NBA Draft 2015: Building the All-Overrated 1st Team
My least favorite word when it comes to the draft is upside. I get that you have to try to project what a guy will be down the road, but too often, teams swing and miss on prospects who just aren't far enough along to warrant the hype.
Most of the guys on this list deserve to get drafted, but they are not ready to contribute at the NBA level and need several things to fall into place to be successful, whether it be improved shooting, game-to-game consistency or any other number of factors. The prospects are all overrated based on their average positions on mock drafts; I used DraftExpress, NBADraft.net and Chad Ford's latest mock at ESPN.com to get an average draft position for each player.
Every player on this list has either a red or yellow flag. Now let's meet the prospects you don't want your team to reach for.
Kelly Oubre
1 of 5
Average mock position: 18
What does Kelly Oubre do well?
That's a good place to start when assessing Oubre. He looks the part of a pro. He's a smooth athlete (when he doesn't have the ball) with ridiculously long arms (a 7'2" wingspan). But his skill set at this point is limited.
Oubre's mechanics on his jumper aren't bad, but his shot is really flat and streaky. He shot 35.8 percent from deep and went just 4-of-18 (22.2 percent) over KU's final eight games. Oubre is not a great finisher around the rim, either, unless he's able to dunk. He's not a good passer—he had more turnovers (43) than assists (28)—and his handle is shaky.
He showed more promise on the defensive end at Kansas, and he does have good instincts as a rebounder. He averaged 5.0 boards in 21.0 minutes per game.
The hope is that Oubre will turn into a three-and-D wing, but he's far from ready and probably needs a good amount of time in the D-League. Yet he's just now slipping out of the lottery in most mock drafts.
Is a guy without much offensive skill who is a D-Leaguer at this point really what you want in the middle of the first round?
Cameron Payne
2 of 5
Average mock position: 12.3
I actually like Murray State's Cameron Payne. He's a clever ball-handler who can make plays using ball screens and has great vision. But at some point, Payne went from underrated to overrated when he shot up mock drafts to the third-best point guard on the board.
The guy behind Payne right now on most mock drafts is Notre Dame's Jerian Grant. Grant fits a similar description—clever ball-handler, great vision, awesome using ball screens—and he put up similar numbers against much better competition. Grant's offensive rating (122.3) was even better than Payne's (118.8), per KenPom.com, and again, the level of competition wasn't even close. Oh, and Grant is 6'5", compared to Payne, who is 6'2".
In Grant, you get a guy with a body and a game that are ready-made to contribute in the NBA right now. Payne has potential, but there's more uncertainty. Again, I like his game. More so than any guy on this list.
But I wouldn't put him above Grant, and you could make a case for putting Delon Wright and Tyus Jones above him on the draft board as well.
Kevon Looney
3 of 5
Average mock position: 21.3
Kevon Looney reminds me a lot of Noah Vonleh in last year's draft. When you watch both play, there's just something missing, and the production doesn't meet the hype. In fact, the numbers are almost identical.
Looney averaged 11.6 points and 9.2 rebounds as a freshman at UCLA. Vonleh averaged 11.3 points and 9.0 rebounds in his only year at Indiana. Vonleh shot 48.5 percent from deep. Looney shot 41.5 percent.
The high three-point percentage, even in limited attempts, suggests that Looney projects as a solid jump-shooter in the pros. But that doesn't look as good when you see he made only 25.7 percent of his two-point jumpers, according to Hoop-Math.
It's too soon to really judge Vonleh's NBA career, but the early returns don't suggest he was worthy of the ninth pick in the draft. He was buried on Charlotte's bench and played in only 25 games this past season, averaging 3.3 points and 2.3 rebounds in 10.4 minutes per game.
Vonleh had a more NBA-ready body coming out of Indiana than Looney has going into the league. Both guys probably should have stayed in school, and there's just not enough to warrant the high pick.
Robert Upshaw
4 of 5
Average mock position: 42
Robert Upshaw is showing up in the early second round on most mock drafts, and not too long ago, he was showing up in the first round.
"With what happened to Royce White, no one wants to use their first-round pick on a guy like that," a scout told Bleacher Report.
There are major character concerns with Upshaw after he was booted from both Fresno State and Washington. There's also not much to like about his game outside of his shot blocking.
Granted, Upshaw is a tremendous shot-blocker. He has great length—he's 7'0" with a 7'4" wingspan—and good timing. But he struggled defending outside the paint, particularly against ball screens, and he's a lazy defender.
Offensively, he'd be a liability in the NBA. He's a terrible shooter—43.4 percent at the free-throw line this past year—and a poor decision-maker and passer. He had 24 turnovers and only nine assists in 19 games.
Even if the character concerns weren't there, I'm not sure there's enough to his game to warrant a first-round pick or even one early in the second round.
Myles Turner
5 of 5
Average mock position: 12
Turner is a few years away from being a factor in the league. He's one of those guys who gets the upside folks all giddy. He has the makings of a jumper with range. He's a shade under 7'0" with a 7'4" wingspan. He can block shots.
But other than the shot blocking, the rest is just projections and hope. He spent much of his freshman year at Texas floating around the perimeter, trying to prove that he could shoot the perimeter jumper, yet he shot only 27.4 percent from deep. At times, he resembled a lost puppy on the offensive end, wandering to spots where he didn't belong.
His numbers were decent—10.1 points, 6.5 rebounds and 2.6 blocks per game—but he was very inconsistent, especially against good competition. Against NCAA tourney teams, his scoring average dipped to 8.2 points per game. And in three postseason games (two in the Big 12 tourney and one in the NCAA tourney), he scored a combined 10 points and had just two blocks.
The fact that Turner started only seven games on a team that went 8-10 in the Big 12 is a bit alarming. Texas had been in a slump when it came to landing any premier in-state recruits, so it was in the coaching staff's best interest to make Turner look good and give him minutes.
Turner is just outside the top 10 in most mock drafts, usually ahead of Wisconsin's Frank Kaminsky. Kaminsky is the most skilled big man in the draft and ready to contribute now. If Turner falls to the late teens or early 20s, he's worth a gamble for a team that has the time to wait on his development. But if you're picking between Kaminsky and Turner, why not go with the guy who has the offensive game (and more) that you hope Turner will eventually develop?
Average mock positions reflect updates made on June 23.
C.J. Moore covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @CJMooreBR.
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