Can San Antonio Spurs Pull Another NBA Draft Miracle?
The San Antonio Spurs didn't have to do a whole lot of thinking about the draft in 1997. Grabbing Tim Duncan with the first overall pick was the closest thing to a no-brainer since the organization selected David Robinson at that same spot 10 years earlier.
A little timing and luck can go a long way toward building a dynasty.
But the drafts since Duncan's introduction have been instrumental in their own way, emerging as the franchise's single-most reliable strategy for adding complementary talent for the better part of the last two decades. Where conventional team-building often turns to the free-agent or trade markets, San Antonio has made its living at the end of the first round.
| Year | Pick | Player |
| 1997 | 1 | Tim Duncan |
| 1998 | 24 | Felipe Lopez |
| 2001 | 28 | Tony Parker |
| 2002 | 26 | John Salmons |
| 2003 | 28 | Leandro Barbosa |
| 2004 | 28 | Beno Udrih |
| 2005 | 28 | Ian Mahinmi |
| 2007 | 28 | Tiago Splitter |
| 2008 | 26 | George Hill |
| 2010 | 20 | James Anderson |
| 2011 | 29 | Cory Joseph |
| 2013 | 28 | Livio Jean-Charles |
| 2014 | 30 | Kyle Anderson |
This time, the Spurs will look to make similar magic with the 26th overall pick. So far removed from the lottery, it's tempting to bet against the addition of a real difference-maker. High-value acquisitions at this juncture of the draft are rare indeed—at least when you're talking about any team other than San Antonio.
General manager R.C. Buford and his scouting staff have made a habit of finding superior talent long after such talent was supposed to be available. They took Tony Parker with the 28th pick in 2001 and added Manu Ginobili with 57th overall pick in 1999. Starting center Tiago Splitter arrived via 2007's 28th pick and demonstrated the effectiveness of San Antonio's patented "draft-and-stash" strategy.
The last time San Antonio owned the 26th pick (in 2008), it selected point guard George Hill and thereby acquired the centerpiece of the trade that later brought Kawhi Leonard to the team. Hill went on to become the Indiana Pacers' starting floor general. The Spurs also selected Goran Dragic and Luis Scola with late second-round picks before sending them on their ways to impressive careers with other teams.
There's a pattern here, and it may be an ongoing one. Only time will tell if Kyle Anderson—last summer's selection—will develop into the Boris Diaw replacement he's fancied to be. And it remains to be seen what becomes of overseas assets like 2013 first-rounder Livio Jean-Charles. The list of unlikely draft heroes may well grow.
And it could find some company in this June's selection, too.
The Needs
As of this month's draft, the Spurs won't be 100-percent certain about what happens during free agency. Restricted free agent Kawhi Leonard is likely to return, but the guesswork grows more difficult in other instances. Danny Green, Marco Belinelli and Cory Joseph will all be on the market. Meanwhile, Duncan and Ginobili are both mulling retirement decisions.
By most estimates, that means the rotation could have any number of needs—in the frontcourt, backcourt and on the wing. At the very least, there could be an immediate demand for added depth, particularly if Anderson needs another year or two to continue his development.
| Player | 2015-16 Contract Status |
| Tony Parker | $13,437,500 (Signed through 2017-18) |
| Tim Duncan | Unrestricted FA |
| Tiago Splitter | $8,500,000 (Signed through 2016-17) |
| Boris Diaw | $7,500,000 (Non-guaranteed offers through 2017-18) |
| Manu Ginobili | Unrestricted FA |
| Danny Green | Unrestricted FA |
| Patty Mills | $3,578,947 (Signed through 2016-17) |
| Kawhi Leonard | Restricted FA (Qualifying offer of $4,433,683) |
| Marco Belinelli | Unrestricted FA |
| Aron Baynes | Restricted FA (Qualifying offer of $2,596,250) |
| Cory Joseph | Restricted FA (Qualifying offer of $3,034,892) |
| Jeff Ayers | Unrestricted FA |
| Kyle Anderson | $1,142,879 (Team options through 2017-18) |
| Matt Bonner | Unrestricted FA |
| Reggie Williams | Non-guaranteed $1,185,784 |
Put simply, this draft could have some near-term impact.
That doesn't mean the Spurs will look to rush an unready prospect. So long as this team remains even loosely in the title hunt, rookie minutes will be hard to come by. Even if the next Parker or Ginobili is to be had at No. 26, it may be a few years before said prospect pans out.
In a perfect world, however, San Antonio would get contributions from their draftee sooner rather than later. Waiting is fine. Immediate help is better.
One could safely assume one of the club's swingmen (Green, Ginobili or Belinelli) won't return. That would leave the most glaring deficit on the wing, either starting alongside or backing up Leonard.
It's also possible Matt Bonner's playing days are over, so there could be some minutes for another big man (depending—again—on what happens with the organization's free-agent pursuits). The need for a big man would become even more acute if restricted free agent Aron Baynes goes elsewhere.
Tony Parker and Patty Mills are both under contract, but a potential replacement for Joseph isn't out of the question either.
Rather than looking to fill a particular position, the Spurs may look to add a style of player—perhaps another defensive ace, perhaps an athletic big man to counter the Blake Griffins and DeAndre Jordans of the NBA world. This is also a team that loves deploying three-point shooters—an especially acute need if one of those swingmen leaves.
Given that kind of demand, what might the supply look like?
The Scenarios
San Antonio's front office always seems to know things other experts don't, and that makes speculation difficult. Unless one is a fly on the wall of the organization's draft war room and privy to its ongoing deliberations, everything else is just guesswork that may wind up being way off base.
It isn't for lack of good information. It's just that there's a reason this franchise has so consistently pulled rabbits from its hat of prospective NBA talent. It does things differently.
Historically, that strategy has often involved foreign players, especially when a draft-and-stash situation arises. There are a couple of centers who fit the profile, and both of them hail from Eastern Europe—a region with which the Spurs are well familiar. Arturas Gudaitis and Nikola Milutinov come from Lithuania and Serbia, respectively. Their numbers aren't amazing, but experts have them going early in the second round.
It's certainly not inconceivable San Antonio's people value one of these guys more than those experts do. And nor would it be unreasonable for Gudaitis or Milutinov to spend another year or two overseas honing their skills.
Such a scenario ultimately depends on whether the Spurs' front office is particularly keen on a guy with whom the rest of the league is—perhaps—less familiar.
Bleacher Report draft expert Jonathan Wasserman offered me his thoughts on potential Spurs targets, adding another couple of international names to the mix:
"Macedonia's Cedi Osman is staying in the draft and could be a stash option for San Antonio. He played big minutes alongside Dario Saric against quality competition in Euroleague. He's a 6'8" wing who can handle the ball, pass and knock down open shots. Center Guillermo Hernangomez is another international name to watch at No. 26. He was one of the most productive young players in the Spanish ACB, and he received plenty of exposure playing next to Kristaps Porzingis for Sevilla. If the Spurs pick from the NCAA pool, Louisville's Terry Rozier could be in the conversation. They met him at the combine. He's a tough, high-character, defensive-minded guard who's at his best attacking the rim in the half court or transition.
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Rozier would be a particularly logical option if San Antonio's convinced Joseph is going elsewhere in free agency, a distinct possibility if he's looking for a significant raise and/or increased role. He probably wouldn't become an instant sixth-man, but he could certainly develop into another George Hill type.
There are others from the NCAA ranks who could potentially make an immediate impact. Swingmen Justin Anderson (Virginia) and Anthony Brown (Stanford) could both offer a valuable two-way presence off the bench. And if we've learned anything about San Antonio's ability to develop talent, either of those guys could turn into a regular member of the rotation.
If the Spurs are more interested in a playmaker who might eventually replace some of Ginobili's skill set, they could be drawn to North Carolina's J.P Tokoto, a 6'5" shooting guard who's already worked out for the team.
It's also possible the Spurs look to trade up as they did in 2011, when they pried Leonard away from the Indiana Pacers. The organization has certainly been doing due diligence on prospects being taken long before the 26th pick—including Spaniard Mario Hezonja, who will almost certainly be off the board after the first 10 picks.
San Antonio may not have a wealth of tradable assets, but it could comfortably enough part ways with someone like Tiago Splitter if it meant landing a prized prospect. Professional scorer Patty Mills might also be expendable, but few others (Parker, Diaw, Anderson) are even under contract.
Trading up to land someone like Hezonja may be the club's surest path to another draft-day miracle. But prospects rarely come with guarantees, even when taken among the lottery selections. That San Antonio has somehow struck gold on multiple occasions is a testament its front office staff.
It's a staff that knows which personalities will best fit with head coach Gregg Popovich's one-of-a-kind operation. And it's a staff that invariably finds way to add the right guy.
Delayed gratification is a big part of this organization's thinking, so there's no telling when it will in fact reap the dividends of the 2015 draft. It may be next season. It may be a while from now.
But when the final choice matures and finds his stride, he could well be the next exhibit in a lineup of mounting evidence for San Antonio's managerial magic.
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