2015 NBA Finals Predictions: Legacies, Storylines at Stake in Cavs vs. Warriors
There is no greater reward in basketball than the NBA's Larry O'Brien Championship Trophy.
But that coveted piece of hardware won't be the only thing at stake when the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers wage war on the game's biggest stage.
There are legacy implications for all parties involved. LeBron James is looking to simultaneously add a third ring to his collection while snapping Cleveland's decades-long championship drought. Stephen Curry is trying to script the ideal ending to what has been a dream-like season for him and the Dubs.
And those are only a few of the compelling storylines worth tracking over the coming days.
There are rookie coaches hoping to boost their already impressive resumes. There are free agents with Powerball-sized paychecks to collect if they can pass their biggest tests to date, along with fanbases dying to enjoy the incredibly elusive thrill of championship bliss.
We have pored over the many thrilling narratives this series has to offer and brought the most compelling ones to light. If you're searching for a reason to tune into the 2015 NBA Finals, we have eight fascinating ones to follow, plus predictions on how they'll play out.
First Finals Collision of Rookie Coaches Since Inaugural Season
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Critics can say what they want about Golden State head coach Steve Kerr and his NBA Finals counterpart, Cleveland's David Blatt. What these two have accomplished in their debut coaching campaigns is something that simply doesn't happen at this level.
The last time two first-year signal-callers piloted their respective clubs to the championship round was the only time it had to happen: the inaugural season of 1946-47, when everyone was a rookie. Current Miami Heat president of basketball operations Pat Riley was the last rookie coach to claim an NBA title, when he led the Los Angeles Lakers to gold in 1982.
Between Kerr's transition from the broadcast booth and Blatt's journey from overseas, each figured to face their fair share of adversity. Instead, the duo tallied a combined 120-44 record during the regular season.
Each helped his respective club sprint through its side of the postseason bracket. The Warriors suffered just three losses in three rounds against the West, while the Cavs steamrolled their Eastern Conference competition with a 12-2 mark.
Even more remarkable, Blatt and Kerr nearly found themselves on the same sideline this season. After Kerr signed on with the Warriors, he received a verbal agreement from Blatt—who led Maccabi Tel Aviv to the 2014 Euroleague title—to join his staff. But when the Cavs offered Blatt an interview for their coaching vacancy, Kerr allowed his would-be assistant to give it a shot.
"Had Steve not been willing to allow me to interview for the job, I'd be in Golden State right now," Blatt said, via Northeast Ohio Media Group's Chris Haynes. "It was by his good graces and the good graces of the Warriors to allow me to interview for the job because basically I had agreed already to go there."
Now, the two coaches find themselves entangled in a historical battle. But only one will etch his name in the history books. Since Kerr has a deeper roster at his disposal, he's the early favorite to enjoy that kind of ending.
Millions at Stake for Impending Free Agents
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With legacies on the line and a world title up for grabs, it's hard to imagine the prize pool getting any richer. But for the handful of impending free agents in this series, there's an underlying motivation for them to perform well on the game's grandest stage.
Well, actually, millions of motivations.
There is no greater negotiating platform than the NBA Finals. All eyes of the basketball world will be glued to this series. The exposure alone is enough to move these free-agency stocks.
But consider the other elements at play. Questions about how these players respond to unrelenting pressure will be answered over the coming weeks. So too will be their ability to compete with some of the league's elite.
Take Warriors do-it-all forward (and restricted-free-agent-to-be) Draymond Green, for instance. In Golden State's switch-happy defense, he's likely to spend time on LeBron James, Tristan Thompson and Kyrie Irving. And Green could be equally important at the opposite end, whether he's stretching the defense as a shooter, providing secondary scoring or greasing Golden State's offensive gears with his passing.
The 25-year-old has probably already secured a maximum contract. But he'll have a tremendous opportunity to silence any doubters in this championship bout.
There are more volatile stocks to monitor, particularly on Cleveland's side. Iman Shumpert, Tristan Thompson and Matthew Dellavedova are all slated to become restricted free agents. J.R. Smith can hit the open market by declining his $6.4 million player option for 2015-16.
Potential suitors likely already know which of these players they plan to pursue. But those positions will be strengthened or weakened over the next four-plus games. Given the talent of these players and the prominence of their expected roles, we're guessing far more money will be won than lost during this series.
Satisfaction for One Championship-Starved Fanbase
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Golden State's last NBA Finals appearance came in 1975. Kerr, the Warriors' 49-year-old head coach, had yet to celebrate his 10th birthday when Rick Barry powered the Dubs past Elvin Hayes, Wes Unseld and the then-Washington Bullets.
During the 39 years between Finals trips, Golden State won a total of seven playoff series. It missed the postseason party 29 times.
And yet, the Warriors faithful don't even qualify as the tortured fanbase in this series. Not with the city of Cleveland enduring the longest championship drought in American professional sports.
The city's last major title came when the Cleveland Browns captured the NFL championship in 1964. The Super Bowl wasn't even around back then—it debuted in 1967. The Cleveland Indians last celebrated a World Series victory in 1948.
As for the Cavs, who joined the NBA in 1970, they have yet to raise a championship banner. This is only their second Finals trip, both of which were booked on the strength of James' otherworldly talents.
James, who hails from nearby Akron, knows the area's pain all too well. In fact, he cited it as one of the primary reasons behind last summer's homecoming.
"My goal is still to win as many titles as possible, no question," James stated in an essay co-written with Sports Illustrated's Lee Jenkins. "But what's most important for me is bringing one trophy back to Northeast Ohio."
That trophy will soon scratch one of these decades-long itches. The pain stemming from the other will grow even more unbearable. That's probably good news for Golden State fans and the latest in a long line of gut punches for Clevelanders.
Golden Ending to Dubs' Dream Season
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Golden State's entire 2014-15 campaign was essentially one giant entry into the NBA's history books.
The Warriors became only the eighth team to ever post a double-digit point differential (plus-10.1). Their 67 wins tied for the sixth-most of all time. They were the first team since the 1980-81 Philadelphia 76ers to pace the NBA in both field-goal percentage and field-goal defense. They were first in defensive efficiency and second on offense, becoming only the third team in the last 38 years with top-two rankings in both, via NBA.com's John Schuhmann.
They didn't merely have a good year; they had an extraordinary one. But the narrative of this group as a historical power only works if it produces a championship ending.
To wit, the Warriors are only the 14th team to win at least 65 games and reach the NBA Finals. The previous 13 all captured the crown, according to ESPN Stats & Info.
Golden State's young nucleus of Green, Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Harrison Barnes could be very good for a long time. But there are no guarantees this core will ever have another chance like this.
The Warriors earned their NBA Finals ticket, but they also enjoyed copious amounts of good fortune. The Oklahoma City Thunder were pulled out of the championship ranks by Kevin Durant's nagging foot injury. The Dubs avoided both the Los Angeles Clippers and San Antonio Spurs—who ranked second and third, respectively, in point differential—during the postseason.
"It's been a dream season," Kerr said, via Antonio Gonzalez of the Associated Press. "Things have fallen into place over and over again."
Even now, the Dubs are catching the Cavs without Kevin Love (shoulder surgery) and with a hobbled Kyrie Irving (knee tendinitis). The deck is stacked for Golden State to keep seizing its opportunities and properly close out this magical run.
Litmus Test of Cleveland's Elite Defense
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It sounds strange saying this now, but at one point in the season, Cleveland's defense appeared to be a fatal flaw. The Cavs opened the campaign light on both rim protection and wing defenders, then their interior ranks were hit hard by Anderson Varejao's season-ending Achilles tear.
But Cleveland general manager David Griffin saw where his club needed help the most. And in a pair of January trades, the executive delivered both an intimidating paint presence (Timofey Mozgov) and a perimeter stopper (Iman Shumpert).
Over the past four-plus months, this once-maligned unit has become one of the Cavs' greatest strengths. They rank third in postseason defensive efficiency, which is a massive jump from their 20th-place ranking during the regular season. They lead all playoff teams in three-point percentage against (28.1), are tied for first in opponents' points per game (92.6) and sit second in field-goal percentage against (41.2).
But it's imperative to note who these numbers were compiled against. The East only confronted the Cavs with a not-quite-ready Boston Celtics team, a Chicago Bulls group that was never as good as the sum of its parts and an injury-riddled Atlanta Hawks.
The deep, explosive, sharpshooting Warriors are a different kind of offensive animal, as NBA.com's John Schuhmann pointed out:
"We may not know just how good the Cavs’ defense has become…until Thursday. No team takes advantage of open looks better than the Golden State Warriors, who led the regular season with effective field goal percentage of 54.7 percent on uncontested jumpers, and have led the playoffs with the same exact mark.
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Split-second blunders are killers against a Golden State offense that prioritizes movement of both player and ball. The Cavs also have to figure out where to hide an ailing Irving or hope Dellavedova can remain a defensive pest.
Against an offense this powerful, Cleveland's improved defense might still stick out as a vulnerability.
Validation for Stephen Curry's MVP Campaign
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Stephen Curry's standing as the "best player on the best team" is something of a double-edged sword.
On the one hand, it undoubtedly helped him become the franchise's first MVP since Wilt Chamberlain claimed the hardware as a Philadelphia Warrior in 1960. Rare was the MVP discussion involving Curry that didn't utilize that six-word phrase.
But the label also shifted some of the focus away from the individual. It briefly recognized Curry's personal heroics (23.8 points and 7.7 assists per game during the regular season), but it treated Golden State's team success as the most pivotal part of the conversation.
This is Curry's chance to prove the Warriors' triumphs are a byproduct of his brilliance and not the other way around.
Or rather, to keep proving that's the case. The Warriors were 17.1 points per 100 possessions better with Curry on the floor during the regular season. That split has narrowed during the playoffs (plus-3.7 points per 100 possessions), but his impact is both obvious and astounding.
"The thing with Steph is that you can never relax and you have to always be aware," Cavs associate head coach Tyronn Lue said, via Broderick Turner of the Los Angeles Times. "You can't never turn your head. You've got be locked into Steph Curry, because one mistake and he's going to make you pay."
Curry has been making defenders pay all postseason. He's second among playoff scorers with 29.2 points per game, and he's shooting an absurd 43.7 percent from distance—on 11.1 long-range looks per game.
He'll likely face off with the lanky Shumpert to start, but the Cavs will almost certainly deploy James as a Curry-stopper in spurts. If Curry can conquer those challenges, he'll show his greatness extends well beyond leading an elite squad.
More Than A(nother) Ring on the Line for LeBron
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So much for practicing patience during James' first season back with the Cavs. Now that the King is back for a fifth consecutive NBA Finals—something only players from the early Boston Celtics dynasty, such as Bill Russell and Bob Cousy, ever previously did—the analysis of the journey's impact on his legacy is once again kicking into overdrive.
James is at the stage of his career where every move he makes carries historical significance. That's partly due to the fact that most of his box scores are altering the annals of the NBA. During this current playoff run, he's climbed to fourth in all-time postseason assists, sixth in scoring and seventh in steals.
But numbers alone only tell part of his story. His place inside the NBA's pantheon of greats won't solely be determined by the stat sheet.
For one reason or another, titles have typically been viewed as one of the most defining measures of dominance. The fact that it takes an entire team to pull off such a feat holds little water to those who criticize James' career 2-3 record in the Finals.
Even some who argue for his spot atop the league's all-time pecking order wish his jewelry collection was a little bigger to bolster their case.
"The only thing that he's missing is a couple more championships and then it's a wrap," Cleveland center Kendrick Perkins said, via Haynes. "Right now we have arguably the best player to ever play the game. I'm just saying man. I'm not taking anything away from (Michael) Jordan, but all (James is) missing is titles."
For everything James has accomplished to date, winning this title would be his greatest achievement. Between the pressures of winning at home, the injury issues on his team and the strength of his opponent, this is a test unlike any he's ever faced. And even though we don't like betting against the King, this exam doesn't look like one he'll pass.
Who Wears the NBA Crown?
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James hasn't relinquished his throne as the best player on the planet, but Curry has been nipping at the King's heels all season.
It was Curry, not James, who received the most fan votes for this season's All-Star Game. Curry also topped James in both real plus-minus and wins above replacement, per ESPN.com.
Billing this as a series between both superstars undermines the roles their supporting casts and coaching staffs will have on this outcome. But years from now, that's the way this heavyweight prizefight will be remembered.
"This will go down as the LeBron vs. Curry NBA Finals," wrote NBC Sports' Kurt Helin. "The only question is which one will get the Finals MVP Award."
The Dubs defense is built to bother James, so much as one can reasonably frustrate a four-time MVP. They have a slew of long-limbed, athletic, intelligent roadblocks to put in his path: Draymond Green, Harrison Barnes, Andre Iguodala, Klay Thompson and Shaun Livingston.
Curry will also see a constant supply of length, physicality and defensive attention. Stopping the Warriors starts with running him off the three-point line. What happens once he slips inside the arc might determine which championship thirst is quenched.
Chances are both superstars masterfully play their parts. If that's the case, James won't lose control of his kingdom. But if Curry outperforms his all-world counterpart and takes home the Larry O'Brien Championship Trophy, this could quickly become a debate worth having.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
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