NBA Mock Draft 2015: Analyzing Riskiest Prospects and 1st-Round Predictions
There's an element of risk with every first-round draft pick in the NBA. Some are more risky than others.
Whether it's an inconsistent and short collegiate career, a historically concerning skill set or a history of poor off-the-court decisions, there are at least three players who could have serious bust potential.
Just below the table containing the full first-round mock draft, we examine the situations surrounding the three riskiest prospects in this year's class.
| 1 | Minnesota Timberwolves | Jahlil Okafor, C, Duke |
| 2 | Los Angeles Lakers | Karl-Anthony Towns, PF, Kentucky |
| 3 | Philadelphia 76ers | D'Angelo Russell, SG, Ohio State |
| 4 | New York Knicks | Emmanuel Mudiay, PG, China |
| 5 | Orlando Magic | Justise Winslow, SF, Duke |
| 6 | Sacramento Kings | Willie Cauley-Stein, C, Kentucky |
| 7 | Denver Nuggets | Kristaps Porzingis, PF, Latvia |
| 8 | Detroit Pistons | Mario Hezonja, SG/SF, Croatia |
| 9 | Charlotte Hornets | Kelly Oubre, SG, Kansas |
| 10 | Miami Heat | Stanley Johnson, SF, Arizona |
| 11 | Indiana Pacers | Myles Turner, C/PF, Texas |
| 12 | Utah Jazz | Frank Kaminsky, PF, Wisconsin |
| 13 | Phoenix Suns | Devin Booker, SG, Kentucky |
| 14 | Oklahoma City Thunder | Cameron Payne, PG, Murray State |
| 15 | Atlanta Hawks (from Brooklyn Nets) | Sam Dekker, SF, Wisconsin |
| 16 | Boston Celtics | Trey Lyles, PF, Kentucky |
| 17 | Milwaukee Bucks | Bobby Portis, PF, Arkansas |
| 18 | Houston Rockets (from New Orleans Pelicans) | Jerian Grant, PG, Notre Dame |
| 19 | Washington Wizards | Kevon Looney, PF, UCLA |
| 20 | Toronto Raptors | Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, SF, Arizona |
| 21 | Dallas Mavericks | Tyus Jones, PG, Duke |
| 22 | Chicago Bulls | Delon Wright, PG, Utah |
| 23 | Portland Trail Blazers | Montrezl Harrell, PF, Louisville |
| 24 | Cleveland Cavaliers | R.J. Hunter, SG, Georgia State |
| 25 | Memphis Grizzlies | Christian Wood, PF, UNLV |
| 26 | San Antonio Spurs | George Lucas de Paula, PG, Brazil |
| 27 | Los Angeles Lakers (from Houston Rockets) | Rashad Vaughn, SG, UNLV |
| 28 | Boston Celtics (from Los Angeles Clippers) | Justin Anderson, SF, Virginia |
| 29 | Brooklyn Nets (from Atlanta Hawks) | Chris McCullough, PF, Syracuse |
| 30 | Golden State Warriors | Robert Upshaw, C, Washington |
Kristaps Porzingis
Draft Express has Kristaps Porzingis going third to the Philadelphia 76ers. It's easy to see why. Porzingis is a legit 7'0" with a wingspan as wide as 7'6". He's got range on his jump shot out to the NBA three-point line and it's clear to see from any highlight reel that he is an above-average athlete—especially for his size.
NBA.com says: "[Porzingis] plays like a small forward in a body not unlike that of Kevin Durant, Giannis Antetokounmpo, or Anthony Davis."
That said, he's only 220 pounds and he seems to lack overall physicality when it comes to bumping and banging on the low post. In watching him play limited time against FC Barcelona and the mammoth Ante Tomic, Porzingis didn't look eager or able to hold his ground against a legitimate big in the paint.
This creates a couple of concerns: No. 1, can he add enough strength to his frame to take the rigors of the NBA? No. 2, does he have the type of mental makeup required to play physical?
We've seen other players with similar skill sets such as Jonathan Bender and Nikoloz Tskitishvili flame out in the NBA after a good amount of hype. Porzingis looks to have boom or bust written all over him. The 76ers will be much wiser to take D'Angelo Russell with this pick, unless the Minnesota Timberwolves or Los Angeles Lakers beat them to it.
Kelly Oubre
Kelly Oubre looks the part of an elite swingman. He's 6'6 ¾". He has a 7'2 ¼" wingspan and a smooth left-handed shooting stroke from outside. Oubre is also an elite athlete who can be a weapon in transition. So what's so risky about him?
Well, after one season with the Kansas Jayhawks, Oubre failed to produce like a big-time prospect. He averaged just 9.3 points, five rebounds and shot 35.8 percent from three-point range.
Don't get me wrong, this is a nice freshman season for a major college program, but hardly a year that says, pick me in the lottery and watch me tear it up as a rookie—or even second-year player. With the proper coaching and work ethic, there's no doubt Oubre can be a quality wing player, but he hasn't shown enough to warrant using a late lottery selection on him.
Still, it's going to happen. Hopefully he pans out for the Charlotte Hornets—or any team that drafts him—and proves this analysis false.
Robert Upshaw
Without question, Robert Upshaw has the size, athleticism and rim-protecting mentality to be a quality big man in the NBA. Were it not for his character concerns, he'd be a lottery pick.
Much like Miami Heat late bloomer Hasaan Whiteside, Upshaw is enormous. Upshaw stands 7'0", weighed in at 258 pounds at the NBA Scouting Combine and measured a 7'5 ½" wingspan. While playing for the Washington Huskies, Upshaw blocked 4.5 shots per game and pulled down 8.2 rebounds.
Unfortunately, Upshaw was kicked off the Huskies team in January. It was the second collegiate program from which Upshaw had been dismissed. He was also booted off the Fresno State Bulldogs program after three violations of the athletic department's policy.
During the predraft process, Upshaw has been grilled by teams as they attempt to find out what makes him tick, and if it's possible to work through his issues. He talked about the process in the interview below:
If a team can get Upshaw to mature and take his craft seriously, he could be the steal of this draft. The Golden State Warriors might just have the type of environment necessary to get that done.
Heights and weights per Draft Express unless otherwise noted.
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