US Open 2015: Last-Minute Odds, Picks and Projections
The pairings have been set, the course has been scrutinized and the biggest stars in golf have all descended upon University Place, Washington, in preparation for the 2015 U.S. Open.
This year's tournament at Chambers Bay, which runs from June 18-21, is shaping up to be a must-watch. The course poses a unique and unfamiliar challenge, though the 20-something superstars look poised to continue their takeover of the game, and the veterans are still out there swinging.
Before the tournament gets underway Thursday, take a look at the last-minute storylines, odds, picks and predictions. Then clear your calendar and get ready for the drama to unfold.
The Odds Are in Rory's Favor
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It's probably not a surprise to hear this, but Rory McIlroy is the one to beat at Chambers Bay, at least according to the oddsmakers.
Odds Shark has McIlroy as the 7-1 favorite to take home his second U.S. Open trophy, his fifth major overall. With the pressure of the Masters and the Career Slam in the rearview mirror for the time being, McIlroy is feeling confident about his chances as well.
He missed the cut in the last two tournaments he's played, but after taking a quick week off and getting in some practice, he's not worried.
"I feel like I can have a summer not too dissimilar to last year," McIlroy said last week, according to James Corrigan of the Telegraph. Considering McIlroy won two majors last summer, that's bad news for his competitors.
Just trailing McIlroy in the odds are Jordan Spieth (8-1), Phil Mickelson (16-1) and Dustin Johnson, Rickie Fowler and Justin Rose (18-1).
How Will Rory's "Rivals" Fare?
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After Rory McIlroy's domination last summer, everyone has been searching for players who can rival him on a consistent basis. Recently, the "rival" label has been handed to other 20-something stars like Jordan Spieth and Rickie Fowler.
Considering Spieth won the Masters in April and Fowler won the Players Championship in May, the "rivalry" hype has reached a fever pitch heading into the U.S. Open.
Spieth won his first major this year at the age of 21 and should be considered a real threat for his second one this weekend. The No. 2 golfer in the Official World Golf Rankings, Spieth has finished in the top three in two of his last three tournaments.
He also has an advantage on the rest of the field: His caddy, Michael Greller, who taught sixth grade nearby, caddied at Chambers Bay during the summer.
Fowler—who will be playing with Tiger Woods the first two days—hasn't played well since winning the Players Championship last month. But considering he finished in the top five in all four majors last year, that's not too much of a concern.
The "rivalry" narrative still seems a bit suspect—McIlroy's resume is far too stacked—but still, look for a confident Spieth and Fowler to be factors this weekend.
Can the Pros Handle Chambers Bay?
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There are always a lot of unknowns heading into a major; we've seen time and again that any golfer can win on any given Sunday. However, this week the biggest unknown might just be the course itself.
Chambers Bay is relatively new—the British, links-style course opened in 2007, and this is the first major that's been held there. Pros like familiarity, so this will make them uncomfortable. Ian Poulter has already claimed several players are unhappy with the course, tweeting, "Well several players have played Chambers Bay in prep for US Open. The reports back are its a complete farce. I guess someone has to win."
USGA officials always like to make the U.S. Open courses tough, but as Luke Kerr-Dineen of For The Win pointed out, the current state of the greens suggests this could be a case similar to the 2004 U.S. Open at Shinnecock, where the officials pushed things too far and the course was nearly unplayable.
While the unexpected bounces and unknown elements of Chambers Bay should lead to some frustrated competitors and high-scoring rounds, expect it to produce thrilling scoreboard tension and prevent a runaway performance like Martin Kaymer's last year at Pinehurst.
The pros will complain, and there will be plenty of bogeys and meltdowns. But it will ultimately make Sunday exciting, which will be good for those watching.
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Tiger Woods Will Continue to Struggle
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It's likely to be another rough week for the 14-time major champion.
Tiger Woods' top-20 finish at the Masters left hope that his game was finally starting to click, but his last two tournaments have quelled that excitement: He finished tied for 69th at the Players Championship and 71st at the Memorial Tournament presented by Nationwide.
While it's too early to assume Woods will never win a golf tournament again, there is no indication whatsoever that his two-year victory and seven-year major droughts will end this weekend in Chambers Bay.
In fact, Woods' struggles are likely to only be compounded by his unfamiliarity with the difficult course. "Every hole seems like it is uphill," he told reporters after a practice round.
Somehow that seems fitting for Woods, whose entire comeback is an uphill battle right now. Expect him to barely make the cut and be a non-factor by Sunday afternoon.
Martin Kaymer Won't Repeat as Champion
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Martin Kaymer's U.S. Open performance last year was one for the ages: The German opened at Pinehurst with unfathomable back-to-back 65s and took all of the drama away from Sunday afternoon with an eight-stroke victory.
Don't expect him to do the same thing this week at Chambers Bay.
The two-time major champion and former No. 1 hasn't played well recently, missing the cut in four of his last seven tournaments. And repeating at the U.S. Open is notoriously rare: The last player to defend his title was Curtis Strange in 1989.
Plus, it sounds like the 30-year-old is looking toward another Open this season: The Open Championship in July.
"The whole atmosphere around St Andrews is just so pure, so natural," Kaymer said, per Ewan Murray of the Guardian. "I have thought about the Open since January or February because I think I have a chance."
Look for 2013 U.S. Open champ Justin Rose to be much more of a threat than Kaymer. Rose finished as the runner-up at Memorial earlier this month.
Is Phil Mickelson Ready to Win His Career Grand Slam?
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Another U.S. Open, another chance for Phil Mickelson to fill in the biggest gap on his resume and win the major that has eluded him his entire career.
Watch out, Chambers Bay: Mickelson is coming for you.
The 45-year-old has finished as the runner-up in the last two majors, so he can still bring it on the big stages. Plus, he has put in his homework to prepare for this challenging and uncharted course.
"I'm pleased I've developed a game plan for each hole and how I'm going to get to certain pins," he said earlier this month after finishing in third place at the Memorial, as reported by Iain Carter of BBC Golf.
You've likely heard that Lefty has finished as the runner-up at the U.S. Open six times in his career, most recently two years ago. Look for him to contend until the end once again this year.
Who Are the Dark Horses?
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A 36-year-old Argentinian golfer named Fabian Gomez, who hadn't been a serious factor all year on the PGA Tour, won by four strokes last week at the FedEx St. Jude Classic.
So, really, it's safe to say that dark horses are everywhere heading into Chambers Bay this weekend, but here are a few players to really watch closely:
Sergio Garcia finished tied for second at the Players Championship last month. With his great driving and chipping, the 35-year-old Spaniard is a threat to finally win his first major—if he can keep his patience, that is.
Also look out for Patrick Reed. The polarizing 24-year-old hasn't done much of note in the past couple of months, but he loves the big stage and also has the benefit of having played this course as an amateur back in 2010.
And don't count out Ernie Els. The South African loves difficult golf courses, as evidenced by his two U.S. Open and two British Open titles. Considering this is a U.S. Open that is expected to play like a British Open, the 45-year-old should be comfortable despite the fact that his game has been off lately.
And the Pick Is...
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Winning back-to-back majors is incredibly difficult, and no player has won the Masters and the U.S. Open in the same year since Tiger Woods in 2002.
But despite that, I still think this is going be another weekend to remember for Jordan Spieth.
The 21-year-old has been playing spectacular golf on a weekly basis this year, with six top-three finishes in his last 10 starts. Plus, he's coming into this U.S. Open with the right mindset: happy about his Masters victory but hungry for more.
"You can't win a Grand Slam unless you win the first. So I'm the only one with that opportunity this year," he said, per Steve DiMeglio of USA Today. "So I'm going to go ahead and focus on this week and see if I can put myself in contention."
Considering his caddie's comfort with the course and Spieth's clarity and confidence, this young American is perfectly poised to continue his special season, win his second major and continue to skyrocket to superstardom.
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