What if Nikola Jokić Actually Retired From the NBA in 2022?
It's been a banner offseason for the "Nikola Jokić doesn't care about basketball" takes.
Mere days after Jokić's emotional reaction to one of his horse's recent wins drew comparisons to his immediate (and seemingly more subdued) celebration of the 2023 Finals, former teammate DeMarcus Cousins took the notion even further.
Is basketball really his third or fourth favorite thing to do? Maybe. When he drops a crazy stat line in an individual game, does he really not want to even be there? Perhaps, at least on occasion.
But the part of Cousins' quote that's really hard to believe is that Jokić would've seriously considered retiring prior to signing his contract extension with the Denver Nuggets in 2022.
There's no reason to doubt what Cousins is saying, but when the result would've been walking away from hundreds of millions of dollars in his prime, you have to assume there's at least a chance Jokić was joking or making an offhand comment.
But the three-time MVP does indeed have passions outside the game of basketball. You see it in videos when he's reacting to his horses' accomplishments. He's talked publicly about how important his family is. His brothers, Strahinja and Nemanja, have been fixtures to and throughout his career.
So, for the sake of some August fun, let's say Jokić was completely serious when he hinted at retirement to his old backup. And let's say he walked away in the summer of 2022, right before signing the lucrative deal that's set to pay him $55.2 million this season, $59 million in 2026-27 and $62.8 million the season after that (assuming he picks up the player option).
It would've been one of the most shocking moves we've seen in professional sports. And it would've completely altered the course of NBA history.
Multiple MVPs May Have Gone Elsewhere
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Jokić may have won two of his three MVPs prior to the 2022 offseason, but his not being in the next three races could've changed the outcome of each.
It may not be as simple as saying Joel Embiid and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander hang onto theirs, while the second-place finisher in 2024 (SGA) would have another.
Not having Jokić in the NBA would've completely changed the complexion of the league. Playing in the Western Conference would be slightly easier. Some voters who perhaps value triple-doubles more than others may have thrown their support to Luka Dončić in 2024 (he finished third). In 2023, enough of the Jokić votes going to Giannis Antetokounmpo could've given him his third MVP. That would obviously put him in slightly different conversations about the all-time ladder.
To say Jokić has been a fixture of MVP debates over the last half-decade would be an understatement. He's finished no worse than second in each of the previous five seasons.
Simply removing that from 2023, 2024 and 2025 would've dramatically altered the outcome of those votes.
Nuggets Would've Rebuilt
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Over the course of Jokić's seven seasons immediately preceding the 2022 offseason, Denver was plus-5.5 points per 100 possessions with the big man on the floor and minus-4.5 when he was off.
(That 9.0-point swing balloons to 20.2 over the last three seasons, but that number's not relevant for this conversation).
He won the MVP award in both 2021 and 2022. With those awards and impact numbers leading up to a surprise retirement, Denver almost certainly would've been forced to start over.
The Nuggets roster at the time was nowhere near ready to contend without him. It probably wouldn't have even pushed for a playoff berth in the perennially loaded West.
That means players like Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon could be elsewhere. Michael Porter Jr. almost certainly would've been traded sooner. And Denver likely would've been a lottery fixture in each of the last three summers.
LeBron James Might Have a 5th Title, and Luka Dončić Might Still Be in Dallas
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When you think about the teams that have been most affected by Jokić's peak, the Los Angeles Lakers immediately come to mind.
LeBron James faced the Nuggets in both the 2023 and 2024 playoffs, and he went 1-8 in those games. And the series in 2023 was the conference finals.
Now, just like the discussion on the MVPs slide, removing the Nuggets from the equation doesn't necessarily mean L.A. still would've made it that far. Nor does it mean the Lakers would've won that series and an eventual Finals against the Miami Heat.
But it certainly would've increased the likelihood.
And if LeBron had won the 2023 Finals, his fifth overall and second with Anthony Davis, a couple major talking points might be different right now.
First of all, the "LeBron vs. Michael Jordan" debate that has hovered over much of LeBron's career would be even trickier for the MJ acolytes (like myself). Five titles in this era (including two in the parity-rich 2020s) would be a heck of an accomplishment. That with the longevity side of the argument that LeBron already dominates would give him a near-ironclad GOAT case.
A 2023 championship with AD absolutely would've decreased the likelihood of the league-shaking Luka trade we just saw in February too. That deal clearly favored the Lakers (to an almost comical degree). Had it presented itself a year and a half after another Davis title, L.A. still might've had to take it, but it at least would've been a harder sell.
Jokić Wouldn't Be Considered Top 20
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Bleacher Report updated its list of the top 100 players of all time this summer, and Jokić came in at No. 17 (with one voter ranking him as high as 12th).
Without his 2023 championship and Finals MVP, another MVP, two second-place MVP finishes and his triple-double average from the 2024-25 campaign, there's just no way he'd be ranked that high.
Yeah, he might get some kind of subconscious boost from people who participate in exercises like this and are prone to dwell on "what ifs," but that wouldn't be enough to push him above the likes of Dirk Nowitzki, David Robinson, Julius Erving, Moses Malone and some of the other legends currently ranked right behind him.
We'd Have a Different 2023 Champion
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The most obvious and meaningful impact of Jokić not being around in 2023 would be a different champion in 2023.
That postseason, he averaged an otherworldly 30.0 points, 13.5 rebounds, 9.5 assists, 1.1 steals and 1.0 blocks. In the Finals alone, he put up 30.2, 14.0 and 7.0.
It was one of the best individual playoff runs the league has ever seen. It led the Nuggets to their first NBA title. It forced much of the rest of the NBA to reemphasize big men in their team-building philosophies.
And if Jokić just simply wasn't around in 2023, the entire complexion of the league would be different today.
