Odds Jim Harbaugh Beats Ohio State, Michigan State or Both in 2015

It's no secret that first-year Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh has a tough rebuilding project ahead of him. After going 5-7 a year ago under Brady Hoke, getting back to a bowl game would be considered a successful season. But even if that doesn't happen, Michigan could get some satisfaction if it beats either Michigan State or Ohio State—or both. 

(Of course, defeating the Spartans and Buckeyes in the same season likely means Michigan is good enough to go bowling. In that case, it would be an added bonus.)

However, what are the odds of Michigan pulling off at least one of those upsets? Both games are at home, which is a plus, so let's set the early odds of beating Ohio State at 3-1, assuming as of today that the Buckeyes will be about a two-touchdown favorite at best. We'll put beating Michigan State at 2.5-1, assuming the Spartans will be a touchdown or so favorite. The odds to beat both? Let's put it at 8-1. 

These odds are just opinion, of course, but they are based on what some early Vegas lines are saying (with an assist from B/R in-house betting guru Adam Kramer). 

Still, the odds aren't great, and history alone tells you why. 

Compounding the misery of Michigan football over the past several years is the fact that the program has fallen far behind not just Ohio State, but Michigan State as well. Things have certainly changed dramatically since 2007 when former Wolverines running back Mike Hart referred to the Spartans as "little brother." 

At that time, Michigan had won its sixth straight game over its in-state rival. Since then, the Spartans have won six of the last seven meetings.

Things are even worse against the Buckeyes. Since 2003, which also happens to be the last time Michigan beat both teams, the Wolverines are 1-10 against Ohio State. Over the past eight seasons, Michigan is 3-13 against Michigan State and Ohio State. The Wolverines have lost to both teams in the same season five times. 

Heading into 2015, Ohio State is a runaway favorite to make the College Football Playoff again and potentially repeat as national champions. Michigan State returns quarterback Connor Cook and defensive end Shilique Calhoun and looks to play spoiler for the Buckeyes' Big Ten and national title hopes. 

In other words, barring an unforeseen development, Michigan isn't catching either team in a down year. To beat even one of them, it's going to require an ugly, grind-it-out game. (For what it's worth, Michigan went 2-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less last year.)

Carlos Osorio/Associated Press

That won't be easy. The Buckeyes and Spartans posted the top two scoring offenses in the Big Ten in 2014 at 44.8 and 43.0 points per game, respectively. Sure, both offenses lost some key contributors, especially at the skill positions. Tony Lippett and Jeremy Langford, the top receiver and rusher for the Spartans, are gone; Devin Smith, the Buckeyes' deep threat, is also no longer around. However, there are plenty of returning players to believe there won't be a major drop-off. 

Michigan's not going to get into a shootout with these teams. That's not their game right now. The Wolverines' concerns lie on offense because of an unresolved quarterback competition, a running back unit that has underperformed and an offensive line that has never quite come together. Under Hoke, there was never any improvement on that side of the ball. In fact, scoring offense actually got worse from 2013 to '14, dropping about 11 points per game. 

As Nick Baumgardner of MLive.com wrote in April following the spring game, Harbaugh's rebuilding job isn't impossible, but it has a long way to go: 

"

There's a reality here, whether fans want to admit it to themselves or not. Michigan's offense was completely broken a year ago. Harbaugh has to rebuild it. Not quite from scratch, but in terms of fundamentals and mental toughness, it's pretty close. It'll take far more than 15 practices to accomplish this feat, but at the same time, he's got a pretty good track record.

"

Will the Wolverines offense go from a total mess to something serviceable or better by mid-October (vs. Michigan State) or late November (vs. Ohio State)? Possibly, but turning around three years of mediocrity takes practices and more practices. And then some more practices. It wasn't fixed in the spring, and it may not be fixed in preseason camp. For all anyone knows, the best players Harbaugh will coach at Michigan may not even be on the roster yet. 

To upset Ohio State and/or Michigan State, Harbaugh's team will need to rely heavily on its defense—not to mention it'll need to catch some breaks as well. There's no denying the defense is ahead of the offense at the moment, but even then, that side of the ball has to be stingy.

In 2014, the Wolverines finished fourth in the Big Ten in scoring defense (18.4 points per game) against unranked teams; against three Associated Press-ranked teams, that number nearly doubled to 34.3 points per game. 

But if there's one thing Michigan has on its side, it's experience. Seventeen starters are returning, according to Phil Steele. Another returning player is safety Jabrill Peppers, the former blue-chip recruit who had his '14 season cut short because of a leg injury. 

Michigan hasn't been great in close games over the past couple of years—it's basically been a coin flip—but the important thing is that they've been in those situations. As former Wolverines lineman Jon Jansen said at a Michigan Alumni Alumni Association luncheon recently, per James Gensterblum of the Petoskey News-Review, that experience should pay off with Harbaugh's brand of mental toughness: 

"

Regardless of who was coaching this team, we would be a much better team this year just because of the experience these guys have gained. There's no way to simulate what it's like being on the field, and when you're an 18 or 19-year old kid running out of the tunnel to face 110,000 screaming fans, it's overwhelming.

"

"

Once you've gotten a year or two under your belt, you're not overwhelmed anymore, you're thinking about your assignment and focused on taking on the guy across from you. The game starts to slow down for you, and when you're playing fast and everything around you is slow, then everything is going to go better for you.

"

That's it. That's how Michigan upsets Michigan State and/or Ohio State. It's not terribly complex, but that doesn't make it easy, either. The Buckeyes and Spartans are the Big Ten's best right now and either could be playoff-bound next season. Michigan is simply trying to get things turned around in the right direction. 

Beating either one of those teams is about bringing them down to Michigan's level, not the other way around. 

 

Ben Kercheval is a lead writer for college football. All quotes cited unless obtained firsthand. All stats courtesy of cfbstats.com.