Make-or-Break Games for Top 2015 Heisman Candidates

Successful Heisman campaigns can hinge on one performance.

Think of the last few Heisman Trophy winners, and a few signature games will come to mind—Jameis Winston's pregame speech and 444-yard outburst against Clemson in 2013, Johnny Manziel's crazy play in an upset win over Alabama in 2012 and Robert Griffin III's game-winning strike to knock off Oklahoma in 2011.

But Heisman campaigns can come to an abrupt end in big games, too. Remember how West Virginia's Geno Smith looked like the runaway favorite in 2012 before Kansas State held him to 143 yards in a prime-time blowout loss?

In anticipation of what should be a Heisman race filled with a ton of great candidates in 2015, let's take a look at the games that could make or break the top contenders' bids for the award.

These games, one for each of the top 10 players in the latest numbers from Odds Shark, were determined by the amount of national spotlight on the matchup, the player's previous performances against the school and the caliber of the opposing defense.

UCLA RB Paul Perkins

Gus Ruelas/Associated Press

at Arizona (Sept. 26)

This September game between UCLA and Arizona is a showdown college football fans should repeatedly circle on their calendars. Paul Perkins, the Pac-12's leading rusher, will go toe-to-toe with Arizona linebacker Scooby Wright III, the nation's best defender in 2014.

Perkins was held to his lowest yards-per-carry average against Wright and the Arizona defense last season. The UCLA star had 78 yards on 21 touches, but he did find the end zone once in the 17-7 defensive showcase at the Rose Bowl.

Going for big numbers against these Wright-led Wildcats would definitely grab the attention of Heisman voters, and Perkins will have a chance to do it behind a more experienced offensive line. Perkins doesn't have as much Heisman hype as the rest of the names on this list, but how he performs in this game will set the tone for the rest of his campaign.

Clemson QB Deshaun Watson

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vs. Florida State (Nov. 7)

The biggest stage on Clemson's schedule is definitely the Florida State game, which has determined the ACC's Atlantic Division champion every year since 2009. Deshaun Watson starred in this matchup last season—the first extended work of his career—and almost led the Tigers to an upset over the Jameis Winston-less Seminoles.

Watson completed 19 of his 28 passes for 266 yards against Florida State last season and also scored a touchdown on the ground. That performance earned him the starting quarterback job for the Tigers, and he destroyed North Carolina and N.C. State's defenses the next two weeks before an injury derailed his momentum.

Another great game against the Seminoles defense, one that ends with a win, would command a ton of national attention to the sensational sophomore quarterback. If he doesn't play well in this game, Watson would have to put up ridiculous numbers for the rest of the season just to have a shot in the eyes of the voters.

Alabama RB Derrick Henry

Jonathan Bachman/Associated Press

vs. LSU (Nov. 7)

Fans have come to expect plenty of ball control and ground-and-pound offense in the slugfest known as the Alabama-LSU game. This season, the spotlight will be on Derrick Henry, who will take the No. 1 running back spot after getting fewer carries than veteran T.J. Yeldon these last two years.

LSU's rush defense had its woes in 2014, but the overtime loss to Alabama in Baton Rouge featured one of its best performances of the season. The Bayou Bengals held the Tide's rushing attack to 3.66 yards per carry and kept it out of the end zone, with Henry only going for 24 yards on eight touches.

With Alabama replacing its quarterback and its top three receivers this year, expect offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin to turn Henry loose all season long. The freakish Henry has shown flashes of superstar statistics in his two seasons at Alabama, and a big-game performance against LSU could have the junior following in the footsteps of former Heisman winner Mark Ingram.

USC QB Cody Kessler

Mark J. Terrill/Associated Press

vs. Stanford (Sept. 19)

Kessler didn't record a passing touchdown in only two games last season—a home loss to Arizona State and a narrow home win over Stanford. The Stanford game was his quietest performance of the season, as he only threw for 135 yards in the Trojans' 13-10 victory.

Low passing outputs were a theme against the Cardinal defense in 2014. Stanford was the only team in the pass-happy Pac-12 to hold opponents to an average of fewer than 200 yards through the air. While Stanford has to replace several starters on defense, Kessler can expect another stiff challenge in this season's meeting at the Coliseum.

If Kessler can improve on a 2014 season in which he was the nation's fourth-most efficient passer, then he should have no problem in contending for the Heisman Trophy. This Stanford matchup will the first true test for Kessler, and having a big day against a usually stingy defense would be a huge step in bringing the stiff-arming award back to Los Angeles.

Ohio State QBs Cardale Jones, Braxton Miller and J.T. Barrett

Jamie Sabau/Getty Images

at Virginia Tech (Sept. 7)

Cardale Jones (12-1) is the only Ohio State quarterback inside the top 10 of current Heisman odds, but Braxton Miller (20-1) and J.T. Barrett (33-1) aren't too far down the list. But no matter who wins the Buckeyes' starting job, the top quarterback has a huge opportunity to jump out to a lead in the Heisman race from the first weekend of the season.

Not only does Virginia Tech have the country's latest victory over the defending national champions—a 35-21 upset in Columbus—but it also boasts one of the nation's best pass defenses for 2015. Last year, Barrett went an abysmal 9-of-29 with three interceptions against these Hokies.

Virginia Tech's passing offense should be stout, but if the winner of Ohio State's quarterback battle can lead the Buckeyes to a big prime-time win away from home, his Heisman buzz will grow exponentially. 

Georgia RB Nick Chubb

David Stephenson/Associated Press

vs. Alabama (Oct. 3)

Two different SEC Heisman contenders have games against Alabama on this list—and for good reason. Succeeding against the Crimson Tide's fantastic defense can be the key to winning the Heisman, and a poor performance can knock you right out of the race.

Nick Chubb's unreal 7.06 yards-per-carry mark from 2014—combined with a veteran Georgia offensive line—should make for some eye-popping stat lines this season. But how will Chubb do against an Alabama defense that held each regular-season opponent to fewer than 200 rushing yards last year?

Chubb doesn't necessarily have to have a mammoth day against Alabama in order to stay in the Heisman race. But a big day against a defense that doesn't allow many of those would definitely secure his place in the driver's seat. Likewise, an underwhelming performance could take the shine off this Lamborghini.

LSU RB Leonard Fournette

Stacy Revere/Getty Images

vs. Arkansas (Nov. 14)

The worst performance Leonard Fournette had in his true freshman campaign last year was by far his showing in LSU's 17-0 road loss to Arkansas. Fournette had five carries for nine yards. That's it.

After the game, LSU head coach Les Miles said "the runs for him were just not working" against a tough Arkansas front. While he received more than 20 carries in games against some of the SEC's elite defenses—Alabama, Florida and Ole Miss—it was the Arkansas defense that bottled Fournette up and kept him on the sidelines.

How Fournette does in this season's matchup against Arkansas will say a lot about his chances in the Heisman race. The Tigers face what should be an improved Razorbacks team one week after their annual heavyweight bout with Alabama. Fournette can't afford to be held in check for a second straight season by the Hogs.

Mississippi State QB Dak Prescott

Brynn Anderson/Associated Press

vs. Alabama (Nov. 14)

Dak Prescott's 2014 Heisman campaign hit a wall last season at Alabama, where he threw three interceptions in Mississippi State's first loss of the season. The Bulldogs would go on to lose the Egg Bowl to rival Ole Miss, and Prescott slipped down to eighth in Heisman voting.

"The Tide's defensive front was physical enough to take away the power-running game of Prescott and Josh Robinson, who combined to average 3.5 yards per rush against the tough Crimson Tide front," AL.com's Gary Laney wrote after Mississippi State's loss to Alabama. "With Alabama forcing the Bulldogs to throw, Prescott was not efficient."

While the Bulldogs might not contend for a playoff berth this year, Prescott is still talented enough to make a run at the Heisman with a superb senior season. Great performances against Alabama's defense by Cam Newton and Johnny Manziel helped the two SEC West stars win the Heisman. Revenge for last season's disappointment and a home upset win would get Prescott on the plane to New York City.

TCU QB Trevone Boykin

Tom Pennington/Getty Images

vs. Baylor (Nov. 27)

While last season's Baylor-TCU game was a wild shootout to remember, it was actually one of Trevone Boykin's worst performances of the season. The Horned Frogs quarterback, who finished the season on a ridiculous offensive pace, completed less than 50 percent of his passes and only had one of his team's touchdowns.

If both of the Big 12's defending co-champions take care of business for the majority of the 2015 schedule, this matchup could be another Game of the Year candidate. The eyes of the entire college football world will be on this one because it has the spotlight all to itself on the Friday night of rivalry weekend.

Baylor's defense, which ranked fourth in the Big 12 in total yards allowed per game last season, returns the majority of its starters for 2015. Boykin would solidify his Heisman credentials with a huge offensive performance against a rival school and what quite possibly could be a clinching victory in the Big 12 title race.

Ohio State RB Ezekiel Elliott

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vs. Michigan State (Nov. 21)

First of all, this is the biggest game on Ohio State's 2015 schedule. These two elite Big Ten East rivals have gone back and forth in recent years, and this contest at the Horseshoe will most likely determine who goes to the conference title game and has a shot at making the College Football Playoff.

Ezekiel Elliott needs to have another signature performance against what could possibly be the nation's No. 1 rushing defense again this season. The Spartans only allowed 88.5 rushing yards per game in 2014, and Elliott was part of their worst performance—he had 154 of Ohio State's 268 yards on the ground against Sparty.

But Michigan State returns most of the top contributors to a fierce front seven that will be looking for revenge. If Elliott can repeat his great success against the Spartans defense this November, he should be a lock for the Heisman ceremony in December.

All stats courtesy of CFBStats.com.

Justin Ferguson is an on-call college football writer at Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @JFergusonBR.