San Francisco 49ers: Which Rookie Will Contribute the Most in 2015?
The San Francisco 49ers’ rookie class isn’t likely to make too much of an impact in 2015. Despite the exodus of talent the 49ers have faced this offseason, they have replacements waiting in the wings at almost every position, be it free-agent acquisitions such as Torrey Smith, longtime backups such as Michael Wilhoite or a draft pick from last year such as Carlos Hyde.
That doesn’t leave a lot of room for rookies to make an immediate impact.
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Last year, fourth-round pick Dontae Johnson actually led the 49ers in rookie snaps with 704, according to Football Outsiders. Not only was he slid into the defensive lineup more and more as the season went on, but he also played on nearly half of the special teams’ snaps in 2014. As such, he ended up playing more snaps than stars such as Justin Smith or Frank Gore, who generally did not play on special teams.
Most impact for the 2015 rookie class will probably come on special teams at first, but there is a chance for some players to work their way into rotational roles as the season progresses. Next year’s snap-count leader might be a player such as Johnson, who contributes both in sub packages and on special teams.
Here’s a quick ranking of the 49ers’ 2015 rookie class in terms of who has the best chance to get the most snaps. Obviously, there’s a lot that makes it hard to project—injuries thrust Johnson into the lineup but kept Jimmie Ward from contributing much. Don’t think of this as ranking the ultimate snap count 1 to 10—think of it as trying to determine who has the best chances of getting a lot of snaps.
10. TE Rory Anderson
The 49ers are loaded at tight end at the moment. Rory Anderson might be, at best, the fifth tight end on the depth chart at the moment behind Vernon Davis, Vance McDonald, Derek Carrier and Blake Bell. There’s also no guarantee he could pass Garrett Celek or Asante Cleveland at this point.
Anderson has almost no chance of making the 53-man roster, meaning the odds for him to receive any snaps are high. The competition at his position, combined with his status as one of the last picks in the draft, pretty much writes him off immediately.
9. WR DeAndre Smelter
DeAndre Smelter has some interesting potential in the NFL, but he’s still recovering from an ACL tear he suffered in his final year in college. While not nearly as bad as, say, Marcus Lattimore’s knee injury, Smelter will only be 10 months removed from the tear when the season starts, so it’s unlikely he’ll be ready for training camp.
While it’s possible Smelter becomes available at some point this season, it’s more likely he spends the year on the NFI list, learning the team and system without participating on field.
8. OG Ian Silberman
Ian Silberman’s odds of making the team improved when Anthony Davis surprisingly retired at the start of June, which is why he's listed above Smelter. Silberman could be a guard or tackle in the NFL, giving him some potential for backup duties. He’s very much a developmental prospect, however, and it’s still more likely he ends up on the practice squad.
7. RB Mike Davis
We’re now getting to the players with a real chance of making the final roster yet will be buried on the depth chart. Mike Davis is a very intriguing prospect down the road. He rushed for over 1,100 yards at South Carolina in 2013, and he’s a weapon out of the backfield in the passing game to boot.
He’s firmly behind Carlos Hyde and Reggie Bush and likely Kendall Hunter on the depth chart, however, and the 49ers don’t usually use running backs on special teams unless they’re returning kicks or punts. Davis might get some goal-line snaps, but he’s unlikely to see any significant action as a rookie.
6. P Bradley Pinion
Bradley Pinion is the only 49er guaranteed a starting spot; he’s the only punter on the roster now that Andy Lee has been traded to Cleveland. There’s a limit to how large his impact can be, however, because punters simply do not play that much.
Andy Lee had 145 snaps last season, per Football Outsiders, which includes being the holder on field-goal attempts. If Pinion leads the rookies in snaps, that would be a very bad thing—it would either mean no rookies contributed or the 49ers set a new record for punts in a season. You want your punter to be very good; you never want to see him on the field.
5. TE Blake Bell
As mentioned in Rory Anderson’s capsule, tight end is a very crowded position for San Francisco. However, Blake Bell has better hands than some of the guys above him, including Vance McDonald and Derek Carrier. The only thing holding him back from earning the second tight-end role is a lack of experience at the position, especially in terms of blocking—Bell is a converted quarterback.
If he can prove his blocking is only subpar rather than terrible, Bell might well rise to that second tight-end position this season. Even if he doesn’t, he could take Derek Carrier’s role on special teams. Bell is the first name on this list with a real chance of leading the team in snaps.
4. OT Trent Brown
Trent Brown has been the surprise of the offseason so far. The seventh-round pick is firmly in the competition at right tackle, though he’s behind Erik Pears and Alex Boone at the moment. Even if he doesn’t earn that starting spot, he’s made huge steps toward securing a role as one of the backup tackles, which is a huge jump for someone picked so late in the draft.
We saw last year that your top backup tackle can get a lot of snaps quickly, with Jonathan Martin ending up with the fourth-most offensive linemen snaps by the time all was said and done. Bell is more likely to have more snaps than Brown, but Brown has the better chance of becoming a starter and thus running away with the competition.
3. OLB Eli Harold
Eli Harold likely won’t get too many outside linebacker snaps in 2015, with Aldon Smith, Ahmad Brooks and Aaron Lynch all ahead of him on the depth chart. He’s a natural pass-rusher, though, so he might well claw his way into snaps before the season is done, especially if Smith gets in trouble again or Brooks keeps benching himself.
Harold should be an immediate contributor on special teams too; he might replace Corey Lemonier, who had the second-most special teams snaps in 2014. His over/under should be set at 350 total snaps in 2015—anything significantly less would be a disappointment.
2. SS Jaquiski Tartt
There’s always the chance that Antoine Bethea or Eric Reid will go down with an injury, and Tartt’s likely the primary backup in such a situation. There’s also a chance Tartt will get regular playing time in a big nickel or dime set on defense. However, the reason Tartt is so high is because he’s a missile of a tackler, which seems perfect for special teams.
It’s possible he outright beats Craig Dahl, last year’s special teams snaps leader, out for a roster slot. Even if he doesn’t, defensive backs make great gunners on special teams, with Dahl, L.J. McCray and Dontae Johnson all seeing more than 200 snaps there last season. Tartt should get at least a couple of hundred snaps on special teams, barring injury.
1. DL Arik Armstead
For most teams, the first-round pick being most likely to get the most snaps would be a no-brainer. However, Arik Armstead is considered a developmental player—so why is he first?
It’s not because of special teams performance. Big tackles such as Armstead don’t really play much of a role on special teams; Tony Jerod-Eddie led all 49ers defensive linemen with 143 special teams snaps in 2014. As such, Armstead isn’t likely to get a lot of snaps on special teams.
The reason he's placed so high is because of the massive uncertainty along the defensive line. There are 1,535 line snaps to replace now Justin Smith, Ray McDonald and a number of backups are gone. In addition, Tony Jerod-Eddie is far from a lock to make the roster, putting his 420 defensive snaps up for grabs. Darnell Dockett hasn’t been able to practice yet, either.
In short, there are a lot of snaps up for grabs and no guarantees about who will manage to pull them down. Although Armstead is raw, it seems very likely that he’ll end up as part of the D-line rotation. All the end spots are up for grabs, and Armstead has the raw talent to carve out a significant chunk of snaps for himself.
He could get a lot of the base or run-situation snaps, rotating out in more obvious passing situations to start his career. His high draft spot, combined with the uncertainty at the position, makes him the most likely to lead the 49ers’ rookies in snaps.
Bryan Knowles is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the San Francisco 49ers. Follow him @BryKno on twitter.
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