Dallas Cowboys Don't Need a 'Lead Dog' at Running Back

This spring, when they refused to pay big bucks to retain running back DeMarco Murray, the Dallas Cowboys became the first team in NFL history to let a reigning Associated Press Offensive Player of the Year leave town. 

This does not indicate that the Cowboys are stupid.

On the surface, letting go of a guy who led the NFL in rushing by a 484-yard margin seems crazy, especially considering Murray wound up lingering longer than expected on the free-agent market before signing a relatively reasonable deal with the division-rival Philadelphia Eagles. 

But the reality is this development represents a continually evolving trend that has seen running backs lose a tremendous amount of value—literally and figuratively—in recent years. We're coming off the two most pass-heavy seasons in NFL history, and not a single Super Bowl champion this century has had a first-team All-Pro running back on its roster. 

Season	Passes/game	Runs/game	Pass %
2013	35.4	27.1	56.7
2014	34.9	26.7	56.6
2012	34.7	27.2	56.1
1995	34.8	27.5	55.9
2011	34.0	27.3	55.5
2010	33.7	27.2	55.4

The last time we had a running back taken with the first or second overall pick of the draft was 2006 (Reggie Bush). That year, 23 backs ran for 1,000 yards. Only 13 backs were able to hit that mark in both 2013 and 2014—the lowest totals this century and a 43 percent drop-off from that '06 campaign.

Brad Gagnon

Plus, the Cowboys were made to operate at an elite level without a superstar back. They have a Pro Bowl quarterback in Tony Romo, who is coming off the sixth highest-rated season in NFL history. They have a Pro Bowl wide receiver in Dez Bryant, who has more touchdown catches than anyone else in football dating back to 2012. They also have the league's best offensive line—one that features three 2014 Pro Bowlers, none of whom have turned 25. 

And they have a pretty decent collection of backs anyway. 

Last month, Cowboys running backs coach Gary Brown noted, via the Dallas Morning News, that the offense lacks the "lead dog" it had in Murray. However, he wasn't the least bit concerned about a running game that features a 27-year-old former top-five pick with one 1,000-yard season on his resume (Darren McFadden), a 23-year-old who averaged a league-high 6.7 yards per carry in 2014  among backs with at least 50 carries (Joseph Randle) and a prototypical passing-down weapon (Lance Dunbar). 

Back	YPA
1. Joseph Randle	6.7
2. Darren Sproles	5.8
3. Justin Forsett	5.4
4. Latavius Murray	5.2
5. Lamar Miller	5.1
6. Jeremy Hill	5.1
7. Juwan Thompson	5.0
8. Jamaal Charles	5.0
9. Arian Foster	4.8
10. Jerick McKinnon	4.8

“I think we have three capable guys who can go out and do what we need to do," said Brown. "I’m not concerned about it at all.”

Offensive coordinator Scott Linehan echoed that sentiment while expressing excitement regarding the committee approach: 

"

I just think that we have a complementary backfield. They’re going to spread out the carries. Some games are going to be different than others. Maybe one guy is going to have more in one game than the other or maybe sometimes two guys are going to split the carries, sometimes it’s going to be three. Again, it’s to be determined. It is a bit rare to have the one guy carry all the load. I tip my hat to DeMarco for being able to do it. But these other guys have different roles now that he’s gone. We’re going to have someone step up, and I know they’re excited about it.

"

That system also keeps everyone fresh while limiting exposure, which obviously lowers everyone's chances of getting injured. And if someone does go down, it hurts the team a lot less than if Murray were to suffer a major injury as the "lead dog."

Frankly, based on his track record, Dallas is lucky that didn't happen last season. They'd be pushing their luck giving him another full workload in 2015, especially considering that he's coming off a 392-carry season, the seventh-busiest campaign for a back in NFL history. 

Football Outsiders' "Curse of 370"—which posits that "a running back with 370 or more carries during the regular season will usually suffer either a major injury or loss of effectiveness the following year, unless he is named Eric Dickerson"—can't be ignored.

Back	Year/age	Beyond that...
Larry Johnson (416)	'06/26	Missed half of '07, never had 1,000 yards again
Jamal Anderson (410)	'98/25	Missed 14 games in '99, 3.6 YPA rest of career
James Wilder (407)	'84/26	One 1,000-yard season the rest of his career
Eric Dickerson (404)	'86/26	Three more 1,000-yard seasons
Eddie George (403)	'00/26	Averaged 3.4 YPA rest of his career
Gerald Riggs (397)	'85/24	One 1,000-yard season the rest of his career
DeMarco Murray (392)	'14/26	?
Terrell Davis (392)	'98/26	Played only 16 more games
Ricky Williams (392)	'03/26	One 1,000-yard season the rest of his career
Barry Foster (390)	'92/23	Played only two more sub-1,000-yard years

For those who believe it's important to maintain the perceived stability that goes with having a consistent presence in the backfield, consider that the Super Bowl-champion New England Patriots were the only team in football that didn't have a rusher reach 100 attempts in 2014. 

Committees are where it's at. In 2004, backs carried the ball 20-plus times on 238 occasions. In 2014, that total had shrunk all the way to 128. In other words, backs are getting 20 or more attempts about half as often as they were a decade ago. 

Brad Gagnon

And even beyond the prime example New England gives us, there's little correlation between having a workhorse and being successful. Among the eight backs who had 250 or more carries in 2014, only three—Murray, Lynch and Le'Veon Bell—were on playoff teams. The Eagles, Bears, Redskins, Texans and 49ers didn't benefit from having "lead dogs" LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte, Alfred Morris, Arian Foster and Frank Gore. 

Meanwhile, Trent Richardson, Ahmad Bradshaw and Dan Herron basically split the carries up for the AFC South-winning Colts, Reggie Bush cut into Joique Bell's workload for the playoff-bound Lions and Cam Newton and DeAngelo Williams lightened Jonathan Stewart's workload for the NFC South-winning Panthers. 

This has become a league in which dudes like Antowain Smith, Willie Parker, Joseph Addai, Brandon Jacobs, Pierre Thomas, Brandon Jackson and Ahmad Bradshaw can win Super Bowls as No. 1 backs. A bona fide lead dog just isn't necessary. 

Cowboys fans undoubtedly have fond memories of the impact Emmitt Smith made when this franchise won three championships in a four-year span two decades ago, but the game has changed. And although Murray made this team better—and Lynch has certainly been a Super Bowl-caliber difference-maker in Seattle the last two years—the Cowboys can be just as successful without a Smith, a Murray or a Lynch crouched behind Romo.

Brad Gagnon has covered the NFL for Bleacher Report since 2012.

Follow @Brad_Gagnon