USC Football: The 1 Thing That Could Derail Trojans' Playoff Hopes

If all goes according to plan for USC in 2015, the Trojans will be playoff-bound, and quarterback Cody Kessler will be in New York for the Heisman finalist ceremony. 

But if we know anything about plans, it's that they're meant to go off the rails. What could derail USC's playoff hopes? One place to look is how Kessler has played in major games against ranked teams. 

Kessler was hailed as one of the most efficient quarterbacks in college football last season. Technically, that's true. Only Oregon's Marcus Mariota had a higher passer rating in the Pac-12 (181.75), and he won the Heisman Trophy. Few quarterbacks in the country had Kessler's 39-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. 

Those are the kinds of numbers that warrant offseason Heisman chatter, which Kessler is deservedly getting. However, there's a portion of Kessler's game that needs improving in 2015: performances against Associated Press Top 25 teams. To put it one way, Kessler was average in four of those games a year ago. 

	Completion Percentage	Yards Per Attempt	Yards Per Game	TD	INT	Passer Rating
Vs. Unranked Teams	71.1 (2nd)	9.3 (2nd)	321.1 (2nd)	35 (1st)	2 (T-3rd)	184.97 (2nd)
Vs. Ranked Teams	66.7 (3rd)	6.6 (6th)	234.0 (6th)	4 (11th)	3 (7th)	127.53 (7th)

To break down what Kessler was facing even further, here are the four teams USC played in 2014 that were ranked in the AP poll at the time of the game, according to ESPN.com. Additionally, here are the passing defense and scoring defense numbers for each of those teams: 

Opponent (Date)	Result	Kessler's Stats	Opponent Pass D	Opponent Scoring D
@ No. 13 Stanford (Sept. 13)	W 13-10	15-of-22, 135 Yards	3.7 YPA	6.5 PPG
@ No. 10 Arizona (Oct. 11)	W 28-26	20-of-30, 185 Yards, 1 TD, 1 INT	7.6 YPA	28.5 PPG
@ No. 19 Utah (Oct. 25)	L 24-21	24-of-33, 264 Yards, 2 TD, 1 INT	7.3 YPA	21.9 PPG
@ No. 9 UCLA (Nov. 22)	L 38-20	22-of-34, 214 Yards, 1 TD, 1 INT	6.6 YPA	27.5 PPG

Opponents' defensive stats were adjusted for the time of year when they played the Trojans. For reference, middle-of-the-pack college football defenses allowed about seven yards per pass attempt and just under 27 points per game in 2014. 

There are also nuances to these games in which the outcome isn't always reflected by Kessler's stats. For instance, his best game against a ranked opponent, Utah, resulted in a loss because the Utes scored a go-ahead touchdown with eight seconds left.

Meanwhile, the win over Arizona, in which Kessler was average statistically speaking, came in dramatic fashion. The Wildcats staged a 13-point fourth-quarter comeback and would have won had it not been for a missed 37-yard field goal. 

As such, recording "wins" as a quarterback stat is dangerous territory. It's OK for context, but it doesn't tell the whole story. That said, the numbers are what they are, and they say Kessler was so-so last year against ranked teams. Yet only one of those teams had a truly stout defense: Stanford. 

Kessler is fully aware that he hasn't been at his best when he needed to be. 

"That’s something I take personally because those games I didn’t perform well, those are the games we lost," Kessler told Ted Miller of ESPN.com. "I’m very hard on myself. I’ve been watching those games this offseason. The one thing I want to do is be consistent in every game."

Why is all of this important? The road to the playoff doesn't get much easier for the Trojans in 2015. Three of the five key games listed below are on the road. Additionally, Andy Staples of Sports Illustrated has USC listed in "pivot-point games" against Stanford and Notre Dame. 

Opponent	Date
Stanford	Sept. 19
at Arizona State	Sept. 26
at Notre Dame	Oct. 17
at Oregon	Nov. 21
UCLA	Nov. 28

It's also pertinent to note that USC plays in the Pac-12 South, which could very well be the more powerful division in the conference at the top. Plus, USC gets Oregon, Stanford and Washington—the teams that finished one through three in the North Division a year ago. 

As Phil Steele tweeted last month, USC has one of the hardest schedules of any school in the country: 

So it's not just that Kessler has to improve against AP-ranked teams; he could be put to the test several times depending on how the opposing defenses stack up. Also, USC's defensive line depth was a major concern during the spring. If there's one position that could cause headaches for the Trojans this season, it's the D-line. 

If USC finds itself in late-night #Pac12AfterDark shootouts regularly, that puts more pressure on Kessler to be even better than he was a year ago. 

Ben Kercheval is a lead writer for college football. All quotes cited unless obtained firsthand. All stats courtesy of cfbstats.com.