8 MLB Trade Predictions Ahead of 2025 Deadline
The MLB trade deadline is now less than 10 days away, so it should only be a matter of time before rumors start turning into action.
In the meantime, who's up for some predictions?
There are eight predictions for the deadline—July 31 at 6 p.m. ET, by the way—ahead, and they contain multitudes. Some concern specific players and others concern specific teams, and they cover both deals that will and won't be made.
These aren't all predictions of the "bold" variety, but they are presented in ascending order of boldness. Just as a taste: What if Rafael Devers doesn't prove to be the last big-name player to depart the American League East in a shocking trade?
If that idea has you hooked, you'd better keep reading.
Nothing Will Keep Eugenio Suárez and the Mariners from a Reunion
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Let's start with a nice, easy layup: Eugenio Suárez is totally going to be a Seattle Mariner again, folks.
He's definitely going somewhere in the coming days, and not just because the Arizona Diamondbacks are going nowhere while they're in fourth place in the National League West. He's ridiculously hot right now, to a point where he has risen to No. 1 on ESPN's trade deadline big board.
The 34-year-old leads the National League with 36 home runs and 86 runs batted in, and he's hit 56 homers in total since last year's All-Star Game. Even with only two months standing between him and free agency, he's a hugely valuable trade chip.
The Mariners are interested in Suárez, according to ESPN's Buster Olney, and there's a lot more than just familiarity at play there. They have gotten only five home runs from third base this season, so scoring an upgrade the likes of Suárez would only further solidify them as a contender for their first-ever World Series appearance.
Assuming Seattle is indeed that desperate for Suárez, there would be little stopping them from bringing him back to the Pacific Northwest. B/R's Joel Reuter has the Mariners' farm system ranked at No. 1 in MLB, and Logan Evans, Jurrangelo Cijntje and Ryan Sloan are pitchers Arizona could covet in a swap.
The Yankees Will Be Biggest Losers of the Deadline
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If the Mariners do end up as the winners of the Suárez sweepstakes, well, that would just plain be bad news for the New York Yankees.
They're also interested in him, per the aforementioned report from Olney. And he is certainly needed in their lineup, which doesn't have a viable regular at third base now Jazz Chisholm Jr. back at second.
Here's the thing, though: Yankees general manager Brian Cashman reportedly also wants a starting pitcher and at least two relief pitchers, which means he's going to have to pick his battles.
And then there's the other thing: It won't be easy for Cashman to win any of these battles given what he has to barter with.
The Yankees aren't flush with expendable talent at the major league level, and their farm system is one of the five worst in the league. Spencer Jones has surely upped his value with his recent heater, but he remains a borderline top-100 type on account of his huge strikeout rate (i.e., 31.7 percent) at Triple-A.
Meanwhile, the Yankees are also firmly in "Cohen tax" territory with an estimated luxury-tax payroll of $308 million. Every additional dollar they add will further inflate a tax bill that is already set to cost them $50 million.
All this feels like a setup for a situation where the Yankees overpromise (at least implicitly, if not explicitly) and then underdeliver. Such an outcome probably wouldn't ease tensions amid the club's ongoing slide down the standings.
The Most Shocking Non-Trade Will Be Sandy Alcantara
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As to prospective sellers at the deadline, the odds of the Miami Marlins trading Sandy Alcantara this summer seemed close to 100 percent at one point.
Heck, it was a small miracle that the 2022 NL Cy Young Award winner even broke camp with the team. Rumors were swirling around him all spring, and he helped fan the flames by posting a perfect 0.00 ERA in five Grapefruit League outings.
Cut to now, though, and the odds of Miami dealing the 29-year-old might not even be 50/50.
This is his first year back from Tommy John surgery, and there have certainly been moments when he's teased a return to form. But it just hasn't happened, as his 7.14 ERA is easily the worst of any starter who has pitched at least 90 innings.
Alcantara's stuff still rates well, for whatever that's worth. But next to results this bad, that only does so much to redeem his trade value. It's gone from sky-high to dirt-cheap, which should raise the question of why the Marlins would move him now when they have him signed through 2026 with an option for 2027.
Plus, things are trending up in Miami. They have won 16 of their last 24 games, which has them in line to finish higher than fourth in the NL East for the first time in a full season since 2017. It doesn't mean they're contending now, but it should have them wondering if they could make the leap next year.
No Team Will Let Buyers Down More Than the Twins
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If the Marlins don't trade Alcantara, it will be no great loss for pitching-needy contenders. They need guys who can help now, such as Joe Ryan.
But that, of course, depends on whether the Minnesota Twins want to deal.
Amid a run in which they have lost 25 out of 39 dating back to June 5, the Twins aren't exactly trending toward buying. They know they have to start playing better baseball, and fast.
And yet, FanGraphs still gives them the second-best playoff odds of any team in the AL Central after only the division-leading Detroit Tigers. They can also look into their near-future and see a bunch of injury reinforcements, including Pablo López.
This is surely at least partly why the Twins are expected to keep Ryan, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today. There's also the fact that the All-Star righty is not running short on club control, as he is arbitration-eligible through 2027.
This is also true of ace relievers Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax, who therefore figure to have exorbitant asking prices even if they are more available than Ryan. And while Byron Buxton is a trade chip on paper, he has made it clear he won't be waiving his no-trade clause.
Take these guys off the board, and all the Twins really have to offer is a couple of pending free agents in Willi Castro and Harrison Bader. They're nice pieces, but not exactly game-changing types for the summer market.
We'll Get to See a Luis Arraez-Steven Kwan Duo in San Diego
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Shifting back now to prospective buyers, it sure seems like the San Diego Padres want to turn their left field question mark into an exclamation point.
They've reportedly been thirsting after Jarren Duran, with Dennis Lin of The Athletic writing that the Padres are "enamored" with the 2024 All-Star Game MVP. But as long as the Boston Red Sox are contending, it's hard to see how they and the Friars are supposed to match up on a deal.
So instead, it wouldn't be surprising if the Padres pivoted to Steven Kwan.
The Cleveland Guardians will "at the very least will listen" if other teams call after the two-time All-Star, according to Kiley McDaniel and Jeff Passan of ESPN. With only two years of club control left, he is at that stage of his career where a Cleveland player pretty much automatically becomes trade bait.
The 27-year-old is the best defensive left fielder in the game, as well as the best pure hitter this side of Luis Arraez. If the two of them were to team up in San Diego, the Padres would have MLB's two best contact merchants atop their lineup.
The acquisition cost for Kwan would not be cheap, but Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has a long track record of not being afraid to take big swings. And while his farm system doesn't go deep, it does have two elite prospects in shortstop Leo De Vries and catcher Ethan Salas.
The Dodgers Will Break the (Prospect) Bank for Mason Miller
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As for how the Los Angeles Dodgers might counter any aggression on the Padres' part, the one thing they must do is shore up the bullpen.
It has been a significant weakness, ranking 24th in the league in ERA and racking up 17 losses. And whereas the rotation can pin real hope on Blake Snell's return off the injured list, there's a bit more uncertainty as to what Blake Treinen, Michael Kopech and Brusdar Graterol can give the bullpen this year.
Hence why it's so hard to ignore a possibility for the Dodgers floated by Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic: Mason Miller.
The Athletics' closer hasn't been quite as electrifying in 2025 as he was in 2024, but the fastball is still getting as high as 104.1 mph. He has also long since shaken off a slow start, posting a 1.96 ERA with six hits allowed in his last 18.1 innings.
Per Rosenthal, the A's heretofore stubborn stance on trading the 26-year-old is "subject to change." And of all the teams that could be desperate enough to move heaven and earth to get him out of Sacramento, the Dodgers have one advantage.
Namely, their wealth of young talent. They have the No. 3 farm system in MLB, plus a whole bunch of former prospects who could appeal to the Athletics. Among the latter group is catcher Dalton Rushing and right-hander Bobby Miller.
MacKenzie Gore Will End Up in Boston
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If Miller is the best reliever traded, the question naturally becomes who will be the best starting pitcher to be on the move.
MacKenzie Gore wasn't in the conversation a week ago, but that began to change as he was representing the Washington Nationals at the All-Star Game. And now, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, teams are calling and Nats general manager Mike DeBartolo is listening.
As Gore is only 26 and controlled through 2027, the Nats might as well listen and see if anyone offers a boatload of talent that could help get their years-long rebuild back on the right track. And if any team should indulge them, it's the Red Sox.
Whereas their offense has kept humming along even after the trade of Rafael Devers in June, the starting rotation just keeps getting thinner underneath staff ace Garrett Crochet. Kutter Crawford and Hunter Dobbins are already done for the year, and the same may prove to be true of Tanner Houck after his latest setback.
The Red Sox are contending despite this, and they would be wise to take the position that the World Series would be within reach if they scored a proper co-ace for Crochet. To this end, Gore is a perfect match on paper.
As to whether he would be worth parting with, say, a Marcelo Mayer, a Wilyer Abreu, a Kristian Campbell or a Payton Tolle, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow should heed his own advice: "I think we've talked a lot about looking to the future, at some point, the future has to be now."
Most Shocking Trade Will Be Adley Rutschman to the Giants
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This is a blatant Hail Mary, as the odds of the Baltimore Orioles trading Adley Rutschman seem somewhere between slim and none.
General manager Mike Elias has indicated he's willing to sell, but also that he's going to draw a line at the team's more long-term assets:
This would seem to rule out Rutschman. He was the No. 1 pick in the 2019 draft and he helped transform the O's into a contender upon his arrival in 2022. He's also still under club control through 2027.
Yet it's no secret the 27-year-old has been trending the wrong way, particularly offensively. It's likewise no secret he's more expendable now than he used to be, as behind him in the pipeline are two highly regarded catching prospects: Samuel Basallo and the recently drafted Ike Irish.
Rutschman almost certainly won't be going anywhere if he isn't back from an oblique strain before July 31. But if he is and he makes a strong impression, no team should be more intrigued than the San Francisco Giants.
President of baseball operations Buster Posey has quickly proved to be fond of big-name players, after all, and he should know Rutschman is a big fan of his. Even more than that, Posey should know he's a high-upside solution for a catcher spot that has produced a league-low .555 OPS.
Is a deal a long shot? You bet. But is it in that oh-so-perfect sweet spot between "interesting" and "just plausible enough?" Yes, that too.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
