye before having a shrimp cocktail first?

What the Week 0 slate lacks in options, it makes up for in marquee events. Kansas State and Iowa State will kick things off in a Big 12 matchup with enormous stakes. Elsewhere, real football games with real point spreads.

Each week, we'll pick college football games against the spread, just like we have for many years. We'll track these Locks of the Week each week, grade our performance and then update our season tally.

Every win, every loss and every push will be included. Regardless of how the picks do, every outcome will be accounted for—from Week 0 to the national championship game.

So, let's get things started. Spoiler: Things are pretty chalky.

Kansas State (-3) vs. Iowa State

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As far as Week 0 games go, they don't get much better than this.

Two ranked teams—and two conference championship hopefuls—will meet in Ireland to kick things off in style. The point spread speaks to the general unknown and chaos surrounding the Big 12's best teams for the second year in a row.

Last year, Iowa State won this matchup at home. This year, it will attempt to do so with quarterback Rocco Becht still on the roster, although many key pieces on the offense will have to be replaced.

For Kansas State, quarterback Avery Johnson is also back. The biggest questions in both this game and beyond is whether he can take that next, next step and also limit the turnovers.

Beyond that, K-State feels like it has the more complete roster—and more experience—entering Week 0. And a defense that barely finished inside the top 50 this year has a chance to shoot up the rankings in 2025.

It won't be a blowout, but the Wildcats find a way to win (and cover).

The Pick: Kansas State (-3)

Kansas (-12.5) vs. Fresno State

Over the past five years, both of these teams have had their moments.

Fresno State won 10 games in 2023 and followed that up with a nine-win season in 2022. Kansas, of course, went from football doormat to one of the truly exceptional stories in 2023.

Last year was a different story for the Jayhawks, though. They started off slow, lost essentially every close game they possibly could and finished the year by beating three ranked teams in consecutive weeks.

That program is the one I expect to see more of in 2025, and it starts at quarterback with Jalon Daniels. While injuries have had their say, he is still one of the nation's most explosive players when his body is right.

For Fresno State, a team that has undergone tremendous change, there are simply too many pieces to keep up. Offensively, an abundance of new faces will make this early road trip a challenge for the Bulldogs.

Kansas gets things moving in the right direction quickly.

The Pick: Kansas (-12.5)

Western Kentucky (-10) vs. Sam Houston

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Perhaps no game in Week 0 highlights the current state of college football more than this one.

Want change? This matchup has plenty. The rosters have essentially been remade, Sam Houston has a new head coach, and the game is ripe with major questions.

And we love it.

That new head coach, Phil Longo, knows plenty about coaching offense. Doing it with this program out of the gate seems like a lot to ask, though, especially with so many new pieces.

Western Kentucky, which also loses a ton, will welcome quarterback Maverick McIvor. He was a monster at Abilene Christian, throwing for more than 8,000 yards, and it wouldn't be a shock to see him pick up where he left off.

The total, which sits just over 60 points, speaks to the game we are likely to get. While the over is tempting, we’ll start smart and slow and just choose a side. (Just kidding. We're playing that, too.)

The Pick: Western Kentucky (-10)

Stanford vs. Hawai’i (Over 51.5)

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Ah, our first over of the year. Being honest, it feels wonderful. The fact that this game will be played at a normal night-time hour rather than deep into the night is, frankly, a tragedy.

Still, starting off the season with a Hawai’i home game feels about right. The fact that this program is favored over a Power Four program—albeit one going through another transformation—speaks to the trajectory of both programs.

Let's give Timmy Chang credit. The former Rainbow Warrior great has Hawai'i in the best position it has been in some time. The team still only won five games in 2024, although the progress was significant.

While the glimpses were small, Micah Alejado showed flashes for Hawai'i toward the end of the year. If that continues, look out.

For Stanford, it will look to move forward without its best player from a season ago. Defensive lineman David Bailey is off to Texas Tech, and it's hard to overstate what a loss that is.

Offensively, it will be up to quarterback Ben Gulbranson to move the ball. The former Oregon State QB has experience, and that could be good enough against a defense that has struggled.

 So, let's plan for points. Lots of them.

The Pick: Over 51.5

UNLV vs. Idaho State: (Under 64.5)

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If you have questions about Idaho State, let us provide some comfort: You are not alone. To help catch us up to speed, here's a little crash course.

The Bengals won five games last year. Their highest-profile matchup came against Oregon State, and Idaho State lost 38-15 (not awful). In the last two games of the season, the Bengals allowed 117 combined points (pretty awful).

On the other sideline, the Dan Mullen era will officially begin at UNLV. And we assume the starting QB will be Alex Orji, formerly of Michigan, although Virginia transfer Anthony Colandrea could see time.

It’s Week 0, things are weird.

While Mullen was a brilliant hire, this could take some time. And if Orji is indeed his starter, we are likely to see him work more as a runner—as was the case at Michigan—which means the clock will be moving.

Regardless, this just feels like too many points. Idaho State will struggle against a team that has taken massive leaps, and UNLV is unlikely to unleash offense right out of the gate.

The Pick: Under 64.5