Chicago Bulls Go All-in on Jimmy Butler's Future with New Max Contract
The Chicago Bulls have officially done everything they can to assure Jimmy Butler remains their franchise cornerstone for as long as possible, as Eric Pincus of Basketball Insiders reported Monday:
Now all they can do is wait.
The Bulls' use of the maximum qualifying offer is unprecedented in the NBA's current collective bargaining agreement. It effectively removes any negotiating power from the team and hands all the leverage to the player.
UPDATE on July 1 at 2:30 p.m. ET by Adam Fromal
No longer are the Chicago Bulls just trying to ensure that Jimmy Butler remains in the Windy City for the next few years. According to Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski, the two sides are finalizing an agreement that would give the rising star as much money as possible:
Butler could've signed an offer sheet with a different organization, but Chicago would likely have matched any agreement, exercising the rights of first refusal it gained by extending him a qualifying offer and making him a restricted free agent.
Now, the Bulls are just circumventing that process, beating the NBA's other squads to the punch by making the initial offer. This All-Star is now going to keep wearing red.
--End of update--
Adi Joseph of Sporting News outlined how, despite sapping a team's leverage, the max qualifying offer is still a useful tool in circumstances like these: "The Bulls limited Butler's options severely by taking advantage of the rule, which does not allow Butler to sign an offer sheet with another team for fewer than three guaranteed years."
Chicago brought out the big guns.
Though nobody has done it before, the Bulls' decision was a no-brainer, because a rising salary cap—projected to hit $89 million next summer and $108 million in 2017, as Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress noted—means that a max offer today is a bargain tomorrow.
As the cap rises, Butler's potential max salary would take up a progressively shrinking percentage of the cap—even with the 7.5 percent annual raises such a deal would provide him.
Well Worth the Cash
Butler's play shows he's clearly worth what the Bulls are offering, as Bleacher Report's Jared Dubin detailed recently. He's Chicago's best player on both ends, having led the Bulls last year with 8.2 offensive win shares, according to Basketball-Reference.com, while defending the opponent's top wing scorer.
The league's Most Improved Player last year also earned his second consecutive All-Defensive Second Team nod while being an efficient offensive weapon. Only two other players in the league, James Harden and Russell Westbrook, matched Butler's 2014-15 totals of 1,301 points, 386 made free throws and 73 made three-pointers.
The Bulls simply can't replace him on either end, which is exactly why they've prioritized keeping him.
"The most important pieces of our summer are retaining the guys we have—Jimmy Butler, Mike Dunleavy," Bulls general manager Gar Forman told K.C. Johnson of the Chicago Tribune. "After that, there won't be a lot of flexibility."
As Joseph explained earlier, Chicago's extension of the max qualifying offer means that no other team can sign Butler to an offer sheet for fewer than three guaranteed years. If Butler wants any kind of long-term security, it will only come with the Bulls this summer.
A Risky Proposition
There's an alternative, though: Butler could take a one-year qualifying offer from the Bulls (which they simultaneously extended with the max qualifying offer) and enter unrestricted free agency in 2016.
It's difficult to comprehend the stress of passing up a guaranteed $90 million in favor of just $4.4 million on a one-year agreement—especially after Butler watched Derrick Rose's series of injuries highlight the value of long-term security, and especially considering that Butler has made just $5.2 million in his four-year career to date.
But he gambled last summer, passing up a reported four-year, $44 million extension, per Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times.
That move paid off, but now Butler would have to surrender twice that amount by turning down the Bulls' latest entreaty.
Could he really walk away from the kind of money that could sustain his family for multiple generations?
An even bigger future payoff makes the concept sound slightly less crazy.
Zach Lowe of Grantland explained:
"A max deal for Butler signed a year from now, with the cap at $90 million, would start at around $21 million—a massive jump. Butler could play out one season with the Bulls, sign a four-year deal next summer with another team, and make about $4 million more over that five-year period than he would re-signing with Chicago for the long haul now. That kind of upside just didn’t exist in a normal cap environment.
"
Enticing as that is, we've simply never seen a player pass up a max-contract offer. If Butler does it, braving the possibility of injury and leaving that kind of cash on the table, the U.S. military should see if he's willing to take up explosive ordnance disposal on the side.
Risk clearly doesn't scare him.
The Middle Way
There's a compromise available that might suit both parties well.
Butler can sign a three-year deal with another team, then wait for the Bulls to inevitably match. That way, he can make max money through the 2017-18 season, hit free agency while still in his prime and then collect another huge deal.
Security and freedom, all in one.
The max qualifying offer is absolutely strategic, but it's also symbolic.
The Bulls are telling Butler they're ready to commit as much money to him as the CBA allows—no questions asked—which is exactly how a team should treat its most important player. Now there's no doubt on Butler's part about where he stands in Chicago's hierarchy.
Rose may still be wildly popular, but there's no way Chicago would offer him $90 million in guaranteed money today.
The Bulls don't belong to Rose anymore. Joakim Noah is a shell of himself. Tom Thibodeau is gone.
Butler's the guy now. And as he goes, Chicago goes.
It's up to him how much cash he'll take on the journey.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com. Salary information courtesy of Basketball Insiders.
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
