Ranking the Denver Nuggets' Biggest 2015 NBA Draft Needs
After a forgettable 30-52 campaign that included colossal two-way underachievement and Brian Shaw's dismissal, the Denver Nuggets will try to change their course.
With new leadership and the No. 7 draft pick in hand, they have a magnificent chance to give fans reason for hope.
The first major steps toward reinvigorating this franchise have already taken place. The club recently hired former Sacramento Kings general manager Pete D'Alessandro to help the front office and also tabbed former Sac-town skipper Mike Malone to coach the squad.
The roster, on the other hand, is still up in the air.
It's been known for some time now that the Nuggets are open to trading perhaps their two biggest faces, Ty Lawson and Kenneth Faried. The potential shipment of those players would drastically change the complexion of this team, which could be exactly what new management intends to do.
Regardless of Lawson's and Faried's statuses, the draft remains a prime opportunity to acquire a quality cog. What are the biggest needs the club should aim to address, as June 25 fast approaches?
3. Point Guard/Backcourt Depth
This will remain an area of concern whether Lawson is dealt or not. RealGM's Shams Charania recently reported that Jameer Nelson will forgo his 2015-16 option, so Denver will be thin at the point.
In 2014-15, the Nuggets ranked dead last in passes per game according to NBA.com's SportVU data because no one outside of Lawson was adept at passing the rock. They need backcourt help next to him on the floor and on the bench.
And if Lawson were to be dealt, the point guard position would likely land higher in these rankings.
The only chance Denver has to acquire a playmaker at No. 7 is if Emmanuel Mudiay falls to them. It could happen, however, if teams like the New York Knicks, Orlando Magic and Sacramento Kings decide to fill needs other than point guard.
Nabbing Mudiay would be an absolute steal, as the Congo-born and Texas-raised prospect would give them size and star potential in the backcourt. He's 6'5", agile and has a penchant for wreaking havoc in the pick-and-roll.
If Mudiay's not available, there really isn't another point guard worth reaching for that early. The team's best option to boost backcourt production would be Croatian Mario Hezonja.
The 6'8" high-flyer would help Denver in a two-fold manner: He'd boost the team's conference-worst three-point-shooting mark of 33 percent from 2014-15 and would also do some damage off the bounce, whether slashing or coming off ball screens.
Again, the Nuggets' approach toward point guards in the draft is directly dependent on their trade and free-agency plans. If they have their sights on a floor general via a Lawson trade or free agency, then they'll only be looking for supplemental help in the draft.
2. Defense/Two-Way Wing
The Nuggets didn't surrender a ton of three-pointers but were mediocre-to-poor in most other areas defensively.
Denver routinely let slashers get to the rim, which is a reflection of poor individual stoppage and collective rotations. As a result, the team surrendered a league-high 26.9 free throws per game. The Nuggets also struggled on the defensive glass, ranking in the league's bottom half in defensive rebounds and opponent offensive rebounds.
One player isn't going to fix these ailments—Malone's tutelage and training will probably be the ultimate remedy—but a two-way competitor is a step in the right direction.
Enter Justise Winslow, Duke's 6'6" small forward with promising skills and predatory instincts on both ends of the court. His ability to disrupt opponents defensively and attack athletically on offense makes him an ideal candidate for Mike Malone's system.
At his introductory press conference, Malone emphasized his desire for the defense to fuel the offense. "Every coach in the NBA wants to get stops and attack and run before the defense gets set," said Malone, via Christopher Dempsey of the Denver Post.
If Winslow doesn't sound like the ideal fit for that style of play, who does?
The Blue Devils star ranked in the ACC's top 10 in defensive rebounding, defensive rating and defensive win shares as a freshman. That's outstanding considering that Duke struggled defensively for most of the regular season. On offense, he has plenty of tools and agility to lay siege to the cup, along with a smooth jumper that netted him 42 percent from three-point land.
If Winslow is gone, dark-horse options to fill the defensive needs are Arizona small forward (see: linebacker) Stanley Johnson and Texas' gargantuan rim protector, Myles Turner.
1. Shooting Efficiency
One of the chief themes of Malone's tenure will be efficiency.
"I believe in playing fast," he said at his press conference. "But more important to me is playing with efficiency."
Denver piled up a bunch of points last year, but did so at the cost of hoisting loads of bad shots and displays of subpar defensive positioning. As previously mentioned, the Nuggets shot 33 percent from beyond the arc, and they also registered a 104.5 offensive rating (ranked 19th in the NBA), according to Basketball-Reference.com.
In order to fill the hoop at a healthier rate, Malone and Co. should closely eye a wing shooter or stretch big.
Let's revisit Hezonja and break down his shooting prowess. For those who haven't seen him play, he owns a picturesque delivery via superb elevation and is a threat to launch over opponents all game with his 6'8" frame.
He's shooting a modest 37 percent from distance against Spanish League and Euroleague foes, a number that will climb as his game matures. Hezonja's recent performance against Unicaja Malaga was a perfect example of his explosive scoring capabilities: He scored eight points in just six-plus minutes on 3-of-4 shooting, including 2-of-3 from downtown.
Winslow could be nearly as lethal from long range in a couple of years. His 42 percent three-point clip in 2014-15 includes an 8-of-14 (57 percent) stretch during the NCAA tournament. While the college line isn't as far back as the international or NBA arc, Winslow's output still looks promising.
What if Winslow and Hezonja are both somehow unavailable?
The next-best shooters who could fit on the roster are Myles Turner and Frank Kaminsky. Turner's a risky pick, but his shot-blocking and pick-and-pop shooting give him a ceiling worthy of top-seven consideration. Kaminsky is a much safer pick but is not an exceptional value that high in the lottery.
Ultimately, Nuggets fans should hope that Hezonja or Winslow falls to them on draft night.
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