Danny Green, Monta Ellis or Wesley Matthews: Which Free-Agent SG Is Best Bet?
Somewhere just beyond the suddenly legitimate questions about where Dwyane Wade will finish his career, there's a fairly robust market for second-tier shooting guards. Wade's future will grab the headlines, but the other 2-guards could play a defining role for would-be contenders like the Portland Trail Blazers, Dallas Mavericks and San Antonio Spurs.
All three clubs have starting shooting guards who are unrestricted free agents this summer: Wesley Matthews, Monta Ellis and Danny Green. Others will assuredly be interested in that trio, all of whom have established themselves as legitimate starters with winning pedigree.
| Games | Min | Pts | FG% | 3FG% | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | |
| Matthews | 60 | 33.7 | 15.9 | .448 | .389 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.2 |
| Ellis | 80 | 33.7 | 18.9 | .445 | .285 | 2.4 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.3 |
| Green | 81 | 28.5 | 11.7 | .436 | .418 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 1.1 |
But their stories aren't entirely identical; nor is their appeal. Much depends on fit, and that in turn depends on the suitor. Ellis' ability to make plays and score off the dribble will attract some teams. Others will appreciate Green's three-and-D acuity. Matthews may offer the best of both worlds.
It's a point guard's league, but each of these shooting guards could make a decisive impact in the right situation.
Blazing the FA Trail
Matthews could set the market price for starting shooting guards this summer. USA Today's Sam Amick reports, "According to a person with knowledge of Matthews' situation, he is seeking a multiyear deal that pays approximately $15 million annually."
That's a lot of money, particularly for a guy who tore his left Achilles tendon in March. But a salary of that size is also conceivable, given the unprecedented spikes in cap room scheduled for 2016 and 2017. We're entering a new world where someone like Matthews—a complementary but talented scorer who plays solid defense—just might be worth $15 million per season after his six years in the league.
Amick also notes that "Matthews has already returned to basketball activities, and he is expected to be fully healthy and ready to play at the start of the regular season. He is on track to be active once training camps begin in October, but is likely to ease his way into the preseason."
Matthews would represent an upgrade for a lot of teams, including perhaps the Mavericks and Spurs. The 28-year-old is originally from San Antonio, so it's entirely plausible that he replaces Ellis or Green in a Texas return.
Here's how ESPN.com's Tim MacMahon described Dallas' thinking:
"If they get [DeAndre] Jordan -- or miss out on both top targets [LaMarcus Aldridge], hopefully keeping [Tyson] Chandler in that case -- the Mavs will look to invest in a shooting guard whose game would mesh well with [Chandler] Parsons'. In other words, they want a strong defender and 3-point shooter who is comfortable playing off the ball -- pretty much the polar opposite of Ellis. The top names on that list in this summer's free agency crop are Danny Green and Wesley Matthews.
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The Spurs haven't been linked to Matthews just yet, but that would likely change in the event Green goes elsewhere. Aside from Portland and the Texas teams, the Memphis Grizzlies are also likely to be in the market for an upgrade over the Courtney Lee-Tony Allen platoon. And there are any number of non-contenders who could desperately use Matthews' skill and experience. One way or another, he'll get paid.
And he'll deserve it.
The 6'5" spot-up specialist averaged 15.9 points per contest last season, a year after posting a career-high 16.4 points per game. He's come a long way from going undrafted and proving himself as a rookie for the Utah Jazz. That's a good thing for Ellis and Green.
A Maverick Indeed
Ellis led the Mavericks with 18.9 points per game last season but opted out of a deal that would have paid him just $8,720,000 next season. That sounds like a lot of money, but it's almost certainly far less than he'll earn on the open market—likely from a team other than Dallas, which is reportedly uninterested in re-signing him.
This guy can flat-out score, particularly via penetration and his exceptional mid-range game. And he makes more plays than you might think, as he's tallied 4.8 assists per game for his career.
There are, however, a few caveats for Ellis. He has a reputation for being moody and temperamental. And all of that on-court production can come at the expense of ball movement. Ellis likes to have the rock in his hands.
One also has to wonder how the 29-year-old will age in his 11th campaign and beyond. Quickness has been an important element of his game, and he's not getting any quicker over the duration of his next contract.
That said, a good team could get a whole lot better with a spark plug like Ellis. Assuming said suitor already has an established culture and infrastructure in place, he could still be a difference-maker. So it should come as no surprise that two talented Eastern Conference squads are rumored to be on Ellis' trail.
According to RealGM's Shams Charania, "Ellis plans to discuss a long-term contract with the Atlanta Hawks and Miami Heat in free agency after opting out of the final year of his contract on Wednesday, sources told RealGM."
Both teams could use a pure scorer, and that's what Ellis does. He could probably do it even better outside the hyper-competitive Western Conference. To that end, he should earn somewhere in the neighborhood of what Matthews commands. That might not equate to $15 million annually, but it will mean a significant raise over the $8,360,000 he made last season.
Even with Ellis' well-chronicled baggage, he's a rare talent who's likely to be rewarded, perhaps by Miami or Atlanta. He probably isn't as desirable as Matthews. Though more versatile offensively, Ellis is an inferior player in terms of defense and three-point shooting—both highly sought-after perimeter virtues in today's league.
Spurring Change
While Matthews may be the best all-around free-agent shooting guard this side of Wade, Green—also entering his seventh season—may well be the best buy. And the 28-year-old could be on the move. Core talent rarely parts ways with the Spurs, but Green could be lost in the shuffle as San Antonio pursues big names like LaMarcus Aldridge.
It's hard to imagine Green getting the kind of money Matthews is looking for, largely because of his modest production as a complementary piece in head coach Gregg Popovich's ensemble offensive approach. In a different system, those numbers might improve. But many will view Green as something of a role player.
That's not an entirely unreasonable assessment, either. Green struggles to create off the dribble, and he's not a strong finisher at the rim.
But don't be surprised if he still ends up making around $10 million annually. A closer look at his two-way effectiveness will intrigue a number of front offices. Here's how the San Antonio Express-News' Dan McCarney summarized Green's value in May:
"For all the wild peaks and valleys in Green's accuracy, he's proven to be remarkably consistent over the long haul, joining Klay Thompson and Kyle Korver as the only players to make at least 100 3s at 40 percent or better in each of the past four seasons. Over that same span, Green is also tied with Memphis' Tony "First Team All-Defense" Allen — a career 27.1-percent shooter on 3s — for the league lead among shooting guards with a total of 11.9 defensive win shares.
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That's impressive company on both ends of the floor, and rest assured a few general managers know it. Dallas' Donnie Nelson may be one of them. Charania's report on Ellis also notes, "As Monta Ellis pursues a new deal on the East Coast, the Dallas Mavericks are targeting San Antonio Spurs free agent Danny Green, league sources told RealGM."
Adding that the 2-guard could elicit a contract starting in the $10 million to $12 million range, Charania writes that "Green has a strong desire to return to the Spurs, sources said, but free agency could hold more lucrative deals elsewhere."
If Green, in fact, turns out to be significantly cheaper than Matthews, that's an important factor for most teams—particularly contenders that are already spending big money. Matthews and Ellis are both more accomplished than Green, but the right money and right situation could reveal another level to Green's game.
Remember, he's a role player largely because that's where he fits in San Antonio. He could probably do more and warrant an especially lucrative deal as a result. Odds are, however, that he'd prefer to win with a team like the Spurs or Mavericks (or, conceivably, the Trail Blazers).
Matthews shakes out as the best overall player in the discussion, but Green could turn out to be the best per-dollar value. As for Ellis, he's an ideal solution for teams in need of offense, and he'll be a fairly pricey solution at that.
All three of these guys have another productive chapter or two left in their careers. They're all under 30, and they've also proved they can contribute in big—and yes, different—ways. And rest assured, they're all getting raises this summer.
