Realistic Expectations for Stanley Johnson's Rookie Season with Detroit Pistons

During the NBA draft, most teams have to decide between the best available player and the one who best fills a need.

But the Detroit Pistons feel the eighth overall selection, Stanley Johnson, gave them a third option: both of the above.

The former Arizona Wildcats star can slide his chiseled 6'7", 242-pound frame right into Detroit's massive void at the small forward slot. The Pistons will still need to address the position in free agency, but with Johnson, they are on the way to scratching that itch.

Johnson isn't expected to start as a rookie, according to Vince Ellis of the Detroit Free Press, who added that the team "plans to target a small forward during the free-agency period."

But that roster hole isn't what led the Pistons to Johnson.

"We thought he was the best player on the board," head coach and president of basketball operations Stan Van Gundy said, per Pistons.com's Keith Langlois.

Are you excited yet, Pistons fans? You should be. The league's annual talent grab is always a fertile source of optimism, and Johnson's per-game marks from his lone season of college ball do nothing to curb that enthusiasm: 13.8 points on 44.6 percent shooting, 6.5 rebounds, 1.7 steals and 1.5 assists in 28.4 minutes.

But once the draft moves into the rearview mirror, the 60 players selected enter basketball's real world. In other words, it's time to stop being blinded by excitement and start laying out some realistic expectations.

Johnson isn't likely to wow anyone on the stat sheet out of the gate.

His box scores weren't all that crazy in college, and there will be more mouths to feed in Motown than there were in Tucson. The Pistons will force-feed Andre Drummond all the touches he can handle and buy the big man some breathing room by leaning heavily on the perimeter shooting abilities of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Jodie Meeks and newcomer Ersan Ilyasova.

If Reggie Jackson returns from restricted free agency, he'll have his fingerprints on an abundance of offensive possessions. Ditto for Brandon Jennings when he recovers from his torn Achilles (provided the Pistons don't trade the hobbled point guard).

As far as scoring goes, Johnson will likely settle into a complementary role. Bleacher Report's Adam Fromal pegged Johnson's rookie year numbers at 10.0 points and 1.7 assists per game, and both of those feel about right for what Pistons fans should expect.

But if you're planning on viewing Johnson's debut campaign on one end of the floor, the offensive side isn't where you should look. Defensively, he has the physical tools and mental makeup to be an impact player from Day 1. The Pistons, which wrapped up this campaign ranked 21st in defensive efficiency, should be glad to give him that opportunity.

"I should be able to produce right away for the team," Johnson said, per Ellis. "Coach Van Gundy wants me to compete. He wants me to be a dog, like I am."

Carlos Osorio/Associated Press

Nastiness is a requirement for defensive success at this level, and Johnson has it in spades.

Dubbed the "Stanimal" by his Wildcats teammates, per ESPN.com's Myron Medcalf, Johnson is a bully once he steps inside the lines. According to MLive.com's David Mayo, the rookie's favorite former Pistons player is, fittingly, Bill Laimbeer, the old lead villain from the "Bad Boys" teams that took home back-to-back titles in 1989 and 1990.

Johnson's toughness will be key, given the likelihood that he'll handle multiple defensive assignments. Strong enough to bang on the low block and quick enough to chase guards around the perimeter, he's the type of jack-of-all-trades defender that NBA teams crave now more than ever.

That well-rounded skill set is what put him in such a lofty position on the Pistons' draft board in the first place.

"We loved his versatility, No. 1," Van Gundy said, per Mayo. "And No. 2, we really liked his mentality. The more we talked to people, we became very confident that this was a guy who was driven to be great—not just talking about it, but will put the work in to do it."

Van Gundy wasn't kidding about the confidence:

And those people weren't lying about Johnson's full-throttle drive, either.

His blue-collar mentality is infectious and perfect for his new basketball home. Johnson was born in California, but he sounds like he was manufactured in the Motor City.

"It's Detroit versus everybody," he said, according to Noah Trister of the Associated Press. "I've always had a chip on my shoulder since I started playing basketball, where I thought it was me versus the world."

Johnson's activity on both the defensive end and the glass will be his primary ticket to playing time. But the quantity of those minutes will be determined by how well his offensive game can adapt to the big stage.

He's a terror in the open court and a serviceable shot-creator for himself and his teammates. But what everyone is anxious to see is whether he can light the lamp consistently and efficiently from deep.

As DraftExpress' Jonathan Givony explained, Johnson made strides as a perimeter shooter at Arizona, but his track record is still a bit murky in that department:

"

Johnson was not considered a great shooter coming into college, only making 82 of 279 3-point attempts (29%) in the nearly 2300 minutes of game-action we have on record for him prior to Arizona. ... In spite of that, he impressed with his ability to make shots as a freshman, hitting 41 of his 111 3-point attempts on the season (37%), and showing a much quicker release and more compact mechanics than he had displayed earlier in his career, both shooting off the dribble (he converted 49% of his pull-ups in the half-court) and with his feet set (44% catch and shoot).

"

Johnson was also a 74.2 percent foul shooter with the Wildcats, and he converted 44.4 percent of his two-point jump shots, per Hoop-Math.com. His shooting form still needs improvement—Van Gundy said that "there's a few corrections we need to make," per Langlois—but Johnson can contribute in a number of different ways.

If there's a bigger concern than his three-point shooting, it's not one most would expect.

His NBA-ready body is bolstered by speed and strength, but questions remain about his athleticism.

"He isn't very explosive from a vertical standpoint, and had a tough time adjusting to the physicality of the college game, simply trying to beast his way through defenders like he was usually able to in high school," Givony wrote.

Johnson shot just 52.7 percent at the rim this past season, per Hoop-Math.com. For context, 124 NBA players attempted at least 200 shots inside the restricted area during the 2014-15 campaign. All but nine of them converted at least 53 percent of those attempts.

If running over defenders didn't work in the college game, it's definitely not the right approach to handle bigger, stronger and more skilled stoppers at this level. If Johnson struggles from both distance and point-blank range, he'll be forced to do his damage in the dreaded mid-range, a dead zone in today's analytically driven league.

He has some warts, but good luck finding a 19-year-old prospect who doesn't. Plus, his perimeter success rate is trending in the right direction, and his interior issues didn't prevent him from attempting 6.6 free throws per 40 minutes.

As a rookie, Johnson will likely follow the same pattern he developed at Arizona: produce in a lot of different categories but not dominate any particular one. He projects to be more of a solid role player than a star, but those aforementioned competitive juices could allow him to push his ceiling above its current level.

Johnson won't move the Pistons out of rebuilding mode, but he'll help them to keep moving in the right direction. If he can validate their confidence in him (or his own), he could even accelerate the process.

Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.

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