The New Jersey Devils' 2015 Free-Agency Primer
Beginning on July 1, NHL teams can start signing unrestricted free agents in hopes of adding those crucial one or two players who can help spark a run to the Stanley Cup.
In fairness, the New Jersey Devils are probably more than just one or two good free-agent signings from being title contenders, but the right moves could at least make Ray Shero's team competitive next season.
Devils fans surely enter this important time of the year with many questions. What might the right moves for New Jersey look like? How much salary-cap flexibility does Shero, the team's new general manager, have to work with? What players are available in free agency to help move the Devils forward?
This free-agency primer will aim to answer those questions and more.
What the Devils Are Looking for
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Ever since Ilya Kovalchuk left the Devils following the lockout-shortened 2012-13 season, team president and former general manager Lou Lamoriello had relied on free agency to try to cover up the expanding holes in an aging, struggling team. For the most part, it did not work.
Lamoriello brought in Michael Ryder, Jaromir Jagr and Ryane Clowe, whose average age at the time was 34.6 years old, ahead of the 2013-14 season. Ryder's time in New Jersey was a plain disaster. Jagr did well but showed signs of age in his second season with the team before being traded. Clowe has continued to have concussion issues in New Jersey, and his career is likely over.
In short, Lamoriello's plan to bring in aging goal scorers was an unsuccessful one.
It seems that Shero does not plan to follow in Lamoriello's footsteps. To Tom Gulitti of Fire and Ice, Shero said of free agency, "I certainly don't think that's going to be the avenue we're building a team..."
This is not to say that Shero has no interest in signing any free agents, but rather that it cannot be the primary means by which the Devils right the ship.
After the draft, Shero summed up his mentality on free agency to Gulitti:
"Adding Kyle Palmieri has filled a hole for us on the right side that certainly was somewhat glaring, so we'll continue to look at that whether it's through free agency or maybe even the trade route, but with free agency maybe to supplement our forward group a little bit. Maybe we'll take a look at available defensemen, but pretty much committed to kind of going with these younger players to a certain extent and seeing what they can do. Palmieri kind of fits that mold. But, if there's a certain player, (in) free agency at the right age that makes sense for us we think can make a difference for us over the next few years we'll certainly look at that.
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He added this about the available free agents:
"Overpriced, probably, but that's the way it is with free agency now. But, sometimes it's not, particularly with guys on those one-year deals. You try to identify those value type players and maybe it's a one-year deal like that that might feel a need in a certain role or how we want to play, so we'll look at those guys as well.
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Perhaps the three biggest takeaways from these comments are that Shero is committed to giving his young players a chance, the age of the potential free-agent acquisition is important and he may feel that the best value in free agency comes from role players who would come in on one-year deals.
Who the Devils Are Keeping and (Probably) Letting Go
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Of course, the free-agency period does not consist of solely one-way traffic. The Devils have a number of players who are eligible for free agency, and the team has now reached a decision on most players.
According to Gulitti, Shero has extended qualifying offers to most of the Devils' restricted free agents, most notably Adam Larsson, Eric Gelinas and Stefan Matteau. It is still unclear exactly how much the Devils will pay those players, but it all but assures that they will be back in New Jersey next season.
2011 third-round pick Blake Coleman and 2014-15 Albany Devils leading goal scorer Joe Whitney both cannot be signed before July 1, but Gulitti wrote that all signs point to the Devils signing both players.
Michael Ryder and Martin Havlat are unrestricted free agents, but they will not be returning to New Jersey after a poor 2014-15. Perhaps more surprisingly, Scott Gomez will also not be returning to New Jersey.
Shero said of letting Gomez go, per Gulitti:
"The good thing is all of the guys wanted to come back. Scott's been a great Devil. This really isn't about Scott Gomez. This is more about Josefson and what we can find out about his development. Now, we draft Zacha. How are you going to give Zacha an opportunity to see where he is in training camp if you don't have any positions available. So, it's more not about those players in particular. It's more about giving other guys an opportunity and where we want to go and getting younger and a little different type of team.
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New Jersey will not re-sign Steve Bernier, Peter Harrold and Mark Fraser as well. Shero left the door open for each of those players to return later in the free-agency period if it makes sense for both parties, but it seems the chances of that are relatively slim.
Where the Devils Stand with the Salary Cap
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Like every team in the NHL, the Devils' potential moves are limited by the salary cap. The good news for New Jersey is that the team has a lot of cap space to work with.
The salary cap for the 2015-16 NHL season will be $71.4 million. According to War-on-Ice.com, New Jersey is set to spend $47.6 million on the 14 one-way contracts it has on the books, including the contract of recently acquired Kyle Palmieri. Assuming that Jon Merrill and Damon Severson, who are still both on two-way contracts, spend the season in the NHL, we have to add another $1.4 million to that number.
That would give the Devils $49 million in contracts, but that number is artificially low. Assuming that the restricted free agents (Larsson, Gelinas and Matteau) sign for somewhere between $1 million and $2 million per year each, the Devils will have $53 million to $56 million spent. Additionally, players like Sergey Kalinin, Vojtech Mozik, Reid Boucher and newly drafted Pavel Zacha could all wind up on the NHL roster and therefore count against the salary cap as well.
For the sake of argument, I will assume such players will add around $2 million to New Jersey's salary cap. That allows for two to three of those players to be on the NHL roster at a time. It seems unlikely that all of them would be in the NHL simultaneously but just as unlikely that none of them are there, so $2 million covers the middle ground.
Therefore, the Devils would have between $55 million and $58 million counting against the salary cap, leaving them between $13.4 million and $16.4 million of cap space.
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Defensemen the Devils Could Add
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The Devils have a lot of young players on the blue line but are short on proven NHL talent. Andy Greene is the veteran leader of New Jersey's defense corps, but no other player has more than one solid NHL season under his belt.
Adam Larsson had a stellar final two-thirds of 2014-15, but he struggled to break into the lineup before that. Jon Merrill had a solid 2013-14, but he had a miserable minus-14 rating and generally difficult season in 2014-15.
Damon Severson surprised many by starting last season on the Devils' top-defense pairing with Greene but failed to replicate that form after returning from an injury that kept him out for 31 games. Eric Gelinas, who has played in at least 60 games in each of the last two seasons, has yet to prove he can defend well enough to be an everyday player.
So, the Devils could benefit from adding one or more experienced defensemen for two reasons. First, such a player would be an upgrade in terms of talent from New Jersey's current options at the bottom of the depth chart. Second, the Devils' glut of young defensemen would benefit from having a veteran to learn from during the crucial formative years of their careers.
The following defensemen might fit the role and price range the Devils are looking for:
| Name | Age at Start of 2015-16 Season | 2014-15 Team | 2014-15 Cap Hit |
| Christian Ehrhoff | 33 | Pittsburgh Penguins | $4 million |
| Barret Jackman | 34 | St. Louis Blues | $3.167 million |
| Paul Martin | 34 | Pittsburgh Penguins | $5 million |
| Johnny Oduya | 34 | Chicago Blackhawks | $3.375 million |
Christian Ehrhoff
The Good: He has more offensive talent than any other defenseman in this group and is a year younger than the other options. His potential to add 10-15 goals and 20-30 assists would be a huge asset for an offensively strapped team.
The Bad: He missed 33 games because of injury in 2014-15, at least some of which were due to a concussion. The Devils got burned after taking a chance on Ryane Clowe, who also had a history of concussions, and may be hesitant to put themselves in a similar situation. Ehrhoff's best offensive season since 2010-11 came in 2013-14, when he picked up only six goals and 33 points. His offensive struggles may have come as a result of playing on a poor team in Buffalo, but the numbers are still concerning.
Barret Jackman
The Good: He is a reliable defensive defenseman, possibly making him a good partner for an offensive-minded young defenseman like Gelinas or Severson. Jackman will probably come at the lowest financial cost of any of these players.
The Bad: Jackman will contribute little offensively. He has never had much speed, and at 34 years old, he will surely only get slower. He is at a similar stage in his career to Anton Volchenkov and Bryce Salvador when they came to New Jersey and could face a similar regression if kept around for more than a couple of years.
Paul Martin
The Good: He is the best two-way defenseman of this bunch. While he is not an offensive powerhouse, he moves well and is a decent passer, in addition to being solid in his own zone.
The Bad: Martin will probably be the most expensive option to bring in. Though he played 74 games this season, there are lingering injury concerns after he missed chunks of the 2012-13 and 2013-14 season. If the price turns out to be high, the risk of his suffering another injury may outweigh the reward of having him on the team and healthy.
Johnny Oduya
The Good: He knows how to win. Oduya has won two Stanley Cups in his last three seasons with the Chicago Blackhawks. That kind of winning experience is good to have around young players. Oduya is quite durable and has missed little time because of injury over the course of his career. His contract demands likely would not be too high.
The Bad: He will not contribute a significant amount on offense. Oduya spent the last three years with top defenders like Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook and Niklas Hjalmarsson, so his ability to play with lesser players may be in question.
Note: All 2014-15 cap-hit totals are courtesy of Spotrac.com.
Forwards the Devils Could Add
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Though the Devils' need for forwards is much more desperate than their need for defenders, there are fewer decent options in this free-agent class at forward than at defenseman.
Of course, part of that is due to the fact that the Devils are looking for younger players at forward and older players, who tend to be easier to find, at defense. Regardless, this free-agent class is generally thin, which means that the few decent players in it will likely be overpaid.
Shero's decisions on which players not to re-sign may provide some insight into his thought process regarding signing free-agent forwards. First, Shero noted that his desire to give chances to Jacob Josefson and Pavel Zacha played a role in his decision to let Scott Gomez go. So, it seems safe to assume that Shero is not looking to add a center, unless the deal is particularly stunning.
Second, by letting Steve Bernier go, Shero made clear that he is not interested in average forwards in their early 30s. A number of players are comparable to Bernier in the free-agent market, but it seems unlikely that Shero would try to sign one given his choice on Bernier.
So, we know that the GM is not looking closely at centers and that age plays a significant factor in his considerations. That leaves wingers who are younger than 30, which is a thin group in this year's free-agent class.
These are the few players who may fit that narrow description:
| Name | Age at Start of 2015-16 Season | 2014-15 Team | 2014-15 Cap Hit |
| Matt Beleskey | 27 | Anaheim Ducks | $1.35 million |
| Michael Frolik | 27 | Winnipeg Jets | $3.3 million |
| Drew Stafford | 30 | Winnipeg Jets | $4 million |
Matt Beleskey
The Good: Beleskey put up a career-best 22 goals last season and then added eight in 16 games in the playoffs, proving he can score against the NHL's best. He has decent speed and the ability to finish, both of which the Devils need.
The Bad: He is arguably the best option in a weak free-agent class, Beleskey is going to demand a lot of money, which he may or may not actually be worth. Last season was his first season of 20-plus goals, so it could have been a fluke that came about by playing with Ryan Kesler for most of the season.
Michael Frolik
The Good: He can score, set up goals and skate well. He is not amazing in any of those categories, but he would be a definite upgrade over anything else the Devils have at right wing. If he could continue to be a player who averages 40 points per season, he'd be a solid asset.
The Bad: Like Beleskey, Frolik is the best of a mediocre bunch and will cost a team a considerable sum. He has had issues with consistency throughout his career.
Drew Stafford
The Good: Stafford has the longest history of offensive contribution of any of these players. After struggling with the dreadful Buffalo Sabres, he was traded to the Winnipeg Jets at the end of the 2014-15 season, where he picked up nine goals and 10 assists in 26 games. So, he has shown that he can still contribute on decent teams.
The Bad: He will turn 30 at the end of October. His consistency is questionable, though whether that was because of Stafford or the Buffalo team he played on is somewhat unclear. As was the case with the above players, teams will have to overpay to have a chance at signing him.
Note: All 2014-15 cap-hit totals are courtesy of Spotrac.com.
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