Khris Middleton's New Contract Shows Brand-New Value of 3-and-D in Today's NBA
Khris Middleton's new contract with the Milwaukee Bucks is a sign of things to come for the NBA's imperceptibly deep well of three-and-D talent.
A really, really, ridiculously good sign.
As first reported by ESPN.com's Marc Stein and later confirmed by CBS Sports' Ken Berger, the 23-year-old restricted free agent has agreed to a deal in the neighborhood of $70 million:
Big numbers attached to non-household names are scary at first glance. Middleton is working off two breakout campaigns, but he is not a superstar. He is not LeBron James or Kevin Love, Kawhi Leonard or Jimmy Butler. He doesn't even play the league's deepest and most important position (point guard).
He has posted an above-average player efficiency rating only once.
But this is a brand-spanking-new NBA, one that values versatility and spacing above all else as it speeds toward a salary-cap explosion for the record books.
That's the first part of all this: the impending cap boon. The initial shock and awe associated with any of this summer's extravagantly priced deals will inevitably subside, even if only partially, when put into proper context—something Alex Kennedy of Basketball Insiders implored the NBA universe at large to remember:
Middleton's new deal will pay him an average of $14 million per year. The actual dollar amounts will vary depending on contract structure, but that's a tidy benchmark.
Next season's salary cap sits at a projected $67.1 million, though it could end up reaching $69 million, according to Berger. If it stays at $67.1 million, Middleton's average salary will account for 20.9 percent of the Bucks' total spending power. And, on the surface, that's a lot.
One year from now, however, the cap will jump to $89 million, at which point Middleton's average income will represent just 15.7 percent of Milwaukee's purse.
Pitted against this year's salary ceiling, 15.7 percent is the equivalent of $10.5 million per year.
Skeptics, then, needn't fret. This is the new standard.
"There's no question, the norm is not the norm anymore," Mark Bartelstein, the chief executive of Priority Sports, a popular agency among NBA players, told Bleacher Report's Howard Beck. "Everything is going to change."
Still feeling uneasy?
If so, get used to it. Players like Middleton won't be getting any cheaper.
Take DeMarre Carroll, a player cut from Middleton's cloth. He landed an even fatter contract from the Toronto Raptors, per Wojnarowski:
Danny Green, also a premier three-and-D specimen, will put pen to paper on a lucrative deal of his own, according to ESPN.com's Chris Broussard:
Green's contract will pay him an average annual salary of $11.3 million. Though that's less than the average score of Carroll and Middleton, it's still pretty darn lucrative.
And yet, as SB Nation's Tom Ziller underscores, Green's pretty-darn-lucrative contract should still be viewed as an absolute steal:
"Danny Green might have just left $30-40 million on the table.
— Tom Triller (@teamziller) July 1, 2015"
This is not to say Middleton isn't special. He's unique in his own right.
At 6'7", with a wingspan approaching 7'0", he's able to function at three different positions on the offensive end: shooting guard, small forward and power forward. On the defensive end, he can guard any of the five slots.
Just check out his positional splits from the 2014-15 campaign (note that totals don't always add up to 100):
| Regular Season | N/A | 15 | 14 | 68 | 2 |
| Playoffs | N/A | 9 | 11 | 80 | N/A |
Few players boast this level of cross-position capacity. Playing two different positions is commonplace. Three is a bonus but not unprecedented.
Four is just silly.
There's nothing silly about Middleton's offensive role when on the floor—or, for that matter, particularly unheard of anymore.
It's not even just the 40.7 percent clip from downtown. It's what that outside accuracy implies: an ability to thrive while being stationed away from the action.
Almost 40 percent of Middelton's total shot attempts were catch-and-shoot opportunities last season. Most of those looks (71.2 percent) came from behind the rainbow. Middleton's already lights-out three-point rate climbed further in those situations, peaking at 42.3 percent.
Spot-up-heavy shot selections are indeed harbingers of limited offensive arsenals for some players. Not everyone can create for himself or operate as a featured scorer. But Middleton's shot selection is by design.
Milwaukee deploys two ball-dominant guards in Giannis Antetokounmpo and Michael Carter-Williams, neither of whom shot even 28 percent on standstill bombs. They need to have the rock in their hands, and those around them need to play off their on-ball action.
Complementing those offensive tendencies represents a large chunk of Middleton's value. That he also put in a respectable 42.2 percent of his pull-up jumpers, allowing him to play the part of a No. 1 option at times, drives it even higher. The rest of it lies on the defensive end.
Opponents shot just 39.5 percent when being guarded by Middleton last season. With the exception of going at him inside 10 feet of the basket, rival scorers failed to post an above-average clip from any major range:
Those perimeter splits are especially encouraging since Middleton spends most of his time guarding wings and stretch forwards. Opponents converted less than 33 percent of their three-pointers and shots outside 15 feet overall against him.
Vacillating between different positions didn't even kind-of-sort-of hurt Middleton's defensive results. He ranked second on the Bucks in defensive win shares and held opponents to below-board PERs at all five positions, according to 82games.com:
| Middleton's PER | 13.6 | 14.0 | 17.9 | 16.3 | 0 |
| Opponent PER | 3.2 | 11.5 | 9.8 | 11.3 | 0 |
| Net PER | 10.4 | 2.5 | 8.1 | 5.0 | 0 |
Still feeling a tad uneasy?
Well, at this point, that can only mean one thing. We'll defer to SI.com's Rob Mahoney here:
Some of these pricey pacts are gambles. Big ones. Players who sign them could become busts and subsequently immovable, even under the league's new salary cap.
Middleton isn't one of those candidates. Not now, not ever. He's a spitting image of an overwhelmingly popular—and therefore common—stereotype, sure.
But, as his contract shows, he's putting his own, in-demand spin on a craft the NBA has never valued more than it does now.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com unless otherwise cited. Salary information courtesy of Basketball Insiders.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @danfavale.
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