Predicting the Last 5 In, Last 5 Out for Green Bay Packers' Final 53-Man Roster
Any final 53-man roster predictions before the Green Bay Packers begin training camp on July 30 is inherently subject to change. Injuries can and will occur that will change the pecking order at certain positions, and players on the wrong side of the roster bubble will find that they can change their fortunes with a stellar performance during camp.
However, it's still a valuable exercise as we move past the end of minicamp and into a period of inactivity to take stock of the players currently on the Packers' 90-man roster and pinpoint which ones will be right on the bubble come final cuts.
Many players are locks for the roster. But every summer there are surprise cuts and scrappy players who fight their way onto the squad. We'll take a look at 10 players in position to do just that, identifying five who could survive the cut and five who would be the next men up if Green Bay just had a few extra spots.
In: G Matt Rotheram
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One of the Packers' most promising undrafted rookies, expect guard Matt Rotheram out of Pittsburgh to round out Green Bay's offensive line unit this August.
Rotheram should make the roster behind David Bakhtiari, Josh Sitton, Corey Linsley, T.J. Lang, Bryan Bulaga, J.C. Tretter and Don Barclay.
That gives the Packers better depth at guard—where Tretter and Barclay could also slot in behind Lang and Sitton if needed—than at tackle, but Rotheram benefits from the fact that general manager Ted Thompson did not draft an offensive lineman this year.
This prediction assumes that Rotheram makes the roster over Lane Taylor, a former undrafted free agent himself who beat the odds to make Green Bay's 53-man roster, but Rotheram is bigger (6'5", 325 lbs) and younger.
Rotheram played right tackle in 2011-12 at Pittsburgh and then moved to right guard in 2013-14. His size made him a huge asset to Pitt's rushing game.
It's hard to imagine Rotheram clearing waivers to be placed on Green Bay's practice squad, so if the Packers want him to be part of their future plans, they'll have to give him a spot on the 53-man roster.
In: RB John Crockett
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Presuming the Packers keep five running backs, including both halfbacks and fullbacks, on the 53-man roster, they'll have a difficult choice to make.
Keeping two fullbacks in veteran John Kuhn and rookie Aaron Ripkowski seems a bit of a luxury, but the Packers will rely on another year of Kuhn lead-blocking for Eddie Lacy, while Ripkowski learns the offense and contributes on special teams or is a game-day inactive.
That leaves the Packers room for three halfbacks, and Lacy's and James Starks' spots are a given. The third spot will come down to a training-camp battle between undrafted rookies John Crockett and Alonzo Harris and practice-squad holdover Rajion Neal.
At North Dakota State, Crockett had three consecutive seasons of 1,000-plus rushing yards, and in his senior year he set school records for all-purpose yards (2,419), rushing yards (1,994) and rushing attempts (368).
Crockett is an extremely promising undrafted rookie and would never last on the Packers' practice squad. They like Neal, which helps explain why they didn't draft a running back with any of their eight selections. But though he has a leg up on his competitors with a year in Green Bay's system, the Packers could lose Crockett forever if they don't make room for him on the 53-man roster.
The big obstacle standing in Crockett's way is that on the first day of practice at mandatory minicamp, he injured his ankle and dropped out of practice, as ESPN.com's Rob Demovsky reported at the time.
However, Crockett expects to be "ready to go when the time comes," per Packer Report's Bill Huber.
In: LB Tavarus Dantzler
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The Packers can get more out of their 53-man roster by keeping players who can be versatile contributors for them. Linebacker and undrafted rookie Tavarus Dantzler is just such a player, with a diverse skill set that could allow him to play on the inside or the outside.
Dantzler played outside linebacker at Bethune-Cookman, where he had 175 tackles, 19 tackles for loss, 2.5 sacks, five pass breakups, five forced fumbles and three fumble recoveries as a three-year starter.
But expect him to round out the Packers' group at inside linebacker, where he's projected to join Sam Barrington, Jake Ryan and Carl Bradford (and Clay Matthews) on the final roster.
Dantzler's workout numbers are eye-catching and helped him land in Green Bay despite going undrafted. He ran a 4.61-second 40-yard dash, posted a 35 ½-inch vertical leap and has 34 ½-inch arms, per the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel's Tyler Dunne.
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In: CB LaDarius Gunter
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In order to keep six cornerbacks in this roster projection, the Packers have to only keep four safeties—but again, versatility is key here. The Packers have made sure to bring plenty of athletic playmakers into the secondary, many of whom played different positions in college than what they'll play in Green Bay.
With Morgan Burnett, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, Micah Hyde and Sean Richardson holding down the fort at safety, the Packers could retain the following six cornerbacks: Sam Shields, Casey Hayward, Damarious Randall, Quinten Rollins, Demetri Goodson and LaDarius Gunter.
NFL.com projected Gunter to be selected in Round 4 or 5 of the draft, but in a draft-day surprise he went undrafted.
That may be due in part to Gunter's 4.69-second 40-yard dash at the NFL combine, but he improved that to 4.66 and 4.64 seconds at his pro day. Any team scouting Gunter on workouts alone missed the playmaker who shows up on film.
Gunter had a productive career at Miami, with 111 total tackles, three tackles for loss, one forced fumble, 18 pass breakups and six interceptions. He'll be a special teams gunner in 2015 with an opportunity to contribute more after he establishes himself.
In: LB Jayrone Elliott
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The Packers need to retain and develop young players who could turn into future starters at outside linebacker, a position that will be losing some of its prowess with Clay Matthews moving inside on running downs and Julius Peppers potentially too expensive to keep after the 2015 season.
Elliott joins Matthews, Peppers, Mike Neal and Nick Perry at the position, leaving the Packers room to keep four inside linebackers not counting Matthews.
Last preseason Elliott, who was trying to make the team as an undrafted rookie, notched more sacks (five) in four games than any player in the league, including veterans. His impressive performance did not go unrewarded, landing him a spot on the 53-man roster.
The regular season was not as productive for Elliott. He only got 54 snaps, per Pro Football Focus, and didn't record any sacks, but he was a key special teams contributor. He had the second most special teams tackles on the team last season.
Elliott has a bright future in Green Bay once there are more snaps to go around for him. His inclusion on this projection means that Adrian Hubbard doesn't make the final roster, but there may be a spot for him on the practice squad.
Out: DT Lavon Hooks
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Lavon Hooks is one of the really promising undrafted rookies whom the Packers would definitely include on the 53-man roster if only they had just a few more spots at their disposal. However, defensive line talent is always a worthwhile investment, and Hooks is a candidate for the practice squad.
At Ole Miss, Hooks lined up both at defensive tackle and, surprisingly, tight end, demonstrating his sheer athleticism. Hooks had 27 tackles, nine tackles for a loss and three sacks in college.
Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com reported he got snaps with the No. 2 defense during 11-on-11 drills. However, with Green Bay only likely to keep six defensive linemen, there just doesn't seem to be a spot for the undrafted rookie behind B.J. Raji, Mike Daniels, Datone Jones, Letroy Guion, Josh Boyd and Mike Pennel.
The Packers may feel they have enough depth at nose tackle behind Raji in Guion and elect to cut Pennel, which would make room for a player such as Hooks. However, Guion and Raji are both only on one-year deals, and it's unlikely both will be back in 2016, which would make having a young nose tackle with experience on the roster a major plus.
Out: TE Justin Perillo
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Tight end and former undrafted free agent Justin Perillo was promoted to the Packers' active roster in November 2014 after a productive college career at the University of Maine.
After the Packers cut Brandon Bostick this offseason, Perillo theoretically could have moved up to fill his No. 3 spot on the depth chart behind Andrew Quarless and Richard Rodgers.
However, given that they will likely keep six wide receivers and two fullbacks on the final roster, the Packers have to make a sacrifice somewhere, and it may mean that only three tight ends make the 53-man roster.
If that is the case, general manger Ted Thompson, who usually keeps his draft picks, would likely retain rookie Kennard Backman over Perillo.
Perillo played 11 snaps in 2014, per Pro Football Focus.
Out: WR Myles White
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Wide receiver is shaping up to be one of the deepest positions on the Packers' roster, and for that reason practice-squad holdover and former undrafted free agent Myles White looks like he'll just miss the cutoff for the final roster.
White was promoted to the Packers' active roster in the seventh week of his rookie year in 2013, catching nine passes for 66 yards. He was back on the practice squad in 2014 as the Packers only went with five receivers.
Green Bay will very likely keep six receivers on the final roster in 2015, but that doesn't necessarily open a spot for White. After projected top three Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb and Davante Adams, the Packers will look at second-year players Jeff Janis and Jared Abbrederis and rookie Ty Montgomery.
White ends up on the wrong side of the bubble along with undrafted rookies Javess Blue, Ricky Collins, Adrian Coxson, Jimmie Hunt and Larry Pinkard.
At least one of the players in that group will make the practice squad.
Out: LB Adrian Hubbard
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Former UDFA Adrian Hubbard is the player who could be the 54th player on a 54-man roster, if only such a thing existed.
After spending last season on the practice squad, Hubbard spent the offseason training in Green Bay, which earned the respect of head coach Mike McCarthy.
"He's really taken a huge step like you see from every player that's been here from Year 1 going into Year 2," McCarthy said in May, per Tyler Dunne, formerly of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. "I'm impressed with what Hubbard has done so far. He was here early prior to the offseason program. He's put a lot of work in."
Behind Matthews, Peppers, Perry and Mike Neal, however, the Packers will have an extremely tough decision to make. Retaining Hubbard on the 53-man roster would mean that Elliott would be cut or sent to the practice squad.
Given the impression he made across the league leading all NFL players in sacks last preseason, it's likely a handful of other teams would notice Elliott sitting on the practice squad. That makes it just a little easier to cut Hubbard.
If the Packers have room for six outside linebackers on the final roster, expect Hubbard to round out the group.
Out: DT Khyri Thornton
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Khyri Thornton would be potentially the most shocking cut on this list if he doesn't make the 53-man roster. He was a third-round draft pick in 2014 and was only having a so-so training camp before a hamstring injury landed him on injured reserve.
Essentially taking a redshirt year, Thornton has the opportunity in training camp to prove he deserves to be one of what will likely be six defensive linemen the Packers keep on the final roster, but the odds are stacked against him.
In the base 3-4 defense, there are the presumed starters: nose tackle B.J. Raji and ends Mike Daniels and Datone Jones. Then there's Josh Boyd, who can play either end position, and Letroy Guion, who can both back up Raji and earn snaps in defensive sub-packages. There's also rookie Christian Ringo, whom general manager Ted Thompson will want to give a fair look.
That makes things very difficult for Thornton, whose play in camp last year didn't match his draft position.
No general manager wants to throw in the towel on a third-round pick in his second season. But Thornton, whom NFL.com projected to be selected in Round 5 or 6, was a gamble by Thompson to begin with, and he may need to cut his losses this summer.
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