College Basketball Stars Facing Unrealistic Expectations in 2015-16

Miami Heat coach Erik Spoelstra knows that success one year is not guaranteed the next, and can even lead to future problems.

"The result of success can poison a lot of things," Spoelstra said nearly three years ago, per USA Today's Jeff Zillgitt. "Poison your perception, poison your motivation, poison your sense of urgency."

Yet it doesn't always have to be that dramatic. All he's saying, basically, is that the next year can be even more difficult than the last one.

Teams change. Players change. Roles change.

And that's what we're here to examine, as graduations have commenced, rosters—transfers and other incoming/outgoing talent—are largely figured out and we can really begin looking at 2015-16 with a clearer understanding.

These are some players who find themselves in new positions. For one reason or another, their games will have to adjust. It may be too much to bear.

They are the ones most at risk of letdowns this coming season.

Anthony Gill, Virginia

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Perhaps if any of the guys on this list is prepared to step up his game, as required, it's Gill.

The Cavaliers surprisingly lost Justin Anderson to the NBA draft. But they also played without him for a chunk of last season because of injury.

Gill should be one of the most versatile players in the ACC and the country. The 6'8" senior is already a defensive presence and will simply have to step up his scoring game for UVA because of Anderson's absence, even after he averaged career highs in points (11.6) and rebounds (6.5) last year.

Gill certainly has it in his heart and mind to overcome adversity. A 2014 profile of him by Cavalier Insider points out that "Gill suffered facial paralysis at birth. His parents divorced before he was a teenager. His mother was diagnosed with cancer when he was in high school..."

So building on Virginia's first-ever series of back-to-back 30-win seasons isn't the biggest obstacle he's ever faced. And, yes, he'll have help. Malcolm Brogdon is another defensive presence, and junior point guard London Perrantes has been a big part of the success, among others.

Anderson was a candidate for ACC Player of the Year, though, and senior forward Darion Atkins was voted ACC Defensive Player of the Year. (Brogdon was the coaches' choice.)

KenPom.com considered Gill the country's seventh-best player last year, though he could've had more fingerprints on the season-ending NCAA tournament loss to Michigan State, when he missed six of nine shots and had just six rebounds (he played just 30 minutes and fouled out).

He's going to have to find a way to be more selfish in the offense, considering UVA lost two of its last three games and Gill only took 21 shots (making 11).

A fascinating note of Gill's steady, humble game: In that aforementioned feature story, he lists Carmelo Anthony as his favorite player.

Kyle Wiltjer, Gonzaga

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There's no doubting Wiltjer's game or his ability to step it up.

He helped lead Gonzaga to the Elite Eight and was one of KenPom.com's top 10 players. It just remains to be seen if he'll end his senior year with a chance to step up the results either individually or as a team.

Wiltjer averaged 16.8 points and 6.2 boards while shooting 46.6 percent from the arc. The return of fellow big men Przemek Karnowski and Domas Sabonis will certainly bolster him inside. That could affect Wiltjer's individual numbers (not that he would necessarily mind that).

Throw in the fact that Gonzaga loses two very talented, experienced guards to graduation, and Gonzaga may have reached its ceiling. Kevin Pangos was a steady three-point threat. Gary Bell Jr. was a defensive stalwart.

But individually, Wiltjer will turn 23 on Oct. 20. He may not have been a high draft pick this year, but there's no saying he'll fare any better next season.

Kyle Collinsworth, Brigham Young

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Speaking of old guys, like Gonzaga's Kyle Wiltjer...Collinsworth will be 24 when the season starts.

Last winter he became a triple-double machine, breaking the NCAA single-season record with six. He needs just one more to become the career leader.

To which it should be said, good luck.

It's not that Collinsworth won't be productive. Just perhaps in different ways. This year's Cougars may just require him to do much more scoring, especially as the revamped team lost a variety of role players along with star scorer Tyler Haws.

As Bleacher Report's Kerry Miller noted recently (via LocalNews7.com), "According to KenPom.com, Collinsworth only attempted 22.4 percent of the shots taken while he was on the floor. Compare that to 32.8 percent for Haws if you need proof that there are field-goal attempts there for the taking."

This season could be a little more draining for Collinsworth, somewhat akin to LeBron James in the NBA Finals with the battered Cleveland Cavaliers. The 6'7'' senior will have a new group around him after 10 players left the BYU program following the 2014–15 season (four graduations, two transfers, three two-year Mormon missions).

BYU received some good news that Nate Austin received an NCAA medical hardship waiver, so some experienced post play returns. Austin has a knack for hitting 17-foot jumpers, so that affords Collinsworth a chance at some relatively easy assists.

But aside from streaky three-point shooter Chase Fischer, there's just not much easy scoring around. Collinsworth will have to work even harder to get that history-making double-double.

Gonzaga being typical Gonzaga and the steady rise of Pepperdine (which beat BYU in both regular-season meetings last year) could also make it tough just to get back to the NCAA tournament.

Nigel Hayes, Wisconsin

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There's nothing worse than entering the locker room of a team that just lost an NCAA tournament game.

In the blink of an eye, a season's over. Coaches often have to justify the year or be scrutinized about whether they're leaving (remember Roy Williams' Kansas-North Carolina saga?). Players are bidding farewell to new lives or the pros.

Well, not many guys were as harsh on themselves as Hayes was after the championship game loss to Duke.

"You watched that game," Wisconsin's affable Hayes told reporters afterward. "I'm nowhere near good enough to do anything but come back."

So while national POY Frank Kaminsky graduated and Sam Dekker had no reasonable choice but to leave Madison a year early, back is the stenographer-loving Hayes. He was a timely shooter who ranked third on the team in scoring (12.4) and second in rebounds (6.2), and he'll have all of him tested to find the right words—and actions—in trying to get the Badgers back to the Final Four.

Hayes said after the Duke game that it's not all on him.

"Coach Ryan and the coaching staff does a great job," Hayes told reporters. "Guys are leaving, guys are coming in. The type of program that we have, guys will work hard. Guys will get better. I have no doubt we'll be able to be as good as we were this year, maybe even better."

Hayes will have a lot of leadership on his shoulders this year, and he'll need the production to back it up.

Jakob Poeltl, Utah

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As some young college players unfortunately find out, sticking around doesn't always make the pro life (or at least the draft) any more rewarding.

Could Utah 7-footer Jakob Poeltl go from rocketing up-and-comer to "figured out" in a hurry?

Poeltl figures to be one of the key focal points for opponents and NBA evaluators this winter after a monster freshman year in which he went from Austrian unknown to a guy who held his own against Duke's Jahlil Okafor deep in the NCAA tournament.

Now, this will certainly be a different environment for Poeltl. He'll have to contend with much greater expectations. The Utes also lost a heck of a table-setter, as Delon Wright (KenPom.com's fourth-best player in 2014-15) graduated.

The Utes are famous for running the shot clock down. Now, Poeltl becomes an obvious first option, even as he contends with a new offense operator and (like the rest of the country) a shot clock that's now five seconds less. It could take some time to find a new rhythm.

Poeltl shot 68 percent from the field, fourth nationally. But he'll need to develop more moves. That's not to say he can't or won't. But you wonder if he'll ever have some moments when he could've just taken the awaiting NBA security without the risk of going into a sophomore slump.

Ben Simmons, LSU

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We all have kind of wondered what Ben Simmons was thinking. Really, Baton Rouge...for hoops?

But it's a more straightforward answer than one might figure. The team's associate head coach is his godfather.

The ongoing question is if the connection will be worth it. LSU lost Jarell Martin and Jordan Mickey to the NBA draft. So we know Simmons will have the ball a ton. But is that enough to foster enjoyment out of his likely one-year college tour?

The M&M boys averaged more than 30 points and nearly 20 rebounds. And still, the Tigers finished in a four-way tie for third place. Granted, Kentucky and Arkansas won't be as strong this year. But it stands to reason LSU will drop too.

Besides that, it remains to be seen if his 6'9" height—and how relatively little of that LSU has—will have coach Johnny Jones playing him out of position.

At least Simmons will have 6'4" Antonio Blakeney, a follow freshman. They combined for 21 points, leading the East team to a win at the McDonald's All American Game in April.

Devin Williams, West Virginia

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There seems to be little doubt Williams will have a big junior season.

But whether it'll be as fruitful as last year remains to be seen because West Virginia will have to replace some talented guards who helped make Williams' life awfully nice.

WVU, with coach Bob Huggins' survival-instincts mind, relied upon a wicked full-court press to make up for the team's own scoring inefficiencies. Williams, a 6'9" forward, was often found trailing and could produce easy baskets out of the frenzy that Juwan Staten and Gary Browne built.

Rebuilding a Sweet 16 bid won't be easy, especially in a Big 12 conference that only seems to have gotten stronger throughout, especially when considering how many guys top-tier teams Kansas, Oklahoma and Iowa State (except for new head coach Steve Prohm) brought back.

Williams should have a huge individual season in obviously extended minutes. He was two doubles away from averaging a double-double, even as he used only 60 percent of the minutes available to him (not to mention 19 percent of the shots, sixth on the team).

But he'll have to do something about foul trouble too. While he drew about seven fouls over 40-minute spans, he was charged with 4.7.

Time on the bench this year would be exponentially more frustrating for Williams and his team.

Armani Moore, Tennessee

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Sometimes you've got to feel for a guy. He gets it all figured out, but then something pulls the rug out from under him.

We'll see if that's how it feels this season for the fashionably first-named Moore, who posted career-best numbers as a junior but saw a couple of talented teammates leave—and now he also has a new head coach in Rick Barnes.

Tennessee (which went 16-16 last year) lost top KenPom.com producer (and co-captain with Moore) Josh Richardson to graduation. Tariq Owens and Willie Carmichael III left after one year.

And the whole pile of circumstances could spell some frustration for Moore, who started all 32 games and averaged a team-best 6.8 rebounds. He led UT in rebounding or blocks 20 times, scoring seven after never producing double figures in points during his first two years.

There is hope, though, as the venture to Rocky Top could be good for Barnes and an increasingly disenfranchised fanbase. The biggest difference Moore and the Volunteers could see is that old coach Donnie Tyndall rarely played man-to-man defense, while that's usually what Barnes employed at the University of Texas.

Moore is an energetic, emotional player who sometimes can get a little too carried away when it comes to passing or holding on to the ball. It'll be an interesting development to see how Barnes reins him in and bonds with him.

Kris Dunn, Providence

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It's easy to feel guilty discussing Dunn because it feels like he's playing with fire.

Why return when—let's face it here—it seemed like a big NBA payday awaited?

Last year Dunn averaged nearly 16 points and eight assists in helping to invigorate a proud program. He's a passing machine. But then the Friars lost LaDontae Henton and Carson Desrosiers to graduation, and Tyler Harris left for Auburn after averaging about 10 points and four boards.

Dunn will need 6'8" Ben Bentil to have a big follow-up year, though coach Ed Cooley does have a good recruiting class.

But the clock is ticking on Dunn, and so might be good fortune. Shoulder injuries have already ended a couple of his seasons.

He was projected as a first-round draft pick.
  
Look for Dunn to try to take more threes this year after shooting just 35 percent last winter. But was developing that piece of his game really deserving of another season?

Tyler Ulis, Kentucky

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The picture's meant as a compliment. It's jarring and admirable how much a freshman can care.

Ulis, of course, was no ordinary freshman on no ordinary basketball team. He led Kentucky in assists per game (3.6) and was playing 20-plus minutes per game in the NCAA tournament for a goliath that was undefeated until the bitter end.

Then most of his team left, though Ulis opted to stay and called his return "unfinished business" (h/t CoachCal.com).

Undoubtedly, Ulis is a competitor. He hit a three-pointer by his team's bench that bolstered a rally against Notre Dame in the NCAA tournament.

And it's not surprising he wants to win a title. Perhaps it's obvious he had to return to Lexington to develop another season before turning pro.

But it's interesting how outspoken he was, considering all the Wildcats the team lost. If he somehow finds a way to make this team as fun or successful, he'll actually be able to outdo all of the critics who think UK will naturally be down this year.

Ulis may have unrealistic expectations for the Wildcats more than anything.