Pistons Should Gamble on Stanley Johnson's Upside with No. 8 Pick in NBA Draft
Currently sitting at No. 8 in the 2015 NBA draft, Stan Van Gundy and the Detroit Pistons are in prime position to substantially upgrade their roster with a talented wing or stretch 4.
There should be several intriguing options at that juncture in the lottery, including 2-guards such as Kentucky's Devin Booker, wings such as Arizona's Stanley Johnson and forwards such as Wisconsin's Frank Kaminsky.
According to Andrew Perna of RealGM.com, the Pistons are zeroing in on Johnson with the expectation that Croatian prodigy Mario Hezonja will already be off the board.
Considering Detroit's needs at the 3 spot and Johnson's overall value, this is a wise pursuit by Van Gundy and Co. The multidimensional freshman would fit superbly alongside rim-rocking big man Andre Drummond and shifty guard Brandon Jennings.
Johnson isn't the most dazzling player in any single area, but he's the best overall prospect in the latter half of the lottery, and he has perhaps the highest two-way upside of anybody in that range.
| MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | FG% | 3FG% | FT% | PER |
| 28.4 | 13.8 | 6.5 | 1.7 | 1.5 | .446 | .371 | .742 | 22.5 |
Right now, the Pistons' depth chart at small forward is tenuous at best. Tayshaun Prince is a free agent and in the twilight of his career, Quincy Miller's contract is nonguaranteed, and Cartier Martin has a player option for next year.
Johnson represents a massive upgrade over those peripheral pieces; the one-and-done standout is a worthwhile risk for Detroit.
Offensive Upside
He's far from a completely polished asset at this stage, but he's on track to become an ultraversatile weapon. Johnson did a little bit of everything at a high level last season, and as he continues to refine his offensive skill set, he'll be a dynamic addition to the Pistons' attack.
Although Johnson isn't yet the sharpshooter that Detroit could use, he has a chance to offer much more than a one-dimensional offensive impact. At Arizona, he showed that he can attack and score from all three levels.
He needs to work on his finishing touch and decision-making around the rim, as he wasn't always efficient on his forays to the hoop. Fortunately, he has a 240-pound frame and ample springs to elevate and absorb contact. When he gets high-percentage opportunities, he takes care of business, especially in transition.
Johnson also has a promising mid-range skill set. Last year, he demonstrated the ability to stop-and-pop for buckets, hitting 44 percent of his two-point jumpers, per Hoop-math.com. He talked to Keith Langlois of Pistons.com about his rapidly expanding in-between arsenal and mid-post development:
"If you guys have watched my games, you know I gained a mid-range game, I gained a floater, I gained a pull-up. I'm now working on post-ups, turnarounds, stuff like that. Making plays off the fadeaway and the mid-range area, so I think next season that should be a part of my game that shines a lot, a part of my game I can go to and rely on in the league when I'm not able to finish over bigger defenders.
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As for his perimeter shot, it's certainly a work in progress, but it shouldn't be viewed as a weakness.
Johnson's jumper was one of his most questionable attributes entering college, but he hit 37 percent of his triples (43 of 116) as a freshman. That's not shabby considering he's 19 years old. It suggests he could continue to improve early in his NBA career.
The only notable concern with his jumper is the release point, which is a bit low. However, he compensates by having a quick, smooth delivery and great balance. While it's not advisable to have a release point as low as his, it's not something that ruins his three-point potential.
Johnson's game and fit with Detroit get particularly intriguing when you focus on his ball-handling skills and ability to create offense.
Van Gundy likes to run a lot of sideline pick-and-rolls, giving ball-handlers momentum and space to operate with their strong hand. Motown's skipper also does a good job of getting his wings open off cross-screen action. Johnson will mesh well in this system because he can play with or without the ball.
"[Johnson is] very comfortable operating in pick-and-rolls," notes Mike Schmitz of DraftExpress.com. "[He] can either split the screen, reject and attack or beat the big at times."
When Arizona called on him to initiate offense and make plays for others, he did a superb job for a 6'6" freshman whose handle isn't too advanced. He averaged 3.9 assists per 100 possessions against Pac-12 competition, displaying tremendous control and awareness.
If Detroit develops him properly, these promising traits could blossom into a lethal multifaceted attack.
Offensive upside with Pistons: third scoring option, secondary handler, 15-18 PPG, 3-4 APG, 38 3FG%
Defensive Upside
Johnson's long-term outlook is equally rosy on the defensive side.
In addition to his offensive versatility, this is the area that really separates him from the other late-lottery prospects. He has the body, instincts and disposition to lock down wings and check multiple positions.
As an on-ball stopper, his quick feet and 6'11.5" wingspan enable him to stymie would-be slashers and frustrate playmakers. Johnson does a great job of darting to the right spot to steer opponents into trouble, as Andrew Ford of Upside & Motor explained.
"His lightning quick first step allows him to wall off driving lanes, and his muscular frame ensures that most guys won’t simply overpower him," said Ford. "His great understanding of help defense concepts allows him to shade ball-handlers to a spot on the floor that will put them in precarious situations."
Thanks to that keen awareness and overwhelming physicality, Johnson served as a valuable, efficient cog in Arizona's strong defensive unit. He grabbed 2.1 steals per 40 minutes and prevented countless drives, registering the second-best defensive rating (87.6) in the Pac-12.
The defensive area he needs to work on the most is off-ball consistency. While he was a willing helper and interceptor, he didn't always exhibit the best habits of tracking his man on the weak side and navigating through screens.
If he can improve on those deficiencies while sharpening his strengths, he could be an elite instrument for Van Gundy. Given his combination of quickness, power and length, Johnson has a legitimate chance to guard four different positions.
Think about the interchangeability Kawhi Leonard and Andre Iguodala bring to their respective teams. That's the kind of impact Johnson can have if he reaches his ceiling. With a rim protector such as Drummond behind him, Johnson could play a dynamic brand of defense on the wing.
Defensive upside: Defensive Player of the Year contender; top five in NBA in defensive plus/minus, defensive rating and defensive win shares
Draft Outlook
When Detroit sizes up its options at No. 8, it will be tempted to take a floor-spacer such as Kentucky's Booker or Wisconsin's stretch big Kaminsky. The Pistons may even be toying with the idea of picking a different wing, such as Wisconsin's Sam Dekker or Kansas' Kelly Oubre.
But Van Gundy is a true two-way coach, and Johnson is the late-lotto prospect who offers the best two-way value, as CBSSports.com's Sam Vecenie explained: "Johnson would be a pretty perfect fit for what the Pistons want to do and what Van Gundy likes from a wing. He can really get out in transition, can handle the ball, and really can lock down and defend when he is engaged."
Johnson wouldn't just fill the void at small forward. He'd give the Pistons a potential star who can help them in every phase of the game.
Dan O'Brien covers the NBA draft for Bleacher Report.
Follow him on Twitter: @DanielO_BR
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