Every NBA Team's Best- and Worst-Case Scenario for Season's Final 3 Weeks
The stretch run of the 2024-25 NBA season is upon us.
Some teams will navigate it much better than others.
As each franchise views its road map for the following three weeks, it will sense opportunities for growth, positive development or even simply some needed juicing of their draft-lottery odds. They'll also conveniently overlook the fact that so much could still go wrong before the campaign closes on April 13.
We're here to weigh all possible outcomes while drawing up the best- and worst-case scenarios for every team from this point forward.
Atlanta Hawks
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Best-case scenario: They hold steady at No. 7 and see notable growth in their young core
It's probably too late for Atlanta to climb out of the play-in tournament, but entering it with the No. 7 seed would put this club a half-step ahead of the competition.
The Hawks would then host the 7-8 collision to tip off the event and have the safety net of knowing they could host a second game if the first one slips away.
Beyond winning, though, the best-case scenario would involve seeing these victories secured by key members of the young core. Onyeka Okongwu might be making a leap as we speak, but sustaining this statistical success would still boost confidence.
The Hawks would also love to see more offensive development from Dyson Daniels and better consistency from top pick Zaccharie Risacher.
Worst-case scenario: They slip out of a top-eight seed, while the Lakers climb to No. 2 out West
Since the Hawks don't own their first-round pick, no amount of losing can ever add up to any winning.
With tanking off the table, they might as well maximize their chances of escaping the play-in, and losing the protection of a top-eight seed would do the opposite. They'd then need two wins in two games just to face the uphill challenge of a first-round tussle with the Cleveland Cavaliers and their .800-plus winning percentage.
If the Los Angeles Lakers get healthy in time to jostle their way back into the West's second seed, that would further spoil Atlanta's stretch run, since the Hawks control L.A.'s first-round pick.
Boston Celtics
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Best-case scenario: Avoid key injuries and enter the postseason on a shooting tear
The Celtics aren't changing their position in the standings (second in the East) and have nothing left to prove in the regular season. So, performance-wise, just about nothing that happens between now and the final buzzer would hold significant consequences.
Saying that, Boston obviously wants to hit the ground running come playoff-time, so the best it can hope for is avoiding any significant injuries and having its many shooters heat up ahead of the four-round fight to the finish line.
Worst-case scenario: A key contributor—perhaps a 7'3" one—suffers an untimely injury
For as dominant as the Cavaliers and Oklahoma City Thunder have seemed at times, it still feels reasonable to say the Celtics have this league's top six- or seven-man rotation. But the math falls out of their favor should injuries start piling up at the least opportune time.
While that could happen to anyone, the worry is greatest with Kristaps Porziņģis, a game-changer when healthy who happens to have a lengthy injury history.
The Celtics might be deep enough to win without him, but it would be tough to label the defending champs as favorites without their jumbo-sized shooter and shot-blocker manning the middle.
Brooklyn Nets
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Best-case scenario: They finish with a bottom-five record while gaining some clarity with youth
The Nets appear to have found a keeper in first-year coach Jordi Fernández, who's had this roster punching above its weight for most of the season. It'd be fine if a bit of that friskiness cooled down, though, since they must maximize the value of the first-round pick they paid a significant cost to reacquire.
Amid some late-season losing, though, Brooklyn can hopefully feel a bit better about which players it wants to keep around and which it can discard.
This franchise might aggressively seek out significant upgrades this summer, but it will need some kind of core to put around whatever players it can get.
Worst-case scenario: They worsen the lottery odds without coaxing any consistency out of the young nucleus
The Nets arguably should have tanked much harder this season, but that ship has sailed. Bottoming out would only take them so far, and this roster has seldom shown an inclination toward that direction.
In fact, the Nets surely still have some wins in them. And if they really catch fire, they could worsen their odds of striking lottery gold by multiple percentage points.
Meaningless wins don't always have to feel like empty calories, but they might if there's no discernible rhyme or reason to them.
The Nets could wind up winning games without forming an identity or solidifying any building blocks. What would that actually accomplish?
Charlotte Hornets
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Best-case scenario: They hold a bottom-three record but keep competitive with LaMelo Ball starring and Tidjane Salaun building encouragement
The Hornets have quieted trade buzz around Ball, but it would help if he made that clearer why. His volume routinely ranks among the Association's loudest, but his efficiency has backtracked in a worrisome way. Reversing that trend for even a few weeks would help generate the right kind of momentum to carry into the offseason.
And is it too greedy to ask for more signs of life from Salaun? The 19-year-old, who went sixth overall last summer, has largely had a rookie season to forget, but fans might be willing to forget that if he pops for a few big stat lines and highlight finishes down the stretch.
Worst-case scenario: The lottery odds worsen, and Ball can't get his shooting back on track
With flattened lottery odds for the bottom-three finishers, the Hornets have as good a chance at striking it rich as anyone. If they climb one spot higher, though, those chances decrease, and maybe that's the difference between landing a franchise player or bringing in a bust.
The Hornets could also have reasons to worry if Ball can't answer questions about his credentials to captain an NBA vessel. He has the name power, salary and usage rate of a megastar, but transcendent talents shoot better than 40.2 percent from the field and 33.5 percent from range.
The 23-year-old isn't playing winning basketball, and if this rough patch gets rougher, Charlotte might have to seriously question if he ever will.
Chicago Bulls
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Best-case scenario: Josh Giddey, Coby White and Matas Buzelis form the team's long-term foundation
Since the Bulls didn't abandon ship at the trade deadline, tanking their way out of the play-in tournament is off the table. So, if losing isn't going to help, they might as well win with players who could stick around for a while.
It gets a lot easier to cover the cost of Giddey's upcoming restricted free agency if he sustains his recent scoring surge (23.1 points on 52.2/52.5/86.5 shooting over his last nine outings). White is already making folks forget he had a choppy start to this season. And Buzelis has seized his post-deadline opportunity in a way that could rocket him up way-too-early redraft boards.
Worst-case scenario: Giddey's free agency gets complicated, and Buzelis loses developmental minutes to Chicago's play-in chase
Giddey is a fascinating player if there is enough volume and efficiency in his three-point shot, but he can look like a compiler when there isn't.
If he regresses as a shooter, Chicago might be left with the lose-lose possibilities for his free agency of overpaying to keep him or letting him walk for nothing.
It also feels right up the Bulls' alley to make a furious push for the ninth seed at the expense of their prized lottery pick.
Even with deadline subtractions and injury absences, Buzelis isn't always guaranteed to get 20 minutes per game. If he's watching more of this stretch run than he's playing, that can't be good news for a club that probably isn't climbing higher than ninth and would have no shot at a first-round upset if it manages to escape the play-in tournament.
Cleveland Cavaliers
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Best-case scenario: They lock up the league’s best record without running their stars ragged
The Cavaliers have nothing left to prove during the regular season.
They aren’t slipping out of the top spot in the Eastern Conference standings, and having a better record than the Oklahoma City Thunder would only matter if both teams reach the NBA Finals. They also can’t answer any questions skeptics may still have about past playoff problems with this roster.
Still, having the best record in the league is a notable accomplishment, and it could have a tangible benefit if the two best teams in the regular season are also the two best teams come playoff time.
It’s more important, of course, for Cleveland to have its stars ready and rested for the two-month trek to the championship round, but the Cavs are talented and deep enough to do both.
Worst-case scenario: The edge wears off during a snoozy stretch run
If the Cavs aren’t concerned with having the league’s best record, then what carrot are they chasing for the next few weeks? That’s a long time to play potentially disinterested basketball, especially when coasting could be an option for a big chunk of their middle-of-the-pack remaining schedule.
This group has never been in this position before. It's been good since Donovan Mitchell’s arrival, but it has now made the leap to great.
Can the Cavs keep pushing themselves in games that don’t really matter? Because if they ease up too much on the gas pedal now, they might have trouble getting the motor fully revved back up once the playoffs start.
Dallas Mavericks
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Best-case scenario: They snag their spot in the draft lottery, and no one else suffers a catastrophic injury
Whatever hopes the Mavs had of making a run with their Luka-less roster went out the window when his old running mate, Kyrie Irving, suffered a torn ACL. Dallas’ injury report reads like a short story. This season is already over.
That’s how the Mavs should approach it anyway, as gaining a lottery invite would be far more rewarding than delaying their inevitable demise at the play-in.
They also might consider bubble-wrapping any key contributors who return from injury, since another long-term ailment might jeopardize what’s possible for next season.
Worst-case scenario: The injury bug strikes again
Dallas’ injury issues are so bad that it could forfeit games for not having enough players to suit up. Whoever is available to play is going to see major minutes by default.
So, it’s fair to worry about the stress that might add to someone who maybe doesn’t have the cleanest health history already.
Namely, all fingers in the DFW should be crossed whenever Anthony Davis and Dereck Lively II return to action. They aren’t fundamentally changing what’s possible for this group, but if they suffered the wrong kind of injury, they could lower the ceiling for the 2025-26 campaign long before it even tips off.
Denver Nuggets
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Best-case scenario: They nab the No. 2 seed behind their magical 2-man game
Regardless where the Nuggets finish, they might be as feared as anyone in the Western Conference.
They have the planet’s best player in Nikola Jokić and support pieces who have already followed his lead to a championship. That said, they’d look especially dangerous in the No. 2 spot, since they would be on the opposite side of the bracket from the top-seeded Thunder, open the playoffs against a play-in participant and perhaps host multiple postseason series at altitude.
What would be most beneficial, though, would be having Jokić and his co-star, Jamal Murray, operating in perfect harmony. Their two-man game might be the league’s clearest definition of a pick-your-poison scenario for opposing defenses.
If that’s operating at optimal levels, the Nuggets are a nightmare matchup for anyone.
Worst-case scenario: They fall to the No. 5 seed and watch Jamal Murray get out of his groove
All road maps out of the Western Conference look daunting, but the No. 5 seed might lead to a particularly treacherous path.
Depending on how things shake out, there’s a scenario in which a fifth-seeded Denver team would open on the road against Luka Dončić, LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers, then travel to tussle with the 60-something win Thunder and then face whoever was good enough to escape the other side of the bracket. All before potentially locking horns with the East’s best in the Finals. Yikes.
It would take Denver being at its absolute best to survive such a scenario, which usually means having Murray playing great instead of good-to-really-good.
The 28-year-old has proved equally capable of doing both. He’s been awesome since the All-Star break (23.2 points on 48.8/46.7/94.3), but he wasn’t at that level before it (21 on 47.1/37.5/87.2).
Detroit Pistons
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Best-case scenario: They snag a top-four seed while picking up some signature wins
With a playoff spot effectively already in hand, the rising Pistons can dream about even higher aims.
More specifically, they should have their focus fixed on the East’s No. 4 seed, which is not only within arm’s reach but would also carry them clear of a pair of Central Division rivals in the Milwaukee Bucks and Indiana Pacers.
Stacking any kind of victories would obviously help, but this young roster could use the confidence boost from winning some of the marquee matchups left on the schedule.
The Pistons are just 10-20 against .500-or-better opponents and a combined 4-12 against the Celtics, Cavaliers, Pacers, Bucks and Knicks.
Worst-case scenario: They’re stuck at No. 6 and see either their defense or their shooting decline
Before dropping an ounce of rain on the Pistons’ parade, we should acknowledge the fact that this season has already been a smashing success in the Motor City.
They were a 68-loss dumpster fire just last season and ranked right near the bottom in both three-point shooting (34.8 percent, 26th) and defensive efficiency (118.0, 25th).
Everything is different now, though, from the club’s 45-win pace to its significant gains in outside shooting (36 percent, 15th) and point prevention (111.4 defensive rating, ninth).
This is clearly a winning formula, so now the Pistons need to cement it as their identity. Backtracking in either of their biggest growth areas could sap a lot of the good will they’ve earned and hang an ominous cloud over their postseason outlook.
Golden State Warriors
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Best-case scenario: They avoid the play-in tournament and find the right fit for Jonathan Kuminga
The Warriors have looked like world-beaters since bringing Jimmy Butler to the Bay Area. They've gone an impressive 15-4 since making the trade while posting the Association's fourth-best net rating of this stretch (plus-10).
Their previous struggles may have created too much of a gap to get them any higher than sixth, but holding that spot and avoiding the play-in tournament would be a massive win.
Perhaps equally critical to their greatest postseason ambitions, though, would be finding the right way to fit Jonathan Kuminga into the mix. The bouncy swingman recently returned from a multiple-month absence with an ankle injury and now needs to figure out where to fit with a team that learned to win without him.
Worst-case scenario: They slip into the play-in and can't find enough shooting to keep their best players on the floor together
The genius-level basketball IQ and defensive versatility of the Butler-Draymond Green combo has played a massive part in this power-up. But there isn't much shooting between the two, which has created the question of how much Kuminga, a career 33.9 percent three-point shooter, can share the floor with them.
In a perfect universe, they'd get enough shooting from at least one of these three, plus Stephen Curry and whoever fills the fifth spot in the lineup, to close out victories with their five most talented players on the floor.
But if there isn't enough spacing to operate, Golden State is at risk of seeing the wins slow down, slipping back to perhaps the No. 8 seed and maybe not even getting a shot at seeing how this roster works in a playoff setting.
Houston Rockets
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Best-case scenario: They hold strong at No. 2 and carry a clean bill of health into the playoffs
The Rockets wobbled quite a bit around the All-Star break, but they may have recovered just in time to punctuate their breakthrough season with the West's No. 2 seed.
This defense is about as relentless as it gets, and the offense has enough juice to compensate for the rare off-night on the game's less glamorous end.
Houston could look even scarier by the playoffs' opening tip if it can get recent top-five picks Amen Thompson (foot) and Reed Sheppard (thumb) back on the floor.
Worst-case scenario: Their shooters go cold, and their defense can't stop them from skidding back to the No. 5 seed.
Houston isn't a great shooting team...or even a good one. No team has been less accurate from the charity stripe (74 percent), and only six have converted a lower percentage of their long-range looks (34.7).
That puts a ton of pressure on this team to defend its tail off and maximize its two-point scoring, and it doesn't give this group much wiggle room.
What's really worrisome, though, is that even the slightest slipup could have major ramifications given how congested things are between the West's Nos. 2 and 5 seeds.
Indiana Pacers
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Best-case scenario: They stay in the East's top four as Tyrese Haliburton continues his climb toward reclaiming superstar status
Since Tyrese Haliburton's early-season struggles continued a cold spell from last season's finish, it was fair to wonder whether he'd be able to bounce back.
Those concerns feel fully swept under the rug now, as the 25-year-old has been brilliant since the calendar flipped to 2025: 19.5 points on 51.2/44.5/86.7 shooting with 9.5 assists against 1.5 turnovers.
If Indiana has its superstar back, then its biggest dreams for this season will seem attainable. The Pacers' plans extend to a hopefully lengthy playoff run, but for now they should be focused on retaining a top-four seed and the first-round home-court advantage that comes along with it.
Worst-case scenario: Injuries again slow down Haliburton, and Indy slides back to the No. 6 seed
A hip injury recently cost Haliburton three games, while back soreness was to blame for his latest absence. Hopefully, neither is anything major, but back spasms pestered him throughout last year's playoffs.
If the two-time All-Star isn't at his absolute best, then the Pacers don't have the knockout power to hang with the East's heavyweights. They also have zero margin for error with both the Bucks and Pistons breathing down their necks.
Los Angeles Clippers
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Best-case scenario: Kawhi Leonard returns to form, and the Clippers follow his lead out of the play-in tournament
Kawhi Leonard didn't debut until January and didn't top the 30-minute mark for another month. He's had stretches in which he has resembled his old self, but they haven't come with the level of consistency we're used to seeing.
That might be changing, though. Over his last four outings, he's up to 27.5 points on 57.9/59.1/69.2 shooting with an average plus/minus of plus-8.5.
This is the two-way force we've twice seen claim NBA Finals MVP honors. And if it's the player the Clippers consistently have over the closing weeks, he is capable of elevating them to the No. 6 seed.
Worst-case scenario: Leonard battles inconsistency, and L.A. gets locked into the No. 8 seed
You can't evaluate a player based on four games. So, as exciting as it's been to watch Leonard at his best, it's critical to keep the sample size in mind.
Prior to this heater, his previous four games had yielded just 22.8 points on 43.8/23.1/78.9 shooting with an average plus/minus of minus-1.5.
The 33-year-old has only suited up 26 times this season, so it's perhaps unfair to expect him to fully be in rhythm. If he isn't, though, L.A. may lack the differentiator it needs to surpass the Timberwolves and Warriors.
Los Angeles Lakers
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Best-case scenario: They move clear of their injury issues in time to snag the West's No. 2 seed
The Lakers are hurting at the moment. LeBron James and Rui Hachimura are sidelined by a groin strain and patellar tendinopathy, respectively, while Luka Dončić is trying to gut his way around calf and ankle ailments.
Knock on wood here, but these injuries shouldn't be long-term concerns. And if they clear up quickly enough, L.A. can still make a push for the No. 2 spot.
Worst-case scenario: The injury issues linger, and the defense regresses
While the Lakers have improbably improved on the defensive end since swapping out Anthony Davis and Max Christie for Dončić, their new-look personnel still opens itself to skepticism.
Can a team with Dončić and Austin Reaves on the perimeter and Jaxson Hayes on the interior really keep this up? If opponents start connecting on more three-pointers, probably not.
Add in the worries that the Lakers' injury issues won't just disappear, and there's a real chance this group struggles to finish better than fifth in the West.
Memphis Grizzlies
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Best-case scenario: Ja Morant gets healthy and powers the Grizzlies to the No. 2 seed
The Grizzlies have done a tremendous job of bolstering their roster around Ja Morant, but their chances of being great are inherently tied to his own.
When the two-time All-Star is on top of his game, they are incredibly difficult to take down. They've gone 19-6 when he scores 25-plus points, and only one of those losses was decided by more than five points.
Morant has battled shoulder soreness for months now and recently popped up on the injury report with a hamstring issue, but he has looked more like himself of late (30.3 points over his last eight outings).
If we're focused more on his wild stat lines than his ailments over the coming weeks, Memphis can still muscle its way into a No. 2 seed.
Worst-case scenario: Morant can't avoid the injury bug, and Memphis can't move out of the No. 5 spot
Morant's shoulder injury, which was surgically repaired last year, is a real worry. And he plays such a physically taxing style that there are kind of always concerns about his ability to stay upright.
The 25-year-old recently told reporters he had "not at all" felt like himself this season, which underscores the impact these injuries have had.
If Morant is not at his best, this team won't be, either. And considering the Grizzlies are already bringing up the rear in this four-team fight for the No. 2 seed, it's entirely possible they won't be able to improve their positioning.
Miami Heat
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Best-case scenario: They snap out of spiral in time to retain hope of getting out of the play-in
Miami has appeared lost and listless since brokering the Jimmy Butler blockbuster and has become a laughingstock in the final frame.
Since the trade deadline, the Heat are a woeful 4-15 with an unconscionably atrocious minus-26.9 net rating in the fourth quarter.
If anyone can get the train at least back near the tracks, though, it's head coach Erik Spoelstra. Between him, a better-than-ever Tyler Herro and do-everything defender Bam Adebayo, there are reasons to believe (or at least hope) Miami can snap out of this malaise in time to again survive and advance through the play-in tournament.
Worst-case scenario: The losses keep coming, and the Heat land in the lottery
Normally, when a veteran team has no discernible chance of challenging a top seed, the idea of escaping the play-in tournament to get trounced in the first round feels akin to wasting time. Not so for the Heat.
If they can somehow sneak out of the play-in, their future becomes a lot easier to navigate.
That's because if they land in the lottery, then the protected 2025 first-rounder they owe the Thunder becomes unprotected in 2026. And that would then concertina the 2027 lottery-protected first they owe the Hornets to an unprotected 2028 first.
They need to be a playoff team so they can pay this draft debt now and not worry about this sinking roster owing a pair of unprotected firsts in the near future.
Milwaukee Bucks
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Best-case scenario: They push their way to the No. 4 seed thanks to a big lift from Kyle Kuzma
The Bucks have one of the league's best tandems in Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard, but they've struggled to find the right third wheel to put alongside them.
In part, that's why they shipped out Khris Middleton for Kyle Kuzma, who has filled a support role on a championship team before but has posted some of the worst shooting rates of his career this season.
So far, that trade isn't paying real dividends, but there's still time to make this work. And if Kuzma carves out the right niche soon, Milwaukee can still push its way to No. 4 and feel better about its chances of advancing in the postseason.
Worst-case scenario: They slip to the No. 6 seed while failing to find support scoring from their supporting cast
The Bucks can count on about 55 efficient points a night from the Antetokounmpo-Lillard tandem. It's the other scoring they aren't always sure they'll find.
And they really need it to come from Kuzma, since his arrival came at the expense of Middleton, and especially since Bobby Portis Jr. is in the middle of a 25-game suspension.
If that support never materializes, Milwaukee will struggle to stack wins together. And that would leave the door wide open for Detroit to jump this team in the standings.
Minnesota Timberwolves
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Best-case scenario: They capitalize on favorable schedule to claim the No. 6 seed and get Anthony Edwards onto MVP ballots
Seven of the eight easiest remaining schedules belong to Eastern Conference clubs. Minnesota is the one exception, and it needs to take advantage of that.
The Timberwolves have done a good job of that lately, toppling more than a few mediocre-or-worse opponents amid a recent eight-game winning streak.
If they can keep this up, they might avoid the play-in altogether and get star swingman Anthony Edwards onto more MVP ballots.
Worst-case scenario: They get stuck in the play-in and have a nightly search for a second scorer
Julius Randle has meshed better of late, but he's not churning out 20-plus-point performances the way he did in New York. Naz Reid is cycling through good games and clunkers. There remains a hit-or-miss element with Donte DiVincenzo's scoring. And Wolves fans keep waiting for the "a-ha" moment on the offensive end for Jaden McDaniels.
That's a long-winded way of saying Minnesota isn't always sure where it will find the source of its non-Edwards scoring. And if the Wolves are constantly searching for second or third options, they probably aren't winning enough games to avoid the play-in.
New Orleans Pelicans
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Best-case scenario: Zion Williamson looks like a reliable franchise centerpiece
The Pels' season was wrecked long ago, and things have probably reached the point where the only question is whether they'll have the third- or fourth-worst record in the league.
Even developing chemistry for next season can't happen, since Dejounte Murray (Achilles), Trey Murphy III (shoulder) and Herb Jones (shoulder) won't suit up before then.
If New Orleans hopes to make something out of nothing, it needs Zion Williamson to continue to stay on the court and destroy all defenses in his path.
Even if the Pelicans aren't fully convinced he's the right player to guide their future, they need him at this level (25 points, 7 rebounds and 6.5 assists over his last eight outings) to revive his trade value.
Worst-case scenario: Williamson gets injured again, and there's no discernible development in the youth
This season feels at least a little encouraging for Williamson, and that's saying something when he may fail to reach the 40-game mark for the fourth time in his six-year career.
Hopefully, the 2019 No. 1 overall pick stays upright, but it would surprise no one if injuries sidetrack him once again.
Outside of Williamson, there isn't a ton to track in New Orleans, save for the potential support players in its young core.
Yves Missi, Jordan Hawkins and Brandon Boston Jr. aren't fortune-changers by any stretch, but they could be helpful pieces to have around. If they don't seize the opportunities created by the injury absences, though, it could weaken the front office's confidence in them.
New York Knicks
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Best-case scenario: A healthy Jalen Brunson picks up where he left off while Mitchell Robinson expands his role
It could be another week or two before the Knicks get Jalen Brunson back from a sprained ankle, and that won't leave him much time to round into form ahead of the playoffs.
Hopefully, the 28-year-old is ready to go from the jump, since none of New York's roster moves change the fact that this team will go as far as he can take it.
Speaking of injury recoveries, things appear to be trending the right direction with Mitchell Robinson. He missed the first 58 games of this season and has appeared rusty (or at least gassed) for the most part, but there are flashes of what he can bring as a finisher, rebounder and paint protector.
The 26-year-old can be a difference-maker even in a reserve role, and it would be all kinds of encouraging to see him comfortably handling 25-ish minutes a night.
Worst-case scenario: Brunson looks out of rhythm upon returning, and the Knicks close with an uninspiring stretch
The Knicks aren't mathematically locked into the No. 3 spot, but functionally, they might as well be. In order to change their seed, they'd either have to take a massive tumble or see the Celtics flat-line down the stretch.
So, with seeding out of the equation, it's all about building momentum to carry into the postseason. If Brunson looks off and New York appears uneven overall, that won't inspire a ton of confidence in an organization attempting to push past the second round for the first time since 2000.
Oklahoma City Thunder
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Best-case scenario: They enter the playoffs with health and the league's best record
With the West's No. 1 seed already in hand, the Thunder have little at stake.
It might be a photo finish between them and the Cavaliers for the league's best record, but that's only relevant if they are the last two teams standing, in which case the one with the superior record would have home-court advantage in the Finals.
Still, it'd be fun to have the bragging rights of being No. 1, plus that's a plausible championship-round outcome. What this team truly covets, though, is a roster that's as healthy as possible for the postseason.
Worst-case scenario: Jalen Williams' hip injury lingers, and offense looks too reliant on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
If you've ever questioned the Thunder's championship chances and not built your skepticism solely around their lack of experience, then you've questioned Jalen Williams and/or Chet Holmgren. More specifically, you've wondered aloud whether either is ready and able to be the second-best player on a championship team.
It's a fair question, since Williams isn't a superstar and Holmgren isn't an All-Star (yet). It's also one that could grow more intriguing should the hip injury that has kept the former out of the past few contests continue to be a nuisance.
These are the two players most capable of providing scoring balance in the Sooner State. And if they aren't ready for this moment, this club could look too reliant on MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for scoring and creation.
Orlando Magic
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Best-case scenario: The star wings heat up in time to claim No. 7 seed.
Early this season and again here lately, Paolo Banchero has dropped hints regarding his readiness to join the league's superstar class. Similarly, Franz Wagner has flashed a potential ascension of his own.
Those two haven't always delivered in tandem, but the talent is there to make that possible. And if they find a way to catch fire together, this team should have enough to wrestle away control of the No. 7 seed and build confidence that its star power and defense is a potent enough blend to frighten anyone in the postseason.
Worst-case scenario: The offensive flaws are too much to overcome
While it's possible the Magic's decision-makers aren't convinced this group is ready for an acceleration, it still feels like a missed opportunity to have left this flawed offense untouched at the trade deadline.
Orlando's shooting shortage is a problem, and as long as it's left unaddressed, it probably puts a ceiling on how high this team can climb.
If this offense continues to sputter, then the Magic are likely to land in the No. 8 spot and not inspire confidence about their ability to get out of the play-in.
Philadelphia 76ers
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Best-case scenario: They finish with a bottom-five record
It was tempting to just go with something here about the zombie apocalypse not starting, since the Sixers' season will obviously land miles shy of expectations.
Joel Embiid, Paul George and Jared McCain are already down for the count, and Tyrese Maxey has missed nine straight contests. The opportunities to create chemistry with this core are well in the rearview.
That's why all focus should be on preserving the top-six protected pick it owes Oklahoma City. The Sixers can't sink low enough to guarantee that happens, but they're much likelier to keep it if they're the league's fifth-worst team instead of its sixth- or seventh-worst.
Worst-case scenario: They have seventh-worst record and no developmental gains to show for it
If Philly gets Maxey back, it'd be fun to see him find his groove on the offensive end. Just like it's been fun to figure out the Sixers really may have something in Quentin Grimes.
Losing that pick would still be a loss, but it wouldn't sting as much as losing the pick because of wins keyed by players who don't have a future with this franchise.
Phoenix Suns
24 of 30
Best-case scenario: They capture a play-in invite thanks to their stars
If you could erase your mind of the Suns' season to this point Men in Black-style, you'd swear that a team with Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal could be a problem matchup come playoff time.
And if you happen to catch this club on one of its best nights, you don't need a neuralyzer to wonder whether that might still be the case.
Chances are, Phoenix and its historically pricey roster won't escape the play-in tournament, if it even qualifies. Still, it's hardly impossible for Durant, Booker and Beal to go bucket-bingeing down the stretch or for the Suns to jump ahead of the injury-decimated Mavericks. After that, who knows?
Worst-case scenario: They don't even get the play-in tournament to distract them from the ominous offseason ahead
The Suns are barreling toward an offseason crossroads that could send multiple prominent members of the team packing.
Durant was thrown off by his name surfacing in trade talks, Beal would've been elsewhere already if not for his onerous no-trade clause, and it's hard to imagine coach Mike Budenholzer is safe given both the degree of disappointment and the slapdash style of their decision-making process.
That turmoil is almost certainly coming, so Phoenix could at least use the welcome distraction of a play-in trip ahead of it. But it will have to stack wins at some point for that to happen, and it's been failing on that front all season.
Portland Trail Blazers
25 of 30
Best-case scenario: Crashing the play-in party
This pluckier-than-expected Portland team has already won too much to wind up with anything other than long-shot hopes at the draft lottery.
So, rather than chasing losses now for what would almost certainly be a non-blue-chip prospect, the Blazers might as well play things out and expose their young roster to meaningful games in March and April.
The fact that they remain in this race maybe says more about the teams in front of them than the Blazers themselves, but that's fine. Those are the same imperfect teams standing between Portland and a potentially valuable learning experience.
Worst-case scenario: Potential keepers wilt under the pressure of trying to climb the standings
In order for the Blazers to pull this off, they'd need to leapfrog both the Mavericks and Suns.
While those teams have their issues, they also have established stars—assuming Dallas gets a healthy Anthony Davis back before the buzzer—while the Blazers do not.
It's possible Portland's young players rise to this occasion, but it's probably more likely it falls short. And the worry would be that players the Blazers could try to build around—Shaedon Sharpe, Scoot Henderson or even Anfernee Simons—just face-plant through this process and do noticeable damage to their own confidence and the club's belief in them.
Sacramento Kings
26 of 30
Best-case scenario: The roster rallies without an injured Domantas Sabonis and really hit its stride upon his return
Injuries are suddenly piling up for center Domantas Sabonis, which is obviously less than ideal for a team fighting to secure a play-in spot.
The three-time All-Star just lost six games to a hamstring injury and is now facing a week-plus absence after spraining his ankle in his second game back.
The Kings don't have to be doomed without him. Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan and Malik Monk can all help pick up the scoring and distributing slack, while Jonas Valančiūnas can handle the glass. If their production perks up in Sabonis' absence, perhaps he'll be rejoining a more complete and competitive club.
Worst-case scenario: Sabonis' injury lingers, and they lose their play-in spot
It would take a really rough closing stretch for Sacramento slip out of the play-in. Having said that, the Kings went just 2-4 without him, and they have one of the most difficult schedules remaining.
Things could still go sideways—the ball could get sticky without him, and perhaps their shot quality plummets if it does—and it's not like they're totally clear of the Mavs and Suns yet.
San Antonio Spurs
27 of 30
Best-case scenario: Stephon Castle claims Rookie of the Year honors, while Devin Vassell locks himself into the long-term plans
The Rookie of the Year award might already belong to Stephon Castle, but some stretch-run eruptions would close the conversation. Six of his 19 games with 20-plus points have come in March, so this would continue a trend rather than start a new one.
The 20-year-old looks like he'll be running alongside Victor Wembanyama for years.
Devin Vassell is hopefully on the verge of earning no-brainer building block status, too. His game is a snug fit, but he's also a logical candidate to be shipped out if San Antonio goes star-searching again.
If the 24-year-old goes berserk down the stretch, though, maybe he'll be off-limits by the offseason.
Worst-case scenario: It's all volume and no efficiency for the young core
The Spurs signaled their win-soon intentions with the February trade for De'Aaron Fox, and they might be winning right now had Wembanyama stayed healthy.
They could make another push to improve as soon as next season, so they need to know which members of their young core can contribute to winning.
Better shooting rates from Castle and Vassell would up their confidence in doing so. Ongoing offensive growth from Jeremy Sochan would do the same. That development isn't guaranteed, though, and this stretch run could feel like empty-calorie basketball without it.
Toronto Raptors
28 of 30
Best-case scenario: They boost their lottery odds while still finding chemistry-building minutes for Scottie Barnes and Immanuel Quickley
Toronto has too much talent to bottom out, but not so much that it can ignore potential prizes in the lottery.
So, it would behoove the Raptors to slow-play their way to the checkered flag in hopes of finishing behind both the Nets and 76ers in the standings.
What makes this extra tricky, though, is that Toronto still needs to find minutes for Scottie Barnes and Immanuel Quickley to grow their games together. That pair plus Brandon Ingram (sidelined for months by an ankle injury) form this franchise's foundation for the short- and potentially long-term, so the team needs to gauge how competitive this core can be without being too competitive.
Worst-case scenario: The Raptors don't gain clarity on their core or lose enough to improve their chances at the lottery
Quickley arrived in Toronto in Dec. 2023, but he has yet to reach the 70-game mark as a Raptor.
The 25-year-old needs more minutes with Toronto's nucleus, but what if he logs them and this team still fails to impress? What's the next step for a squad that has already made big financial commitments to this core?
This talent base probably needs to keep growing regardless what the healthy players show, but this team might need a miracle to sink further in the standings with the Sixers and Nets appearing fully committed to their respective tanks.
Utah Jazz
29 of 30
Best-case scenario: They maximize their draft lottery odds without ingraining the worst habits in young players
The tank was on in Salt Lake City before this season even tipped, and things have been a wild "success" on that front. The Jazz just might finish with the league's worst record, and the Wizards still exist. That's an accomplishment in the warped world of tanking.
The challenge for this franchise is not letting the funk from this season linger over the ones that follow. If key players are playing without consequences, that can have negative consequences down the line.
The Jazz need their core members to play the right way, and then they can limit their floor time enough that those right-way plays don't spoil the Flagg-capturing strategy.
Worst-case scenario: They aren't the league's worst team and can't figure out which young players, if any, are worth keeping
Few franchises feel more desperate for a lottery jackpot than the Jazz. They need high-end talent in the worst way, and that's triply true if they can't turn things around fast enough to justify keeping Lauri Markkanen.
It wasn't long ago that Keyonte George appeared to be a cornerstone in this rebuild. Now it's fair to wonder whether he'll ever be more than an inefficient and inconsistent volume scorer.
Anything that decreases Utah's odds of finding a difference-maker would hurt. Especially if it adds a meaningless win here or there from the contributions of players who clearly won't play prominent roles moving forward.
Washington Wizards
30 of 30
Best-case scenario: Alex Sarr stretches his offensive limits, and the losses keep stockpiling
The Wizards have a handful of young players to develop, but with Bilal Coulibaly potentially shelved by a hamstring injury, Alex Sarr's development takes precedence over the rest.
The Frenchman's defense already looks dynamic, but his offense has a long way to catch up. Hopefully, he at least sends a few signals about that being possible.
A neon-green light for Sarr, a 7-footer with a sub-40 field-goal percentage, won't spoil the ultimate strategy of losing larger than anyone.
The Wizards may not have the right centerpiece to anchor their rebuild, but that player might be available atop the 2025 draft. Washington must be fully focused on paving a path to that prospect.
Worst-case scenario: The Wizards win a couple meaningless games and deny themselves a jackpot prize at the lottery
There's a non-zero chance Washington winds up with this season's fourth-worst record. In fact, entering Wednesday night, they have just as many wins in their last 10 games (five) as the Hornets, Pelicans and Jazz combined.
Even with flattened lottery odds, standings position still matters. And if Washington doesn't remember that, it might fumble the chance to land a premier prospect.
Statistics used courtesy of NBA.com and Basketball-Reference and current through Tuesday's games.
