Florida State Football: Does Everett Golson Have Legit Shot to Win 2015 Heisman?

It's never too early to talk about preseason Heisman Trophy contenders...or is it?

Bodog's latest Heisman numbers (h/t Odds Shark) have Florida State graduate transfer quarterback Everett Golson at 20-1 odds to win.

For context, Ohio State running back Ezekiel Elliott leads the way with 6-1 odds. Michigan State quarterback Connor Cook, Auburn quarterback Jeremy Johnson, Oklahoma running back Samaje Perine and Ohio State quarterback Braxton Miller, who may not even start for the Buckeyes, are also at 20-1 odds.

Mark Wallheiser/Associated Press

Mentioning Miller in the same breath as Golson brings up a crucial point: The issue at hand for the Notre Dame transfer is more closely aligned with whether he'll start in Week 1—not if he'll win the Heisman. 

There's been no indication that Golson will be handed the starting gig over front-runner Sean Maguire.

This has been Seminoles head coach Jimbo Fisher's stance even before it was announced that Golson was signing a grant-in-aid with the team. Earlier this month, Fisher elaborated on what he expects from his new quarterback (h/t Tom D'Angelo of the Palm Beach Post):

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From talking to him, he has a great background in ball. I was very impressed with that. It’s just a different language, hearing it over and over and to say it over and over, I think it will be very quick.

...

He’ll have a good grasp of a lot of the things we do. Will it be all of it? I don’t know that. That will all depend on him.

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Golson might not be starting over completely or learning things for the first time, but that doesn't mean what he is learning will be easy.

Fisher is one of the most demanding coaches in the country when it comes to quarterbacks. While that's paid dividends when it comes to the NFL draft—JaMarcus Russell, Christian Ponder, E.J. Manuel and Jameis Winston were first-round selections—it means a lot will be asked of Golson in a short amount of time.

Granted, Fisher will adjust his playbook to fit Golson's strengths. As Brendan Sonnone of the Orlando Sentinel wrote last month, Fisher has a history of modifying his playbook to fit the talent he has on the field:

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Since Fisher was an offensive coordinator at Cincinnati in 1999, he’s demonstrated a willingness to drastically change up his approach although he usually prefers a balanced offense. Winston averaged one run per every 5.87 passing attempts during his career, while more mobile quarterbacks like EJ Manuel and Christian Ponder averaged 3.01 and 3.59 passing attempts, respectively, for every carry. Golson himself averaged 3.58 passing attempts per run at Notre Dame.

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FSU's core concepts will remain the same, but there will be some wiggle room if it's clear Golson is emerging as the No. 1 guy.

Let's assume that ends up happening. What are Golson's Heisman odds as a starter?

The trend for recent winners has favored quarterbacks—in some instances, dual-threat quarterbacks—on good teams. If Florida State regresses in the win column in 2015, it would take an outstanding individual effort from Golson to warrant serious Heisman consideration.

Golson would need an electric year throwing the ball. In 2014, he tossed for 3,445 yards and 29 touchdowns. Those numbers don't stand out quite like they used to, but they're certainly solid. Golson would have to improve on those stats—for reference, Winston threw for 3,820 yards and 38 touchdowns before winning the Heisman in 2013—and significantly reduce the turnovers (22 last season).

While Golson is athletic and can scramble, running the ball isn't his game. He had 14 career rushing touchdowns at Notre Dame but averaged about 2.83 yards per carry.

He was far more polished as a passer, especially last season. Notably, he threw 25 straight completions in a win over Syracuse. Golson had his ball security problems, but the guy can straight-up throw it downfield.

A big part of the passing game is developing chemistry with new wide receivers. That's something Golson will have to master as well. There's loads of young talent at receiver, but that was also an area of frustration for Fisher in the spring.

To be sure, there's a lot of improvement Golson and FSU's receivers would have to show in a short amount of time.

The good news for Golson as it pertains to his Heisman chances is that several recent winners, including Winston, emerged out of nowhere. In other words, being the odds-on favorite in June doesn't necessarily translate into actually winning the award six months later.

That plays into any time it might take Golson to take over the offense—if he does at all.

That's why a lot of things would have to happen for Golson to even end up as a Heisman finalist, let alone a winner.

Ben Kercheval is a lead writer for college football. All quotes cited unless obtained firsthand. All stats courtesy of cfbstats.com.