Willie Cauley-Stein Seems Destined to Be Lottery Darling Ahead of 2015 NBA Draft
He's 7'0", runs like a thoroughbred racehorse, and it seems like every 2015 NBA draft lottery team has a craving for him.
Willie Cauley-Stein shined as an acrobatic, shot-blocking weapon for the Kentucky Wildcats from 2012-2015, and he stands out as the best all-around defender in this year's crop of prospects. His ability to play in an uptempo system and guard opponents of all sizes makes for an attractive, compatible commodity.
As such, a flock of NBA front offices are seemingly smitten with him and are angling for his services.
The New York Knicks are scheduled to work Cauley-Stein out Tuesday, per ESPN.com's Ian Begley, and the Sacramento Kings (among others) have already brought him in. Other teams, like the Boston Celtics, have expressed interest in moving up in the draft, and Indiana Pacers president Larry Bird famously referred to WCS as a $100 million player.
Does he deserve all this buzz? What exactly is driving his draft appeal all the way to the top-five range, and where does he fit the best?
| MIN | PTS | REB | AST | BLK | STL | FG% | FT% | O-Rating | D-Rating | |
| 2012-13 | 23.6 | 8.3 | 6.2 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | .621 | .372 | 106.7 | 91.1 |
| 2013-14 | 23.8 | 6.8 | 6.1 | 0.7 | 2.9 | 2.2 | .596 | .482 | 122.8 | 91.5 |
| 2014-15 | 25.9 | 8.9 | 6.4 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 2.2 | .572 | .617 | 119.8 | 80.0 |
On-Ball and Weak-Side Rim Protection
Cauley-Stein has a ton of work to do before he earns consideration as a $100 million player, but it's not hard to see why teams are drawn to his defense.
Athletic post defenders have become increasingly vital in today's NBA because the league's rim-attackers are more explosive than ever. The basket is under constant siege, and many clubs don't have adequate fortification in the frontcourt.
Kentucky's shot-swatting big man presents an immediate answer for this problem.
In half-court settings, he shows solid footwork and discipline as an on-ball stopper. He's not as foul-prone (3.1 fouls per 40 minutes) as his less experienced Wildcat teammate Karl-Anthony Towns, who committed 5.6 fouls per 40 minutes.
Watch how he doesn't fall for the pump fake of Wisconsin's Frank Kaminsky, forcing the All-American into a tough shot:
Some of Cauley-Stein's best work comes as a help defender as well. He has terrific closing speed and leaping ability, and he comes out of nowhere to obliterate slashers who thought they had a clear path. Perhaps you've seen some of the highlights.
"The combination of his physical profile and athleticism makes him a huge asset in rim protection," Rafael Uehara of Upside & Motor noted. "Cauley-Stein is very aggressive rotating off the weak side and can elevate off the ground in a pinch."
Cauley-Stein can do much more than defend post-ups and fly in for weak-side rejections.
Positional Versatility and Pick-and-Roll Prowess
Thanks to his quick feet and tremendous instincts, Cauley-Stein has the talent to defend guards and wings in addition to bigs. He can hedge and recover quickly to blow up a pick-and-roll attempt or switch straight-up against a ball-handler in the middle of a possession.
His ability to limit the effectiveness of pick-and-rolls will give his team a ton of flexibility when it comes to defensive personnel and rotations.
USA Today's Derek Bodner gave some context to the magnitude of Cauley-Stein's aptitude in this department:
"...Acquiring players who could play the pick and roll has become a major focus for NBA front offices. It's only natural, then, that defending the pick and roll has incredible value as well, and there is perhaps no big man in this draft more equipped to defend pick and rolls than Cauley-Stein.
Cauley-Stein's as quick and athletic as any 7-footer in basketball. He has physical traits which not only allow him to defend perimeter-oriented big men but also allow him to jump out on ball handlers on the pick and roll, slow them down, and recover back to his man.
"
To appreciate Cauley-Stein's knack for stymying speedy playmakers, here's a sample of him against Notre Dame's Jerian Grant, one of the most athletic players in the draft. Watch him change direction on the initial foray and then react swiftly to get a deflection and alter the shot:
Even if he can't defend all five positions on a full-time basis, it's tantalizing to see someone who can at least spend time at each spot. He's not a finished product because he could use some more bulk and become a better defensive rebounder, but he's as sparkling a defensive prodigy as you'll find.
Offensive Value and Concerns
WCS has some value offensively—namely his ability to do a pretty good DeAndre Jordan impression near the rim. If he's near the cup and the ball is in the air, he'll elevate and demolish it. In addition, Cauley-Stein has shown brief glimpses of a baby hook shot and a short-range jumper.
However, it's a bit concerning for a high-lottery team to pursue a player who offers little more than offensive rebounding, alley-oops and put-backs. Cauley-Stein didn't show much development during his three campaigns in Lexington, failing to reach double-digits in any season.
"It's not only the lack of consistent offense that's concerning; it's the lack of progress on the offensive end over three years which concerns me more," Ed Isaacson of Hoops Habit told Larry Vaught of Vaughtsviews.com.
However, he has a chance to eventually outperform guys like Jordan and Tyson Chandler when it comes to offensive skill because his shooting does look better. In a couple of years, Cauley-Stein could speed up his delivery and become a respectable part-time shooter.
Overall, draft wooers will have to roll the dice on Cauley-Stein's offensive outlook. That's the price they'll pay for his boa-constrictor defense.
Landing Spot
Among his primary suitors (Orlando Magic, Knicks, Kings, Celtics if they trade up), where is Cauley-Stein most likely to land, and where is his best fit?
The answer to the first question is the New York Knicks.
Firstly, the Knicks will draft before those other teams (unless the Celtics trade for their pick), so Phil Jackson and Co. will have the first crack at WCS. Cauley-Stein simply fits a critical, pressing need at center for New York, and he can bring back some of the grit the Knicks possessed during the Chandler era.
Bleacher Report Knicks savant Dan Favale explained why the Knicks should scoop him up:
"...He's an instant, culture-changing upgrade for New York's 28th-ranked defense. The Knicks admittedly didn't struggle with rim protection last season—they ranked eighth in restricted-area defense—but that's only because their porous perimeter prevention invited three-point attempts. ...His 7.1 percent block rate ranked 12th in the country among all players to log at least 1,000 total minutes, while his rebounding percentage (14.5) would have ranked first among any Knicks player to match his playing time.
"
This match would be a good one for Cauley-Stein as well because he'll have a substantial and important role but won't be asked to do anything out of his comfort zone. He'll complement Carmelo Anthony superbly on defense, and Melo will draw plenty of attention away from him on offense.
New York is a better landing spot for WCS than places like Orlando or Sacramento because Anthony provides better floor-spacing than DeMarcus Cousins or Nikola Vucevic. However, Boston would be his best home because it offers the best combination of frontcourt spacing, perimeter defenders and uptempo style.
Cauley-Stein would work nicely alongside forwards like Kelly Olynyk and Jared Sullinger, and he would feast off the aggressiveness of perimeter players such as Marcus Smart and Avery Bradley. If Brad Stevens and Co. traded up to get him, it would be exceptionally beneficial for both parties.
Ultimately, Cauley-Stein's value merits top-five consideration, if only by a hair. And if he anchors the defense on a squad that eventually wins a title, it's a priceless investment.
Dan O'Brien covers the NBA draft for B/R. Follow him on Twitter: @DanielO_BR
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
