Harrison Barnes Should Be Golden State Warriors' Top Priority for the Offseason

The Golden State Warriors enter the offseason sitting pretty as the newly crowned NBA champions, which means it's the perfect time to heed the idiomatic advice "don't rest on your laurels." Not resting on their laurels means signing Harrison Barnes to a long-term contract this summer.

Few teams have been as well positioned as the Warriors, who proved to be the league's best and deepest team this season. Four of Golden State's starters are in their 20s, with Stephen Curry the oldest of that bunch at 27 years old. The team holds control of three of those four players through the 2016-17 season.

Maintaining that long-term security is exactly why Golden State needs to get a contract extension done with Barnes before he becomes a restricted free agent next year.

The seventh overall pick in the 2012 draft, Barnes has been inconsistent during his first three seasons. However, the arrow is clearly pointing north following his play in 2014-15.

Season	Points per 40 mins	Rebounds per 40 mins	TS%	PER
'12-'13	14.5	6.5	52.6	11.08
'13-'14	13.4	5.6	48.6	9.85
'14-'15	14.3	7.8	57.3	13.41

The good news for Warriors fans is that the two sides would both like to get a deal done this summer, according to Marcus Thompson of the San Jose Mercury News.

Draymond Green's contract will garner the most headlines this offseason, but that appears to be a fait accompli, per Diamond Leung of the Bay Area News Group. Negotiations with Barnes hold the key to future flexibility for the Warriors.

The rising salary cap

Via Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress, the NBA's salary cap is set to explode in 2016, when Barnes is scheduled to hit the restricted free-agent market:

That $22 million increase means several teams will have a lot of money to throw at Barnes. Golden State, meanwhile, will be one of the few teams right up against the cap.

Assuming Green receives between $12-15 million per season, the Warriors will be on the hook for over $80 million guaranteed to only eight players in 2016-17, according to Basketball Insiders.

With little flexibility to add a replacement, Golden State would have no choice but to match any offers that come in for Barnes, even if those offers start at over $20 million per season.

At worst, the Warriors would be paying Barnes $15 million a year if they sign him to a deal before his rookie contract expires. If they get him for even less, like the $10-12 million range Marcus Thompson suggested, it's a bargain.

The summer of 2017

It's likely that all decisions Golden State makes over the next two seasons will be done with an eye on the summer of 2017.

That's when things start to get messy.

As things stand, only Klay Thompson is under contract for the 2017-2018 season. Even if we assume the Warriors extend Green, Barnes and Festus Ezeli, 2017 remains a pivotal offseason for Golden State.

For starters, they'll finally have to pay Curry what he's truly worth, which will be north of $30 million per season under the current CBA structure. 

Also out of contract that summer are Andrew Bogut (who will be 32 years old), Andre Iguodala (33) and Shaun Livingston (31). It's possible—even likely—Golden State will need to begin replacing that trio—a pricey proposition.

By signing Barnes to a long-term contract now, Golden State runs the risk of overpaying a potentially limited player.

But the implications of not locking Barnes down this summer could be much, much worse.