Realistic Expectations for Myles Turner's Rookie Season with the Indiana Pacers

Myles Turner entered the NBA draft viewed mostly as a project. He'd averaged 5.6 points over his final eight games at Texas without having strung together much consistency throughout the year. 

"Because of his age, lack of strength and his body type, the physicality of the NBA will be a major issue early in his career," wrote ESPN.com's Fran Fraschilla back in January. 

But despite all the skepticism regarding his first-year transition, Turner was an absolute standout in summer league. And with Roy Hibbert now in Los Angeles and David West in San Antonio, the Indiana Pacers' rookie big man could be looking at a significant role right away.

Immediate Role

The Pacers will likely mix in Paul George at the 4 and newly acquired Jordan Hill at the 5, but regardless of whether Indiana goes small or big, minutes should be there for Turner in 2015-16. 

Quite frankly, Hill and Ian Mahinmi just aren't threatening-enough offensive players. Considering only six teams in the league ranked worse in offensive efficiency last year, per ESPN, Turner's shot-making skills should hold extra value to this particular frontcourt. 

Fernando Medina/Getty Images

Turner may even see plays run through him around the elbow, a spot he's most comfortable operating from. 

Throw in his pick-and-roll and pick-and-pop ability, and Turner should end up receiving a good amount of touches and scoring opportunities in season No. 1. 

Projected Strengths, Weaknesses and Impact

Turner is a rare breed of big man with the potential to stretch the floor as a shooter and protect the rim. It's a combination you just don't often see. He's the only college power forward or center since 1996 to make at least 15 threes, shoot 80 percent from the line and block 80 shots in a season, according to Sports-Reference.com (only other player to do it was Clemson's K.J. McDaniels in 2013-14).  

However, though comfortable from downtown, he only shot 27.4 percent, and still needs a few years of reps to build his outside credibility. 

Turner projects as a big who'll set up mostly at the high posts to short corners, where he can separate into jumpers around the key and effortlessly release right over his man. 

Expect: Mid-Range Offense

He immediately established himself as Indiana's go-to option in summer league. 

Turner put on a mid-range scoring clinic, having averaged 18.7 points and converted 10 field goals in one-on-one or isolation situations through three games. Step-backs, turnarounds, rise-and-fires—Turner has shown he can create his own shot against a set half-court defense, and that's something coach Frank Vogel will likely tap into.

Expect Turner to be used as a back-to-the-basket or face-up weapon in the 12-18-foot range a few times per game. 

Expect: Offensive Inconsistency

Unfortunately, Turner isn't a physical bully or explosive athlete, and that's likely to limit his easy-bucket opportunities. Most of his shot attempts will likely come away from the basket, which should lead to offensive inconsistency early on. 

It's only natural for a player who leans on his jumper to go through ups and downs. We saw it from Turner at Texas, where he shot 50.3 percent against non-ranked opponents and just 37.6 percent against Top 25 teams. 

He'll have moments that highlight his deep range, advanced moves and above-the-rim activity—just don't expect to see it every night.

Expect: Shot Blocking

At 6'11" with a 7'4" wingspan and a terrific nose for the ball, Turner's shot-blocking tools and instincts may generate the most buzz next year in Indiana. 

It's been an area of the game he's specialized in dating back to high school, and it carried right over to college, where he swatted 2.6 shots in 22.2 minutes per game and registered the highest block percentage of anyone in the 2015 draft class. 

Turner didn't skip a beat in Orlando Summer League play, either, which he led with 4.3 blocks per game.

His length and timing are unteachable strengths that should work from Day 1 to year No. 10. 

Expect: Foul Trouble

Turner was prone to foul trouble at Texas, and that isn't likely to change much early in the pros. He just doesn't have great lateral foot speed, a limitation that's likely to hurt him outside the paint. Opponents may look to bring Turner away from the hoop and attack him in the pick-and-roll game. 

He could have difficulty defending stretch 4s or 5s in general. 

He'll tally plenty of blocks, but expect Turner to struggle containing the NBA's more versatile big men.

The Numbers

Depending on how accurate his shooting touch becomes, Turner could be considered a sneaky contender for 2016 Rookie of the Year.

As of now, it looks like the playing time will be there. And with the minutes, we should see the blocks, as well as the easy catch-and-finish opportunities that players like Monta Ellis and Paul George create. 

Turner's offensive polish and shot-making skills should also result in the occasional scoring eruption. 

Minutes	FG Pct.	Points	Rebounds	3PT Pct.	Blocks
24.0	.450	10.0	8.0	.270	1.80

As a rookie, expect his field-goal percentage to be lower than most at his position, given his particular shot selection. But Turner should ultimately be capable of averaging double digits in points while racking up rebounds and blocks with regularity. 

With the addition of Ellis and George back in the Pacers lineup, Turner will have the chance to contribute next year for a playoff contender in the East.